How long can the strength of domestic soybeans last?

Introduction: after the Spring Festival, domestic soybean prices not only didn't fall as expected, but also rose slightly, which made many market analysts fall sharply With the soybean harvest in South America in sight and the railway transportation capacity gradually alleviated, why are domestic soybeans still so strong? The trial analysis is as follows: the price of soybean meal and soybean oil after the first and second year of NYX supports the price of soybean Because some oil plants shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival, the price of soybean meal and soybean oil did not fall immediately after the Spring Festival, and the price of soybean meal even rebounded slightly, supporting the price of soybean Taking Harbin as an example, the price of soybean remained at 2360-2410 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal was 1930-2000 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean oil was 5950-6100 yuan / ton Considering the processing cost of 130 yuan / ton and the packaging cost of soybean meal, although the profit of the oil mill decreased and the profit was very limited, it could still be maintained NYX 2 The psychology of reluctant to sell still exists in NYX 1 After the railway transportation capacity has been slightly eased, the soybean stored in the platform in the early stage has gone southward, and the soybean storage in the warehouse and platform has decreased dramatically 2 Affected by the drought, the wheat output of Australia, Canada, the United States and other major wheat exporting countries in the world decreased significantly in 2002, which led to a sharp rise in the price of wheat in the international market, making it the first time for China's edible wheat to take the opportunity to export to Southeast Asian countries, driving up the price of domestic wheat The price of spring wheat in Heilongjiang Province has skyrocketed from 840 yuan / ton to 980 yuan / ton, and farmers' income from selling wheat has increased 3 The rising price of corn has increased farmers' expected income 4 In order to obtain the initiative of soybean purchase in autumn, some powerful middlemen are willing to provide fertilizer to the farm in the form of credit to strengthen the relationship with the farm, and the farm will return the principal and interest with soybean in autumn In this way, the financial pressure on the farm during spring sowing is greatly reduced The above factors contributed to the small surplus of soybeans among farmers' competitors to be sold So when prices fall, farmers reduce or stop selling NYX 3 The psychological support of futures price to the spot market was formed After a short adjustment years ago, NYX Liandou unexpectedly launched an upward attack The current situation of more money and less goods and the repeated exploration of the concept of domestic soybean non genetically modified make the Bulls confident and unwilling to attack along the way, and the futures market is again full of false fire The rise of futures price will undoubtedly form great psychological support for the spot market, which will further improve the expectation of spot merchants on the price The speculators who hold the spot in their hands will sit on the fishing platform and wait for the bull to raise the futures price before taking the opportunity to sell short NYX 4 The transgenic policy caused a short pause in the import of soybeans from December to January 2002, which reduced the arrival of imported soybeans before and after the year According to relevant data, NYX imported 1060703 tons of soybeans in December 2002, 456500 tons in January 2003 and 1231900 tons in February 2003 In February, the imported soybeans mainly arrived at home in the middle and lower inquiry, while Guangdong did not import soybeans in January and February It can be seen from the above data that, due to the influence of genetically modified policies, soybean imports decreased significantly in January 2003 NYX v the rapid expansion of domestic crushing capacity leads to the increase of prices According to relevant statistics, the annual soybean crushing capacity in China has reached 50 million tons by the end of 2002, and is expected to expand to 66 million tons in 2003 However, the domestic crushing demand is 21.6 million tons, and the operating rate of oil mills is less than 50% 8-9 million tons of domestic soybeans are used for oil extraction The north and South oil plants have been fighting for limited domestic soybeans The massive purchase of speculators in the future makes the fight for resources more intense In the case of more wolves and less meat, the price of domestic soybeans will naturally rise NYX 6 Policy support is an important psychological guarantee for soybean prices to remain strong NYX 2003 will continue to promote the cultivation of high-yield and high-oil soybeans in the main soybean producing areas of Northeast China and provide subsidies It is reported that the soybean output of Heilongjiang Province was 5.56 million tons in 2002, while it is expected to reach 7 million tons in 2003, an increase of 26% It can be seen that the enthusiasm and confidence of farmers to sow soybeans are unprecedented after policy support and substantial benefits of soybean price rise in 2002 NYX, however, there are two sides to the development of everything, namely, prosperity and decline At present, the negative factors of soybean market have turned strong, and the fundamentals are changing NYX 1 The long-term trend of soybean prices in the international market is bearish In 2002 / 03, the main soybean producing areas in South America were in good weather It seems that the weather has become more and more difficult to stop the pace of soybean harvest in South America Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is expected to reach 51 million tons and 33.5 million tons in 2002 / 03, respectively Due to the substantial increase of soybean production in South America, America's position in the world soybean trade is being weakened Experts in the United States believe that it is not appropriate to pay too much attention to the soybean stock in the United States The key factor is the total soybean stock in the Western Hemisphere, which will reach a record 120 million tons in the spring of 2003 The U.S Department of agriculture also said at an earlier annual forum that U.S soybean prices would fall in 2003 / 04 NYX 2 Compared with the international market, the price of domestic soybeans is significantly higher At present, the base price of Brazil soybeans for April shipment is CNF, which is US $234 / T in China, and about 2330 / T after duty paid landing As we all know, in fact, a large part of Brazil's soybeans are not GM soybeans, but GM soybeans are planted in some areas near Argentina, which is about 30% of Brazil's soybean production It is estimated that if Brazil's non GM soybeans are strictly sub packed, sub transported and sub stored, the cost will increase by about 100 yuan per ton That is to say, the price of Brazil's Non GMO soybeans shipped in April after duty paid and landed in China is 2430 yuan / ton At present, the price of domestic soybean to Dalian has risen to 2600 yuan / ton Due to the high price of domestic soybeans, Dalian oil plants have turned to purchase imported soybeans In February, two ships of 100500 tons of imported soybeans arrived at Dalian port According to the report of national grain and oil information center, the output of domestic rapeseed in 2003 will reach 12.4 million tons, an increase of 17.8% compared with 10.53 million tons in 2002 The yield of rapeseed is 2-3 times higher than that of soybean The increase of domestic rapeseed production will undoubtedly put pressure on soybean oil market There are many reasons for the high price of soybeans in China, but it must be noted that the fundamentals of soybeans have changed and the negative factors have increased Colorful soap bubbles are beautiful, but when they are broken, there is nothing left
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