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World food import bills are expected to rise to $1.
94 trillion in 2022, higher than previously expected
, according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
94 trillion in 2022, higher than previously expected
, according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
FAO's new food outlook forecasts will be at a record high, up 10 percent from the record level in 2021, but are expected to slow
due to rising world food prices and the depreciation of many currencies against the US dollar.
Both food prices and currency factors put pressure on the purchasing power of importing countries, which in turn affects the volume of food imports
.
due to rising world food prices and the depreciation of many currencies against the US dollar.
Both food prices and currency factors put pressure on the purchasing power of importing countries, which in turn affects the volume of food imports
.
Most of the increase in import bills was contributed by high-income countries, mainly due to higher world prices, while imports are also expected to rise
.
Economically vulnerable countries collectively are hit harder
by higher prices.
In low-income countries, for example, while their total food import bills are expected to be almost flat, imports are expected to fall by 10 percent, indicating a growing food access situation
.
.
Economically vulnerable countries collectively are hit harder
by higher prices.
In low-income countries, for example, while their total food import bills are expected to be almost flat, imports are expected to fall by 10 percent, indicating a growing food access situation
.
The report, prepared by FAO's Markets and Trade Division, warns that "from a food security perspective, these are worrying signs that importing countries are struggling to afford rising international costs and may signal the limits of their resilience to rising international prices"
.
.
The Food Outlook, which analyses food trade by food commodity category, warns that existing gaps are likely to widen further, with high-income countries continuing to import a wide range of food commodities and developing regions increasingly focusing on staple food commodities
.
In this context, FAO welcomes the IMF's approval of the Food Shock Window, a mechanism broadly based on FAO's proposed Food Import Financing Facility, an important step towards
alleviating the burden of soaring food import costs in low-income countries.
.
In this context, FAO welcomes the IMF's approval of the Food Shock Window, a mechanism broadly based on FAO's proposed Food Import Financing Facility, an important step towards
alleviating the burden of soaring food import costs in low-income countries.
The Food Outlook also assesses the global import bill
for agricultural inputs, including fertilizers.
Global input import spending is expected to rise to $424 billion in 2022, up 48% year-on-year and 112%
from 2020.
for agricultural inputs, including fertilizers.
Global input import spending is expected to rise to $424 billion in 2022, up 48% year-on-year and 112%
from 2020.
Growth is expected to be based on rising costs of imported energy and fertilizers
.
Both dominate import spending, putting current account pressure
on low- and lower-middle-income countries.
As a result, some countries may be forced to reduce the use of inputs, which will almost inevitably lead to lower levels of agricultural production and reduced
domestic food supplies.
"The negative impact on global agricultural output and food security" is likely to extend into 2023
, FAO said.
.
Both dominate import spending, putting current account pressure
on low- and lower-middle-income countries.
As a result, some countries may be forced to reduce the use of inputs, which will almost inevitably lead to lower levels of agricultural production and reduced
domestic food supplies.
"The negative impact on global agricultural output and food security" is likely to extend into 2023
, FAO said.
Food trends
Published annually, the Food Outlook reviews market availability and consumption trends for the world's major food commodities, covering cereals, oil crops, sugar, meat, dairy products and fish
.
Trends in ocean freight rates are reflected
in the report.
Most of the major commodities covered in the report are at or near record levels, but a number of factors point to tighter
markets ahead.
.
Trends in ocean freight rates are reflected
in the report.
Most of the major commodities covered in the report are at or near record levels, but a number of factors point to tighter
markets ahead.
World wheat production in 2022/23 is expected to hit a record high
of 784 million tonnes, supported by a sharp recovery in harvests in Canada and Russia.
That will push global wheat stocks to record levels, but the report notes that inventories are expected to be concentrated in China and Russia, while inventory levels in the rest of the world are expected to fall by 8 percent
.
of 784 million tonnes, supported by a sharp recovery in harvests in Canada and Russia.
That will push global wheat stocks to record levels, but the report notes that inventories are expected to be concentrated in China and Russia, while inventory levels in the rest of the world are expected to fall by 8 percent
.
Stocks of coarse grains are expected to fall to their lowest level
since 2013 as stocks are expected to fall as a result of lower stocks due to lower coarse grain production in major countries.
Global coarse grain production forecast for 2022 is forecast to fall by 2.
8% to 1.
467 billion tonnes
.
While world rice production is likely to decline in 2022/23, it is expected to remain average
overall, thanks to resilient planting levels in Asia and a rebound in production in Africa.
since 2013 as stocks are expected to fall as a result of lower stocks due to lower coarse grain production in major countries.
Global coarse grain production forecast for 2022 is forecast to fall by 2.
8% to 1.
467 billion tonnes
.
While world rice production is likely to decline in 2022/23, it is expected to remain average
overall, thanks to resilient planting levels in Asia and a rebound in production in Africa.
Global oil crop production is expected to rebound to record high levels in MY 2022/23, with expected increases in soybean and rapeseed production offsetting a possible decline in sunflower seed production
.
.
Global sugar production is also expected to expand, supported by a sharp pick-up in Brazil and expectations of higher production in China and Thailand, while consumption growth will also slow
over the same period.
over the same period.
Global meat and dairy production is expected to increase slightly in 2022, while total global fisheries and aquaculture production is expected to increase by 1.
2%, with an expected 2.
6% increase in aquaculture production, more than offsetting a small decline
in fisheries capture production.
2%, with an expected 2.
6% increase in aquaculture production, more than offsetting a small decline
in fisheries capture production.
