Guangdong: The price of pigs in the third quarter will break through the high of 40 yuan/kg and sell a pig.

Recently, the Guangdong Provincial Agriculture and Rural Affairs Department released the "First Half of 2020 in Guangdong Province pig production and marketing situation analysis", analysis pointed out that the first half of the year due to the severe de-production capacity last year, pork supply overall tight, compared with the second half of last year decreased.
supply fell 36% in the first half of the year from the second half of last year, and supply in the second quarter increased by 15% from the first quarter.
, because of high pig prices, the first half of the year is in a period of high profitability, self-breeding each out of the column of a pig can get the equivalent of 10 pigs in 2018 profits.
analysis forecast, the second half of the pig column price is still high operation, the overall supply is still tight, especially in July and August supply in a large shortage position, significantly lower than the first half of the average monthly level.
therefore, the price of commodity meat pigs will have a large increase in the third quarter, the high point is expected to exceed 40 yuan / kg! In the first half of 2020, Guangdong Province pig production and marketing situation analysis pig storage column continued to recover, basic ally guarantee pork supply to the province's pig, can breed sow end storage column change trend chart in the first half of this year pig production capacity continued to recover to good, although the impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak, but the base to speed up the pig supplement, the overall production capacity to resume The end of the storage column and the end of the sow column have been significantly improved, monitoring base pig end column decreased by 24% compared with the same period last year, but compared with the end of 2019 increased by 13%, can breed sows continue to supplement, mainly for the three-yuan sow supplement, so the end of the column increased by 11% compared to the end of 2019, an increase of 7% over the same period last year, for the second half of the production capacity supply laid a certain foundation.
expects the province's pig final column of 14.449 million in the first half of the year, up 1% YoY, up 4% from the end of the first quarter, can breed sows at the end of the end of the column 1.558 million head, up 19% YoY, up 5% from the end of the first quarter.
the province's pork out of the column and pork production change trend chart at the same time, the province's pork supply is basically guaranteed, the first half of the commodity pig out of the column is expected to 13.628 million head, down 21% YoY, pork production of 1.174 million tons, down 10% YoY, higher than the level in the third quarter of last year.
the gradual recovery of pig supply, pork prices continued to decline in the first half of the year due to last year's severe de-production, pork supply overall tight, lower than the second half of last year, including the first quarter due to the impact of the epidemic supply tight, the second quarter with the outbreak of relief, supply gradually increased, the market pork prices fell.
pork out price, white meat wholesale price trend chart according to the provincial agricultural information monitoring system data: the first half of the supply decreased by 36% compared to the second half of last year, but the supply in the second quarter than the first quarter increased by 15%, effectively protect the market supply, commodity pig prices also fell accordingly, the average price of the second quarter fell to 35 yuan / kg, 14% yoy, up 135% yo-yo, but the end of June with the supply of 135 yuan
the wholesale price of white meat fell to 42.6 yuan/kg in the second quarter, down 16% month-on-month and still up 143% year-on-year.
the increase in the cost of production and breeding, the increase in profit of the column head is larger since the cost of self-breeding base commodity meat pigs out of the column and the overall increase in the cost of breeding month-on-month change chart.
the first half of the pig farming industry costs have a large change, self-breeding base per commodity pig out of the column cost of 2164.4 yuan, an increase of 33% year-on-year.
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of which corn, soybean meal as the main raw materials to form the cost of feed use has increased significantly, mainly due to the impact of the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, resulting in soybean meal, corn prices, coupled with the base breeding of large pigs, the corresponding increase in the cost of materials, feed costs of 1147.8 yuan / head, an increase of 18% YoY, accounting for 53%, epidemic prevention, water and electricity costs of 144.4 yuan / head
, an increase of 85% YoY, the largest increase, accounting for 7%, labor costs 137.7 yuan / head, an increase of 53% YoY, a 6% increase, vaccines and veterinary drugs 118.6 yuan / head, an increase of 5% YoY, 5% YoY.
self-breeding base on average out of the column profit change chart self-breeding base profit growth is larger, slaughter ingenuity loss.
the first half of the year to benefit from high prices, the base column of commodity pig head output value reached 4487.2 yuan, the average gross profit of 2567 yuan, compared with the fourth quarter of last year increased by 40%, an increase of more than 2400 yuan, gross margin rate of 57%, in a high profit period, each column of a pig can get the profit of 10 pigs in 2018.
production enterprises made a large profit, but the circulation market slaughter enterprises are serious losses, mainly due to the low slaughter volume, resulting in low income, the first half of the near loss.
the second half of the pig column price is still high operating supply side: the province's supply is tight.
pig storage column will continue to recover, but the overall production capacity recovery is slow, the first half of pigbirth slowly increased, the average monthly output than the second half of last year supply increased by 6%, meaning that the second half of the pig supply will gradually increase, according to the provincial agricultural information monitoring system data, the second half of the whole pig column will show growth The trend is expected to be a large increase in November supply, which can reach 2.831 million, an increase of nearly 600,000 heads per month over the first half of the year, and the overall supply is still tight, especially in July and August, when supply is in a largeshortage position, significantly lower than the average monthly level in the first half of the year.
the second half of the pork column price trend chart demand, market consumption gradually recovered, coupled with the second half of the Mid-Autumn National Day holiday and the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption season, pork consumption is expected to have a large rafter.
the second half of the pig recovery will continue to be good, but the third quarter is expected to be a supply shortage period, the fourth quarter supply will have a moderate recovery, so the price of commodity meat pigs will have a larger increase in the third quarter, the high point is expected to exceed 40 yuan / kg, with the supply recovery, the overall price will gradually fall back, is expected to fall back to 31 yuan / kg.
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