Guangfa Futures: November spot pressure dominates soybean market

Introduction: at present, the purchase price of soybeans in Heilongjiang soybean production area has declined in an all-round way The purpose of price reduction of oil plants around the production area is obvious The profit of domestic soybeans crushing is now higher than that of imported soybeans, and the international oil price has declined The continuous growth of the number of domestic oil plants has made it impossible for the fund to continue to increase its short position The registered warehouse receipt of soybeans has become the focus of the market Part I overview of soybean market In October, affected by the National Day holiday, there are only 16 effective trading days, and the soybean market continues the downward trend of last month; on October 11, under the influence of the rumors of RMB interest rate rise, the main contract a501 broke through 2640 frontline in one fell swoop, marking that the oscillation platform of the long camp in September was broken On October 12, under the influence of the negative monthly report of the USDA, CBOT Soybean fell 30 cents on the same day, and the domestic soybean market fell simultaneously on October 13 On October 18, a501, the main contract, broke through 2600 lines at one stroke with the cooperation of large-scale warehouse expansion Then, the soybean market rebounded in two trading days, indicating that the main bulls began to intervene in the market As the soybean harvest in the northeast of China exceeded half, the soybean oil and soybean meal market fell sharply, and the soybean market It is difficult to mobilize the popularity of long market, and the two-day rebound line was then strongly rejected According to the price difference between CBOT soybean and Dalian soybean, the price difference between the two markets in October was smaller than that of last month, which shows that the operation of Dalian soybean in October was weaker than that of CBOT soybean market, and the cross market arbitrage between the two markets entered the market, which is the main reason for this phenomenon Overall, the price difference between CBOT soybean market was 500% Cents is an extremely important psychological barrier, and the market divergence of the long and short camp on this front line is obviously increasing Therefore, we believe that with the net of bad news, the possibility of the two cities to continue to develop a strong structure is unlikely, and the opportunity for the soybean market to fluctuate significantly is increasing (Figure 1, figure 2) Figure 1 soybean 1 0501 [DCE] daily line figure 2 meidou 11 [CBOT] daily line part 2 spot market situation in Northeast China in October, the harvest of new soybean was almost half, some areas have ended, the market supply has been significantly enlarged; the domestic soybean spot market price was affected by the market of new soybean The overall trend continues to decline The purchase price of Xindou is between 1.25-1.28 yuan / Jin, and the transaction scale is small Because market demand has not yet formed, traders are afraid to wait and see a lot of goods Bean farmers are reluctant to sell At present, the purchase price of the second-class soybean market in Heilongjiang Province is generally between 2500-2540 yuan / ton, down 12.8% from the same period last month; the purchase price of the second-class soybean market in Jilin Province is generally 2500 yuan / ton, down 19.8% from the same period last month; the purchase price of the middle-class soybean in Liaoning Province is generally 2640 yuan / ton, down 17.5% from the same period last month; the purchase price of the middle-class soybean in Beijing and Tianjin is 2720 yuan / ton, down 12.8% from the same period last month In the same period, the price of medium-sized soybeans in Hebei Province decreased by 16.3%, 2750 yuan / ton, 16.6% lower than that in the previous month, and 2800 yuan / ton in Shandong Province, 17.6% lower than that in the same period last month Soybean prices in major domestic ports continued to fall, staying at 2800 yuan / ton, down 9.6% from the same period last month In the aspect of soybean oil, the price of soybean oil also fell sharply after the national day The price of soybean oil across the country dropped 400 yuan / ton compared with the end of September, while the price of soybean oil in the main soybean producing areas dropped as much as 650-750 yuan / ton At present, the price of soybean oil in various regions has dropped from 6500 yuan / ton to 6000 yuan / ton on average, and some regions have fallen below the integer level The main factors driving the price decline of soybean oil are the large increase in the quantity of imported soybean oil, the increase in the output of crushing plants and the centralized sale of soybean oil in stock before the implementation of the new standard for edible oil The price of grade 4 soybean oil in Dalian market is generally 5600-6000 yuan / ton; the price of grade 4 soybean oil in Shandong market is 6200-6300 yuan / ton; the price of grade 4 soybean oil in Tianjin market is generally 5700-6000 yuan / ton; the price of grade 4 soybean oil in Jiangsu region is generally 5800 yuan / ton; the price of Huangpu in Guangzhou is 5480 yuan / ton As for the soybean meal market, up to the middle of October, 43% of the factory price of protein soybean meal in the Pearl River Delta of Guangdong Province was still between 3000-3100 yuan / ton, and 2980-3050 yuan / ton in Zhanjiang At the same time, the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong Province remained at 2870-2900 yuan / ton, and the price difference between the two places remained at a high level of 100-150 yuan / ton Liaoning soybean meal report 2700 yuan / ton, the market reflects the local 2660 yuan / ton deal, local export difficulties, slow shipment The supply of soybean in Dalian is insufficient, which makes the price stable The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is relatively stable, 2700 yuan / ton in Zhangjiagang and 2650 yuan / ton in Lianyungang The overall transaction is general, and the purchase of feed enterprises is cautious A large soybean processing plant in Shandong Province chose to shut down because of the obvious loss of processing benefits The main reasons for the shut down were the rapid drop of soybean oil price and the continuous downturn of soybean meal price The relatively low price domestic soybean demand did not increase Based on the soybean oil and soybean meal prices in East China and North China and the imported soybean prices, most of the soybean processing plants in the above areas are in a loss position, the refining sector is in a loss state, and Hebei and Beijing Tianjin regions are in the worst loss There are significant regional differences in domestic soybean meal market prices Part III soybean import and export According to the statistical data of the customs, from January to September 2004, China's soybean imports totaled 13.9546 million tons, a decrease of 21.21% compared with the same period of last year, of which the imports in September were 1.4498 million tons, a decrease of 51.5% compared with the same period of last year In the middle of October, the new arrival of imported soybeans was about 575000 tons, most of which were concentrated in South China It is expected that the total monthly arrival of soybeans will be 1.8 million tons Right At present, the soybean inventory of major domestic ports is 1.972 million tons, and the inventory carried forward last month is 2.6429 million tons In September, China exported 15474 tons of soybeans, mainly from Japan and South Korea The fourth part is the analysis of the hot factors that affect the soybean trend in November First, the current soybean purchase price in Heilongjiang soybean production area has declined in an all-round way The trend of purchasing price decline of new soybean in Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area, seems to be more and more intense At present, the purchasing price of traders near Harbin is 2.50-2.56 yuan / kg, and that of traders in the surrounding areas is 2.20-2.40 yuan / kg Small soybean processing enterprises have a large loss, especially restricting the time and strength of purchasing new soybeans, which is the main reason for the high price of domestic new soybeans this year; in addition, due to the obvious improvement of squeezing profit, the increase of operating rate and the increase of soybean meal supply, the consumption peak of downstream products such as poultry, meat and eggs has declined after the festival, and many factors have promoted the price of soybean meal The sharp decline of Georgia, in turn, dragged down the continuous decline of soybean prices Because they are not eager to cash in, while the price of domestic soybean is falling, most farmers are reluctant to sell If the international market price under the influence of the increase of supply quantity causes the cost price of imported soybean to continue to decrease, the price of domestic soybean market will also decrease, and the price of domestic soybean will remain weak in the later period 2 The intention of the oil plants around the production area is obvious It is understood that the profit of the domestic soybean crushing is now higher than that of the imported soybean At present, the oil plants around the production area have not started to purchase the domestic soybean in a large scale, and are still waiting for its price to fall further, so as to make a calculation for the later large-scale purchase At present, most of the oil plants in the spot market seem to have "tacit agreement" to continue to suspend the purchase work, whose intention is undoubtedly to force farmers to reduce the price of sales; it is reported that the purchase price of some sites in Harbin area is now close to 2500 yuan / ton At present, the price of domestic soybeans has dropped significantly, and the oil factories around the production area have found that the profit of squeezing domestic soybeans is higher than that of importing soybeans Taking Dalian as an example, the price of domestic soybean delivered to the local soybean factory in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang Province is only about 2560 yuan / ton, while the cost of imported soybean is generally about 2800 yuan / ton in the local oil factory at present, and the price of local soybean oil and soybean meal are 5600 yuan / ton and 2550 yuan / ton respectively, so the profit of domestic soybean is calculated to be 150-200 yuan / ton higher than that of imported soybean III international oil price fell and the number of domestic oil plants started to increase continuously Since October, the purchase price of domestic soybeans has been significantly higher and lower However, due to the impact of the early CBOT soybean and soybean oil period price continued to fall, the arrival cost of domestic imported soybeans and crude soybean oil and other raw materials has also decreased significantly, which makes the profit level of soybean crushing enterprises show a further improvement compared with the previous period In recent years, in South China, East China, North China and Northeast China, the soybean crushing profits of local oil plants are respectively 400 yuan / ton, 400-450 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton and 250 yuan / ton, while in September, the profits of local oil plants are negative 100-200 yuan / ton It can be seen that the obvious improvement of domestic soybean squeezing profit in the near future has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of oil plants to start production However, with the centralized listing of domestic soybean, the stock pressure of soybean oil market in some regions will still increase Before and after the two festivals, the negative effects of "environmental factors" such as domestic oil macro policies, supply and demand, and manufacturer's sales psychology on the whole country led to the difficulty in October this year, especially the obvious weakening of the restrictions on crude soybean oil import imposed by the new standards, plus the external CBOT The continuous decline of soybean oil price in the period led to the decline of import crude soybean oil market, which caused the spot traders in many port areas to suffer serious losses In the early stage, some manufacturers who increased the buying strength and were reluctant to sell and hoard were eager to make up for the losses As a result, soybean oil prices across the country fell IV Liandou's registered warehouse receipt becomes the market focus Since August, the registered warehouse receipts of Dalian exchange have been declining day by day In recent years, they have been kept at the level of 36 hands, which is far from the previous year's position level In normal years, the position level of this period has been kept between 10000 and 20000 hands, which provides the imagination space for bull speculation We think this phenomenon shows the following problems 1 The decrease of warehouse receipts indicates the current situation in Dalian The domestic soybean spot supply is insufficient 2 Although the soybean harvest in Northeast China is more than half, the phenomenon of large-scale purchase has not occurred The lower spot price one by one not only makes soybean farmers reluctant to sell, but also makes buyers wait-and-see 3 The bottleneck of transportation from Northeast China to Dalian will be revealed again, which is also one of the important factors affecting the soybean market over the years These factors bring difficulties to the formation of registered warehouse receipts of Dalian exchange The long camp is confident that the short camp will not be able to organize effective sources of goods in a short period of time In the case that the number of spot contract warehouse receipts cannot be increased rapidly, the regional contradiction between soybean supply and demand has been formed, the possibility of strong decline of Dalian soybean is unlikely, the opportunity of bull camp entering the market is increased, and the change of the number of registered warehouse receipts will become an important factor in the later operation of soybean market The fifth part interprets the USDA monthly report From the USDA's soybean monthly report released in October, it can be seen that the soybean production in the United States has increased sharply, which has brought about a rapid increase in soybean inventory in the United States and the world It is expected that the global soybean market will face heavy supply pressure in 2004 / 2005 The most surprising data provided by USDA in this month's report is the yield per unit area and total yield of us soybeans