Grain price is expected to fall soon after new grain goes on the market

Introduction: when the new grain is on the market, what's the trend of rice market in the later period? It has become the focus of attention of all walks of life The increase in grain production in summer and the expected harvest in autumn will help ease the pressure on China's grain supply, and the price of rice has fallen slightly, the reporter learned yesterday from relevant departments in Guangzhou According to the people in the grain market, the price of rice on the market is about 40 yuan per ton Industry insiders said that since the purchase of early rice is not yet fully launched, the impact on the price of rice at the end of sales is unpredictable, but it is certain that the increase in grain production will not lead to a sharp drop in grain prices In addition, due to the uncertainty of the grain production situation in the second half of the year, especially the weather situation, as well as the impact of the nationwide concentration of "controlling excess" on the freight transport, there may be variables in the price and market trend of early rice this year The purchase price is close to the minimum price "From the current market, the purchase market price of early rice is basically close to the minimum purchase price," a person from South China grain trading center in Guangdong Province introduced to reporters In order to support grain production and increase farmers' income, the state has previously set a minimum purchase price for some grains, of which the minimum purchase price for early rice is 70 yuan  50 kg The reporter learned that, at present, the purchase price of conventional early indica rice in Guangdong Province is 76 yuan  50 kg per 50 kg (the same below); the purchase price of medium quality early indica rice is 78 yuan  50 kg; the purchase price of high quality early indica rice is 80 yuan  50 kg As the first rice variety harvested in 2004, the change of yield of early indica rice directly affects the supply and demand of rice market this year According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on July 16, China's summer grain output in 2004 is expected to be 101.5 million tons, an increase of 4.804 million tons or 4.8% over 2003 According to an official from the research and development center of the State Council, if there is no serious natural disaster in the second half of 2004, the grain output in 2004 is expected to reach 455 million tons "The purchase price of early indica rice will not significantly exceed the minimum guaranteed price of the country," said Wu Zerong, an agricultural product analyst at Zhongtian futures R & D department First, due to the increase of supply, the market price began to fall Second, the minimum purchase price of Early Indica Rice announced by the state is far higher than the average purchase price in 2003, and the profit space for farmers to grow rice is guaranteed Third, the market demand weakens, and operators will not easily adopt the strategy of high price acquisition In addition, in the case of unclear market direction, the operational risk of acquisition significantly higher than the base price still exists In addition, due to the high minimum purchase price set by the state and the narrow profit space of operators, there will be no centralized rush to purchase at the beginning of the acquisition In this year's purchase market, the state-owned grain storage enterprises will be the main force in this year's early indica rice purchase market As an acquisition enterprise, the biggest difficulty encountered in the process of acquisition is the serious problem of farmers' reluctance to sell The supply and demand balance grain price will not fall sharply in the near future, and the rising grain price has begun to fall South China grain trading center told reporters that at present, the price of rice on the market is about 0.01-0.02 yuan per kilogram, that is, about 40 yuan per ton The celebrity also pointed out that since the purchase of early rice has not yet been fully launched and the new grain has not yet been officially listed, the impact on the price of rice at the sales terminal is unpredictable But it is certain that the increase in grain production will not lead to a sharp drop in grain prices The relevant departments in Guangzhou believe that "the current small drop in grain prices is a high callback, and there will be no sharp decline in grain prices." 　　 According to the analysis of relevant experts, there are two main reasons: first, the overall situation of grain supply and demand in China tends to be balanced, but the gap between production and demand still exists, the supply pressure is still tight, and the fall in price is a manifestation of the relaxed expectation of psychological pressure; second, the increase in summer grain partially alleviates people's established expectation of situation evaluation, but the total increase in summer grain production is small, which is not enough to control grain price Mainstream trend Wu Zerong told reporters that the price fluctuation of early rice market is not big, and national policies will play a major role in it On the one hand, it is the minimum purchase price policy formulated by the state Recently, the relevant departments issued a notice asking all localities to suspend the auction of stale grain and prevent the centralized delivery of grain These policies will effectively prevent grain prices from harming farmers and stabilize grain prices at a high level In addition, some people in the industry believe that the market price of early rice will hover around 150 yuan per 100 kg this year, with a maximum of 160 yuan and a minimum of 140 yuan This is also the price generally accepted by farmers, citizens and dealers Rice prices and market trends are variable In addition, some insiders are worried that due to the uncertainty of the grain production situation in the second half of the year, especially the weather situation, as well as the impact of the nationwide centralized management of overloaded vehicles on freight transport, there are still variables in the early rice prices and market trends this year People in the industry have different views on whether the market price of early rice is "high opening and high going" or "high opening and low going" The theory of "opening high and going high" is based on the worry about the bad weather situation in the second half of the year, and holds that it is difficult to increase the yield of late rice At present, many rice producing areas in South China are suffering from flood disaster, so it is difficult to harvest early rice and plant late rice The basis of the theory of "opening high and moving low" is to link up with the lowest purchase price of late rice of 144 yuan  100kg, and to worry about the impact of the current centralized "overload control" on freight transport Industry analysts believe that the severity of these two conditions may determine the range of "high" or "low" respectively, and the expected or actual changes of the two conditions will also make the early rice market price fluctuate If a single aspect is particularly serious, it is not ruled out that the market price of early rice per 100 kg is higher than 160 yuan or lower than 140 yuan in a specific period of time This will be the biggest variable in the early rice market this year