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Recently, the spot price of hogs, which has been sideways for a while, has once again experienced a rapid decline
.
According to data from business agencies, the reference price of pigs (foreign three yuan) on January 9 was 15.
8 yuan / kg, which has fallen by 11.
4% from January 1 and 30.
59%
from the previous month.
"Affected by the upcoming Spring Festival in recent days, there are significantly more customers who come to buy pork, plus the price of pork is much cheaper than last month, and customers who come to buy meat are buying as much as possible, and pork sales have increased
significantly recently.
" A raw meat sales worker in a supermarket in Beijing told
the "Securities Daily" reporter.
According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, from January 3 to January 6, the national average pig grain ratio was 5.
93:1, in accordance with the "Improve the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Price Stability in the Pork Market", entering the three-level early warning range of excessive decline
.
It is worth mentioning that from the recent production and sales briefings released by listed companies in the pig breeding sector, although pig prices fell in December 2022, they are still in a high position year-on-year, and the number of pig sales of pig enterprises in the same period has increased significantly year-on-year, and the pig sales revenue of many pig enterprises in December 2022 is very gratifying
.
Oversupply leads to sluggish prices
In the futures market, as of the close of January 9, the main hog contract was reported at 15,760 yuan / ton, up 0.
06% on the day, and has fallen by 2.
38%
this year.
Yin Pengfei, senior investment consultant of East High-tech, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the recent continuous decline in pig prices is related
to factors such as the rapid increase in supply and the recovery of demand is less than expected.
Yin Pengfei introduced that from the perspective of supply, due to the continuous rise in pig prices from June to August 2022, many farmers chose to reduce the number of pigs slaughtered, and as the time entered the third quarter, many departments took action to stabilize pig prices and urge pig enterprises to increase the number of pigs, and the market supply began to continue to grow until December
.
At the same time, if the pig exceeds 230 pounds, the speed of long meat will be reduced, the pig-to-food ratio will gradually decrease, and after more than 260 pounds, the fat is too thick, and the price of pigs will also fall, resulting in panic among many farmers and the phenomenon
of concentrated slaughter.
On the other hand, the downstream slaughtering enterprises are affected by the consumer side, the sales volume is not good, and the slaughtered meat will increase more expenses if it is stored all the time, so in order to maximize profits, slaughtering enterprises choose to directly reduce the price of promoting pork, which also causes the continuous decline
in pig prices.
"In terms of demand, domestic demand for pork consumption is relatively constant, since 2022, affected by the new crown epidemic, consumer demand is weak and at present, the full recovery of the catering industry still takes time, although according to past experience, the pig market will have better expectations for New Year's Day and Spring Festival pork consumption, but the consumption of pork on New Year's Day in 2023 is obviously less than expected, and it is expected that the Spring Festival will also be difficult to have a peak consumption season, so it is difficult to support the current pig price
.
" Yin Pengfei said
.
According to business agency data, from June 1 to August 31, 2022, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) increased from 15.
6 yuan/kg to 22.
8 yuan/kg, a cumulative increase of 46.
15%.
Yuan Shuai, executive vice president of the Agricultural Cultural Tourism Industry Revitalization Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that on the whole, although the recent pig price has fallen too quickly, there is no overcapacity in domestic pigs, and the weak market consumption is temporary.
For the question of when the decline in pig prices will continue, Yin Pengfei believes that during the New Year's Day of 2023, the supply of pigs is abundant, the slaughtering enterprises receive goods smoothly, the inventory is sufficient, and the demand for superimposed holidays is limited.
Against this backdrop, pig prices are expected to begin to gradually strengthen
in February.
"Because the current number of breeding sows is gradually decreasing, after the concentrated release of the early supply, the supply of pigs will continue to decrease in the future, resulting in a certain degree of recovery in pig prices after the Spring Festival
.
"
Many pig enterprises increased their sales revenue considerably in December last year
In fact, as Yin Pengfei said, the pig supply of many pig breeding enterprises in December 2022 remained at a high level
.
According to the reporter's statistics, up to now, among the 10 listed companies in the pig breeding (Shenwan) sector of the A-share market, 6 have released sales briefings for December 2022, and all have achieved year-on-year growth according to the number of pig sales, of which 2 have increased by about 20% year-on-year, and 4 have increased between 30% and 60% year-on-year
.
It is worth noting that although the current pig price is in a downward trend, it is still in a high range compared with the same period in 2021, coupled with the significant recovery in the number of pig sales of pig enterprises, the pig sales business income of many listed companies in the pig breeding sector has been significantly increased
in December 2022.
In terms of sector valuation, as of the close of trading on January 9, the sector index was 6713.
02 points, up 2.
35%
on the day.
Professor Hong Tao, president of China Food (Agricultural Products) Safety E-commerce Research Institute, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the first half of 2022, almost all pig enterprises are not optimistic, and in the second half of the year, pig enterprises have obtained good profits in the rise and fall of pig prices, and the profit growth of large-scale breeding enterprises with better management is also larger
.
"2023 will be a year of rapid recovery of China's economy, and the consumer market, including catering, will also recover rapidly, and the recovery effect of the catering market will be reflected during the Spring Festival in 2023
.
" This is also a good thing for pig enterprises, but the final development of pig enterprises depends on 'chain development' in addition to pork prices, so as to avoid the risks caused by price fluctuations, enhance the ability of enterprises to resist risks and improve market competitiveness
.
Hong Tao said
.
;
;Recently, the spot price of hogs, which has been sideways for a while, has once again experienced a rapid decline
.
According to data from business agencies, the reference price of pigs (foreign three yuan) on January 9 was 15.
8 yuan / kg, which has fallen by 11.
4% from January 1 and 30.
59%
from the previous month.
"Affected by the upcoming Spring Festival in recent days, there are significantly more customers who come to buy pork, plus the price of pork is much cheaper than last month, and customers who come to buy meat are buying as much as possible, and pork sales have increased
significantly recently.
" A raw meat sales worker in a supermarket in Beijing told
the "Securities Daily" reporter.
According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, from January 3 to January 6, the national average pig grain ratio was 5.
93:1, in accordance with the "Improve the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Price Stability in the Pork Market", entering the three-level early warning range of excessive decline
.
It is worth mentioning that from the recent production and sales briefings released by listed companies in the pig breeding sector, although pig prices fell in December 2022, they are still in a high position year-on-year, and the number of pig sales of pig enterprises in the same period has increased significantly year-on-year, and the pig sales revenue of many pig enterprises in December 2022 is very gratifying
.
Oversupply leads to sluggish prices
Oversupply leads to sluggish pricesIn the futures market, as of the close of January 9, the main hog contract was reported at 15,760 yuan / ton, up 0.
06% on the day, and has fallen by 2.
38%
this year.
Yin Pengfei, senior investment consultant of East High-tech, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the recent continuous decline in pig prices is related
to factors such as the rapid increase in supply and the recovery of demand is less than expected.
Yin Pengfei introduced that from the perspective of supply, due to the continuous rise in pig prices from June to August 2022, many farmers chose to reduce the number of pigs slaughtered, and as the time entered the third quarter, many departments took action to stabilize pig prices and urge pig enterprises to increase the number of pigs, and the market supply began to continue to grow until December
.
At the same time, if the pig exceeds 230 pounds, the speed of long meat will be reduced, the pig-to-food ratio will gradually decrease, and after more than 260 pounds, the fat is too thick, and the price of pigs will also fall, resulting in panic among many farmers and the phenomenon
of concentrated slaughter.
On the other hand, the downstream slaughtering enterprises are affected by the consumer side, the sales volume is not good, and the slaughtered meat will increase more expenses if it is stored all the time, so in order to maximize profits, slaughtering enterprises choose to directly reduce the price of promoting pork, which also causes the continuous decline
in pig prices.
"In terms of demand, domestic demand for pork consumption is relatively constant, since 2022, affected by the new crown epidemic, consumer demand is weak and at present, the full recovery of the catering industry still takes time, although according to past experience, the pig market will have better expectations for New Year's Day and Spring Festival pork consumption, but the consumption of pork on New Year's Day in 2023 is obviously less than expected, and it is expected that the Spring Festival will also be difficult to have a peak consumption season, so it is difficult to support the current pig price
.
" Yin Pengfei said
.
According to business agency data, from June 1 to August 31, 2022, the price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) increased from 15.
6 yuan/kg to 22.
8 yuan/kg, a cumulative increase of 46.
15%.
Yuan Shuai, executive vice president of the Agricultural Cultural Tourism Industry Revitalization Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that on the whole, although the recent pig price has fallen too quickly, there is no overcapacity in domestic pigs, and the weak market consumption is temporary.
For the question of when the decline in pig prices will continue, Yin Pengfei believes that during the New Year's Day of 2023, the supply of pigs is abundant, the slaughtering enterprises receive goods smoothly, the inventory is sufficient, and the demand for superimposed holidays is limited.
Against this backdrop, pig prices are expected to begin to gradually strengthen
in February.
"Because the current number of breeding sows is gradually decreasing, after the concentrated release of the early supply, the supply of pigs will continue to decrease in the future, resulting in a certain degree of recovery in pig prices after the Spring Festival
.
"
Many pig enterprises increased their sales revenue considerably in December last year
Many pig enterprises increased their sales revenue considerably in December last yearIn fact, as Yin Pengfei said, the pig supply of many pig breeding enterprises in December 2022 remained at a high level
.
According to the reporter's statistics, up to now, among the 10 listed companies in the pig breeding (Shenwan) sector of the A-share market, 6 have released sales briefings for December 2022, and all have achieved year-on-year growth according to the number of pig sales, of which 2 have increased by about 20% year-on-year, and 4 have increased between 30% and 60% year-on-year
.
It is worth noting that although the current pig price is in a downward trend, it is still in a high range compared with the same period in 2021, coupled with the significant recovery in the number of pig sales of pig enterprises, the pig sales business income of many listed companies in the pig breeding sector has been significantly increased
in December 2022.
In terms of sector valuation, as of the close of trading on January 9, the sector index was 6713.
02 points, up 2.
35%
on the day.
Professor Hong Tao, president of China Food (Agricultural Products) Safety E-commerce Research Institute, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the first half of 2022, almost all pig enterprises are not optimistic, and in the second half of the year, pig enterprises have obtained good profits in the rise and fall of pig prices, and the profit growth of large-scale breeding enterprises with better management is also larger
.
"2023 will be a year of rapid recovery of China's economy, and the consumer market, including catering, will also recover rapidly, and the recovery effect of the catering market will be reflected during the Spring Festival in 2023
.
" This is also a good thing for pig enterprises, but the final development of pig enterprises depends on 'chain development' in addition to pork prices, so as to avoid the risks caused by price fluctuations, enhance the ability of enterprises to resist risks and improve market competitiveness
.
Hong Tao said
.
