Grain and oil prices are expected to rise, and the inflection point forecast lacks data support

Introduction: authoritative people think that the situation that the supply exceeds the demand in the grain market has not fundamentally changed; the price rise of agricultural products in November may be lower than that in October, because this price rise is mainly determined by market factors, and market factors will also suppress the excessive growth of agricultural products prices ZZY The latest round of price hikes in domestic agricultural products seems to have caught people by surprise The price increase information from all over the country came in a flash, but the data analysis of the authoritative rural socio-economic survey team of the National Bureau of statistics shows that the impact of the price increase of agricultural products on the consumer price index of the whole population will not be clear until the figures of the bureau are analyzed in the middle of November According to the interview authority of ZZY financial times, "the increase of grain and oil prices since the middle of October is just a continuation of the previous increase of agricultural product prices, which is nothing more prominent in the near future The situation of supply exceeding demand in the whole agricultural product market and grain market has not fundamentally changed In fact, the price rise of agricultural products in November is likely to be lower than that in October " ZZY's "moderate rise" it's no accident that this rise in agricultural product prices has attracted social attention The market situation of the previous two months has been previewed At that time, there were even opinions predicting that "the turning point of grain price in 2004 or 2005 will come soon" According to the survey results of August released by the agricultural dispatching team of ZZY National Bureau of statistics on September 17, the prices of grain, cotton, oil, vegetables and fruits, main livestock products and aquatic products in August increased in varying degrees compared with the same period of last year, which is the first general increase in the prices of agricultural products in six years, which means that the situation of low prices of agricultural products that have long plagued farmers has turned around Recently, ZZY's financial times learned that the latest analysis of relevant agricultural product price data from the agricultural dispatching team of the Bureau of statistics has been released, but it is still in a 7-day confidentiality period and has not yet been released to the public From the information provided by other authoritative departments, the reporter has felt the change degree of the price rise of agricultural products ZZY takes the statistical data released by the price detection center of the national development and Reform Commission before October 20 as an example, the prices of grain and oil, as well as some agricultural and sideline products including vegetables and meat, in Henan, Hebei, Sichuan and other places are basically on the rise For example, sesame in Zhumadian grain and oil market in Henan Province increased from 9 yuan / kg at the beginning of October to 14 yuan / kg on the 15th, with an increase of 56%; the price of sesame oil for small mill also increased by 86%, with an increase of 26 yuan / kg; peanut oil, soybean oil, flour, corn, pork, etc were more than 10% higher than before According to the data provided by chinafood.com, the wholesale and purchase prices of grain and oil in various markets are also rising Zzy According to some data, from October 16 to 19, wheat prices in China's main production areas suddenly rose strongly, with an average increase of 40-80 yuan per ton, of which Henan Province, a major wheat Province, rose from 1020-1120 yuan per ton to 1090-1120 yuan, or even higher; corn prices rose by 80-120 yuan per ton in the same ratio in North China; in Anhui Province, rapeseed and rice prices rose by 80-120 yuan per ton compared with the same period last year They rose about 20% and 10% respectively However, Li Yongqiang, head of the rural socio economic survey team of the National Bureau of statistics, told reporters that the price of agricultural products has risen moderately since 2003, and now it is the same trend The price increase of ZZY in November is expected to decrease Some experts and authorities believe that the increase of grain and oil prices in November "may decrease", because the price increase "is mainly determined by market factors, and market factors will also suppress the excessive increase of agricultural product prices" The financial times also learned that the national development and Reform Commission is also investigating the market and studying countermeasures This may, to some extent, eliminate people's psychological expectation that prices are increasing too fast ZZY Li Yongqiang told reporters that the current price rise of some agricultural products is not the same as that in the 1990s At that time, the price rise occurred under the planned economy For the stable development of rural areas, the government took measures to raise the price of agricultural products At that time, the price was rigid Once it rose, the output of agricultural products would increase But different from the moderate rise of agricultural products, under the conditions of market economy, the price of agricultural products has risen today and may fall tomorrow; it is entirely based on market demand and supply relationship Lizy Li Yongqiang believes that the price rise of grain, oil and some agricultural products is a positive result of the adjustment of agricultural strategic structure in the past four years, and also a long-awaited event Since 2000, China's grain planting area has been reduced by about 50 million mu This has led to a reduction in grain production this year, a decrease in the state's grain inventory, and a rise in the price of imported grain and oil In the past, the more serious situation of supply exceeding demand has changed In addition, the state proposed the adjustment of agricultural strategic structure, the conversion of farmland to forest, and the enhancement of the development of animal husbandry and fishery In 2003, it launched the reform of grain circulation system, and a series of policies led to the stagnation of the continuous decline in the price of agricultural products Li Ke, an expert from the analysis and prediction Office of the national grain and oil information center of ZZY, said that in recent years, grain output has declined a lot, which is lower than the total domestic consumption in the last three to four years, and imports are relatively small, the national grain inventory is declining, the relationship between supply and demand is in the process of quantitative change, and the cumulative degree is very deep In the near future, the market price of edible oil has increased by a large margin, which ultimately promotes the price increase of domestic soybean and soybean oil, as well as the production price increase of breeding feed industry, driving the increase of corn and other grains Ma Mingchao, a grain and oil expert at ZZY Qingma studio, said that soybean shortage, wheat production reduction and psychological factors were important factors that led to the price rise of agricultural and sideline products such as grain and oil in the near future Take soybean oil as an example Due to the relevant regulations on genetically modified food issued by the state, the import of foreign soybeans has a one and a half month's gap period, and the reduction of these soybean imports will lead to a reduction of at least 540000 tons of soybean oil An analysis of "inflection point" of ZZY Li Yongqiang pointed out that it was proposed that there would be "inflection point" in China's total grain supply and demand at the end of 2004 or in 2005 and 2006 As a prediction of the future, it is not yet verified Because the supply situation will change in the future, such as the moderate rise in the price of agricultural products, which will lead to the increase of supply The forecast needs to be further supported by data According to lizy Li Ke, although there may be a "turning point" in the total national grain supply and demand from the central government to the local government and from government officials to enterprises, the current grain inventory is still very large, which can fully meet the demand of the quantity, "turning point" has not yet appeared; the current "virtual heat" may be a kind of blind obedience If the grain production is lower than the consumption in autumn and summer of 2004, and the inventory is further reduced, the situation of supply under demand will be clear And this period of rising food prices will certainly be subdued Zzy At the 4th China Grain marketization forum held recently, Li jingmou, a grain expert and general manager of Zhengzhou grain wholesale market, said that after China's grain output reached a historical high of 512.295 million tons in 1998, there has been a situation of periodic oversupply, and a new short shortage period may soon come, and a "turning point" may appear around 2005; in case of emergencies It may also come in advance Li Siheng, expert consultant of ZZY state grain administration, analyzes the domestic market from the changes of supply and demand in the international grain market He believes that in 2002-2003, the total output of three kinds of grains (wheat, coarse grain and rice) in the world is expected to be 2031 million tons, which is 63.3 million tons less than that in the previous year, resulting in the sixth consecutive year of decline after 1996-1997, and the biggest fluctuation in food prices in seven years According to figures released by the national development and Reform Commission on October 20, the planting area of major oil-bearing varieties in China has continued to expand this year, with an increase in output Among them, the planting area of rapeseed is 115 million mu, an increase of 7% over the previous year; the planting area of peanut is more than 77 million mu, an increase of 5% over the previous year This seems to indicate that even if the largest increase is currently in edible oil, there is a considerable possibility of price decline What is the relationship between supply and demand of the whole grain and agricultural product prices? As the experts of the macroeconomic forum of Tianze Economic Research Institute said on October 26, we should "continue to observe and strengthen research" Zzy