Grain price rise: positive effect is greater than negative effect

Introduction: in recent period, the price of grain and other agricultural and sideline products, such as pork and eggs, has increased What does 4GL think of this situation? The reporter recently interviewed Qin Qingwu, director of the Agricultural Economics Institute of Shandong Academy of social sciences 4GL reporter: Director Qin, what are the factors for the rise of grain price this time? 4GL Qin Qingwu: since 1998 and 1999, China's grain harvest in large areas, grain prices have been in a low state in recent years As we know, once there is surplus of grain as a product with very low demand elasticity, it will inevitably lead to the phenomenon of low market price and difficult for farmers to sell grain In recent years, the slow growth of farmers' income has a lot to do with the oversupply of grain and other agricultural and sideline products and the low price Since this year, the price of grain has gradually increased, which has been very obvious in the past two months There are three direct reasons: the first is the reduction of grain planting area In 2002, the sown area of grain in China was 104 million hectares, nearly 1000 hectares less than that in 1998 This year's total grain output is 2.4 million tons less than last year Second, since last year, some major food producing countries in North America and Europe have been affected by natural disasters, resulting in a substantial reduction in food production, which has led to rising international agricultural prices Third, after several years of digestion, the grain storage of peasant households has declined, and the whole grain market has begun to change from oversupply to balance supply and demand People's expectation of the change of the relationship between supply and demand of grain directly affects the fluctuation of grain price As an upstream product, the price rise of grain will inevitably affect the price rise of other agricultural and sideline products with grain as raw material, so the price rise feeling for people is multifaceted 4GL reporter: some people are worried that the increase in food prices will have a huge impact on the lives of residents What do you think? Qin Qingwu: I don't think that's necessary First, there is no large-scale food shortage in China at present On the contrary, the pattern of food supply exceeding demand has not changed as a whole There are still a lot of surplus grain in the hands of farmers and a large number of strategic grain reserves in the country Taking advantage of the opportunity of rising grain prices, some stored grain will flow into the market, thus stabilizing market prices Second, we should believe that the law of value can spontaneously regulate market supply As grain prices rise, so will farmers' enthusiasm for production At present, China's agricultural production capacity can fully meet the needs of the society for agricultural products When the output of grain and other agricultural products increases, the market price will naturally stabilize Third, from a global perspective, the problem of overcapacity in major food producing countries is very prominent, and the reduction of production is only a temporary phenomenon The price of international agricultural products will also fall after a certain rise, which will have an impact on the domestic grain market We should jump out of the past thinking mode of economy shortage In the past, we were only afraid of price rising, not price falling; now we should be more worried about the adverse effects of price falling or long-term price downturn For short-term price fluctuations should maintain a normal attitude 4GL reporter: in any case, the rising food price will have some impact on people's lives How to eliminate these impacts? 4GL Qin Qingwu: the rise in the price of grain and other agricultural and sideline products will definitely have an impact on people's lives For urban residents, the main feeling is that some low-income families If the price increase of grain and other agricultural and sideline products is high or lasts for a long time, the government should raise the minimum living guarantee line to ensure that this vulnerable group does not lead to a significant decline in living standards due to the fluctuation of market prices In the long run, rising prices of agricultural products are a good factor for the majority of the population 4GL reporter: as a scholar engaged in rural economic research, how do you think about the impact of this rising food price on agriculture and rural economic and social development? 4GL Qin Qingwu: to be realistic, I am very happy to see the price rise of grain and other agricultural and sideline products, because it is not a disaster, but a blessing for the development of agriculture and rural economy of our country, and even for the development of the whole national economy Specifically speaking, there are three aspects: first, the increase in the price of agricultural products will, to a certain extent, mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers in production and play a direct role in promoting agricultural development; it is conducive to changing the situation that the price of agricultural products is too low and does not match its value for a long time Second, it is conducive to increasing farmers' income and promoting rural economic development Increasing farmers' income is not only conducive to the development of rural economy and the construction of a well-off society in an all-round way in rural areas, but also provides impetus for accelerating the development of the whole national economy Third, the rise in the price of agricultural products has, in fact, sounded a wake-up call to the state and local governments at all levels for food security Agricultural development is related to the national economy and people's livelihood, economic development and the overall situation of social stability If there is no fluctuation for a long time, it will often encourage people's carelessness Recently, the central government has successively issued a series of measures, such as forbidding a large number of farmland occupation, wantonly infringing the interests of farmers, reducing the burden of farmers, and directly subsidizing the grain farmers in the process of industrialization and urbanization In short, I think that the positive effect of this increase in agricultural product prices may be far greater than the negative effect 4GL