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Lead
Recently, there has been two pieces of good news in the hog market:
1.
In order to further do a good job in the market to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and promote the price of pigs to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, the state will recently release the seventh batch of central pork reserves this year, and urge and guide all localities to increase their efforts to release local government pork reserves to form a joint force
for regulation and control.
2.
Russia said grain transport corridors would continue to exist and the grain agreement would resume
at noon on Tuesday.
Looking at the pig market from the status of the newly built pig house
At present, there are not many new pig houses in various parts of China, and from the analysis of the project list of new pig houses, the main focus of the work is to maintain the equipment in the pig house and upgrade the equipment in the pig house
.
In addition, due to the impact of African swine fever, the risk of free-range farming is greater, resulting in the current dissipation is relatively small
.
The rise in feed prices is one of the risks currently faced by small farmers at the end of the farm, along with African swine fever,
which is currently approaching winter.
From the actual manufacturer's information, it is known that the original price of a bag of soybean meal was between 230 and 250 yuan, but now it is basically around
290 yuan.
Soybean meal has risen from 4700 yuan / ton last year to about 5700 yuan / ton today, and the price of bran has also risen a lot
.
It is reflected in the feed cost of farmers, which brings certain pressure
to the breeding costs of retail farmers.
Pig cycle rally coming to an end?
Now in the pig market, after a long period of pig price rise, I believe that many people have this question: in the future, how will the pig price go?
Experts who participated in the analysis and judgment of the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that according to historical data reference comparison, the average price of pigs in the first few "pig cycles" in 2019 is about 21 yuan per kilogram, even if the cost factor in recent years is taken into account, the current pork price has exceeded 27 yuan per kilogram, which is still at an excessively high level
.
In order to curb prices, on October 19, the state released the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, and instructed all localities to increase efforts to synchronize the release of local government pork reserves
.
Going back to October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in order to effectively do a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pig market, the state released the fifth batch of central pork reserves
this year.
Then, on November 2, in order to further do a good job in the market to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and promote the price of live pigs to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, the state will release the seventh batch of central pork reserves this year, and urge and guide all localities to increase their efforts to release local government pork reserves to form a joint force
for regulation and control.
At the same time, on October 21, the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in order to do a good job in the pig and pork market to ensure supply and price stability, the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Department recently deployed all localities to do a good job in local government pork reserve release in the coming period, and form a regulatory synergy with the national central reserve
.
The state requires all localities to increase efforts to continuously release pork reserves in multiple batches in accordance with the provisions of the pork reserve adjustment plan, and further increase the intensity of reserve release at important times such as the winter solstice, New Year's Day and next year's Spring Festival
, as well as key areas with excessive sales and secondary fattening and excessive price levels.
As far as the current pig price is concerned, although the pig price varies from place to place, the absolute price in the northeast is relatively low, and the price difference in the south has not been widened by the rise in pig prices, which reflects from the side that the recovery of breeding in the south is better
.
On the other hand, from the policy analysis, the expectation of dumping storage on pig prices will have a certain impact, especially before the holidays, but the overall volume is actually not large, coupled with the basic frozen meat, the actual impact on the pig market is not large, mainly to regulate and release signals
.
Another aspect of the current stocking policy is to promote farmers to speed up slaughtering, and then there is another reason, that is, they are worried that if farmers concentrate on slaughtering in the later stage, it will lead to a surplus of pork in the market and a sharp decline
in pig prices 。 The current pig price is in a relatively high position, which is for downstream consumers, the consumer's acceptance ability is limited, the current price is high, the price difference of fat pigs is better, the market is still in a positive price cycle, but if the farmers are still maintaining the fence, then once the situation of concentrated slaughter occurs, the price behind will be low, and the wind direction of the market will change
.
If the change of capable sows is taken as the core basis, because the sow has been in a growth trend, the price is also at a relatively high level, long-term capacity analysis, the production capacity of pigs has gradually recovered, so next year's price should be relatively weak compared to the fourth quarter of this year, in other words, the high price of pigs in the fourth quarter of this year has been basically determined, but the later stage does not rule out the possibility of a higher rise, but in general, the follow-up will move towards a steady and slow downward trend
.
In the early months, a large number of pen weight gain and secondary fattening behavior at the breeding end brought greater pressure on the market to move back, the current pig breeding is in a high-profit stage, the inventory of capable sows continues to rise, to March to July next year, the pig slaughter volume will enter a month-on-month rise stage, the remote pig price currently seems to be showing a short logic of expectations
.
Whether it is December or the current November, the expectation of pig prices is in the stage of gradual stabilization, this period of time the mentality of farmers will be more likely to gradually change from pressing the pen to selling slowly arranged out of the slaughter, there are few large pigs, no one sells the standard pigs, the pigs in hand have achieved maximum profits at the end of October, whether from the perspective of feed costs or from the supply side of pigs, the follow-up will gradually be eased, and the pig price will gradually stabilize.
Immediately after that, the remote null logic is slowly implemented
.
The impact of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" on pig prices
On October 19, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of October 10 to October 14, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, entering the excessive increase level 1 warning range determined by the "Improve the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market"
.
In order to effectively do a good job in the pig market "ensure supply and stabilize prices" policy, the state has released 6 batches of central pork reserves, and will release the 7th batch of central pork reserves this year in the near future, and at the same time guide all localities to increase efforts to synchronize the release of local government pork reserves
.
Looking back on October 20, it was reported that in response to the recent situation of the continuous high pig price, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission actively strengthened communication with some large pig breeding enterprises, and further communicated and studied how to do a good job in the pig market "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices"
.
In the context of the obvious rise in pig prices, the implementation of the policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" of pigs, data from China Pig Network shows that the price of live pigs reached 28.
46 yuan / kg on October 21, compared with 24.
07 yuan / kg on September 21, an increase of more than 18%
in one month.
From the supply and demand side analysis, the current pig market is still in a stage of supply shortage, the main reason is the soaring pig price, farmers are reluctant to sell, and some also carry out the second and third fattening operations, the recent pig price continues the trend of continuous rise after the National Day, if analyzed from the entire pig cycle, it has now entered the end of
the pig cycle.
How small retail farmers respond
Recently, the price of live pigs has once again broken through new highs, and farmers have made "a lot of money"
.
Data from China Pig Network shows that as of October 20, the price of live pigs reached 28.
59 yuan / kg, again hitting a new high, from the National Day to now, has been hovering around 24 yuan / kg for a long time, and approaching the 29 yuan / kg mark
.
What are the main reasons for the recent rise in pig prices? Recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized some industry experts to analyze and judge
the recent supply, demand and price situation of the pig market.
Experts believe that the recent significant increase in pig prices is an important reason why some farmers have irrationally over-pressed pen sales and secondary fattening behaviors in order to game the market after the game
, which has reduced market supply.
From the analysis of the supply and demand of pigs, it is still in a situation where the supply of pigs is relatively tight, and the superimposed farmers want to raise large fat pigs, and the pressure on the pen for sale has led to the current entry into a relatively high range of pig prices
.
It should be noted here that in terms of price, there is a certain price difference between the current price of fat pigs and standard pigs, which is why farmers want to raise fat pigs
.
The data shows that as of October 17, the average price difference between 150 kg of fat pigs supplied by 150 kg and 120 kg of standard pigs in the country has reached 0.
79 yuan / kg, in other words, the price of fattening pigs can be sold is higher
.
Under normal circumstances, the standard weight of pigs is about 110 kg to 125 kg, but at present, there are already some pigs in the pen whose weight has exceeded 150 kg, which is the consequence of the pen for sale, the demand for fat pigs in winter is higher, resulting in the price difference between standard pigs and fat pigs, the price of standard pigs in summer is higher than the price of fat pigs, which is the seasonal law of the price difference of pig standard fertilizer, no matter what, the price difference is about 0.
5 is normal
.
The higher standard fertilizer price difference makes farmers tend to raise pigs larger and then go out of the slaughter, and they have also entered a period of considerable profit
.
On October 20, the weekly analysis report of the pig market released by Zhuochuang Information pointed out that the profit of self-breeding and self-raising in the week and the profit of piglet fattening theory increased
month-on-month.
The average profit of self-breeding and self-support in the country was 1641.
87 yuan / head, up 119.
48 yuan / head
from the previous month.
The average profit of piglet fattening was 1566.
91 yuan/head, up 118.
22 yuan/head
from the previous month.
In addition, during the week, the breeding end was high and sold, and the total amount was volatile, but the overall proportion of large-weight pigs out of the slaughter increased, and the average weight of the national pig trade continued to rise
.
Zhuochuang Information monitored the average trading weight of pigs in the country to 125.
37 kg, an increase of 0.
31%
from the previous month.
At present, although pig farming is quite profitable, small retail farmers do not have a particularly strong willingness to expand production; At present, some large-scale aquaculture enterprises will still continue some capacity expansion plans, but small and medium-sized farmers will be relatively conservative, from the current industry trend, small retail farmers continue to increase production capacity if the risk will be relatively high
.
One of the eternal laws of the market is "change", predicting the pig price is almost impossible to achieve, another aspect of the word, the market sentiment is no one can unilaterally control, after mid-October, the price of pigs will be more dominated by emotions, how the mood of the entire market fluctuates on the impact of pig prices is relatively large, and the follow-up pig price needs to be continuously paid attention
to according to market sentiment.
;
;Lead
IntroductionRecently, there has been two pieces of good news in the hog market:
Recently, there has been two good news in the hog market:1.
In order to further do a good job in the market to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and promote the price of pigs to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, the state will recently release the seventh batch of central pork reserves this year, and urge and guide all localities to increase their efforts to release local government pork reserves to form a joint force
for regulation and control.
2.
Russia said grain transport corridors would continue to exist and the grain agreement would resume
at noon on Tuesday.
Looking at the pig market from the status of the newly built pig house
Look at the pig market from the situation of the new pig house Look at the pig market from the situation of the new pig houseAt present, there are not many new pig houses in various parts of China, and from the analysis of the project list of new pig houses, the main focus of the work is to maintain the equipment in the pig house and upgrade the equipment in the pig house
.
In addition, due to the impact of African swine fever, the risk of free-range farming is greater, resulting in the current dissipation is relatively small
.
The rise in feed prices is one of the risks currently faced by small farmers at the end of the farm, along with African swine fever,
which is currently approaching winter.
From the actual manufacturer's information, it is known that the original price of a bag of soybean meal was between 230 and 250 yuan, but now it is basically around
290 yuan.
Soybean meal has risen from 4700 yuan / ton last year to about 5700 yuan / ton today, and the price of bran has also risen a lot
.
It is reflected in the feed cost of farmers, which brings certain pressure
to the breeding costs of retail farmers.
which is currently approaching winter.
Pig cycle rally coming to an end?
Pig cycle rally coming to an end? Pig cycle rally coming to an end?Now in the pig market, after a long period of pig price rise, I believe that many people have this question: in the future, how will the pig price go?
Experts who participated in the analysis and judgment of the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that according to historical data reference comparison, the average price of pigs in the first few "pig cycles" in 2019 is about 21 yuan per kilogram, even if the cost factor in recent years is taken into account, the current pork price has exceeded 27 yuan per kilogram, which is still at an excessively high level
.
In order to curb prices, on October 19, the state released the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, and instructed all localities to increase efforts to synchronize the release of local government pork reserves
.
Going back to October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in order to effectively do a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pig market, the state released the fifth batch of central pork reserves
this year.
Then, on November 2, in order to further do a good job in the market to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and promote the price of live pigs to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, the state will release the seventh batch of central pork reserves this year, and urge and guide all localities to increase their efforts to release local government pork reserves to form a joint force
for regulation and control.
At the same time, on October 21, the National Development and Reform Commission released news that in order to do a good job in the pig and pork market to ensure supply and price stability, the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Department recently deployed all localities to do a good job in local government pork reserve release in the coming period, and form a regulatory synergy with the national central reserve
.
The state requires all localities to increase efforts to continuously release pork reserves in multiple batches in accordance with the provisions of the pork reserve adjustment plan, and further increase the intensity of reserve release at important times such as the winter solstice, New Year's Day and next year's Spring Festival
, as well as key areas with excessive sales and secondary fattening and excessive price levels.
As far as the current pig price is concerned, although the pig price varies from place to place, the absolute price in the northeast is relatively low, and the price difference in the south has not been widened by the rise in pig prices, which reflects from the side that the recovery of breeding in the south is better
.
On the other hand, from the policy analysis, the expectation of dumping storage on pig prices will have a certain impact, especially before the holidays, but the overall volume is actually not large, coupled with the basic frozen meat, the actual impact on the pig market is not large, mainly to regulate and release signals
.
Another aspect of the current stocking policy is to promote farmers to speed up slaughtering, and then there is another reason, that is, they are worried that if farmers concentrate on slaughtering in the later stage, it will lead to a surplus of pork in the market and a sharp decline
in pig prices 。 The current pig price is in a relatively high position, which is for downstream consumers, the consumer's acceptance ability is limited, the current price is high, the price difference of fat pigs is better, the market is still in a positive price cycle, but if the farmers are still maintaining the fence, then once the situation of concentrated slaughter occurs, the price behind will be low, and the wind direction of the market will change
.
If the change of capable sows is taken as the core basis, because the sow has been in a growth trend, the price is also at a relatively high level, long-term capacity analysis, the production capacity of pigs has gradually recovered, so next year's price should be relatively weak compared to the fourth quarter of this year, in other words, the high price of pigs in the fourth quarter of this year has been basically determined, but the later stage does not rule out the possibility of a higher rise, but in general, the follow-up will move towards a steady and slow downward trend
.
In the early months, a large number of pen weight gain and secondary fattening behavior at the breeding end brought greater pressure on the market to move back, the current pig breeding is in a high-profit stage, the inventory of capable sows continues to rise, to March to July next year, the pig slaughter volume will enter a month-on-month rise stage, the remote pig price currently seems to be showing a short logic of expectations
.
Whether it is December or the current November, the expectation of pig prices is in the stage of gradual stabilization, this period of time the mentality of farmers will be more likely to gradually change from pressing the pen to selling slowly arranged out of the slaughter, there are few large pigs, no one sells the standard pigs, the pigs in hand have achieved maximum profits at the end of October, whether from the perspective of feed costs or from the supply side of pigs, the follow-up will gradually be eased, and the pig price will gradually stabilize.
Immediately after that, the remote null logic is slowly implemented
.
The impact of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" on pig prices
The impact of "ensuring supply and stable price" on pig prices"The impact of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" on pig pricesOn October 19, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of October 10 to October 14, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, entering the excessive increase level 1 warning range determined by the "Improve the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market"
.
In order to effectively do a good job in the pig market "ensure supply and stabilize prices" policy, the state has released 6 batches of central pork reserves, and will release the 7th batch of central pork reserves this year in the near future, and at the same time guide all localities to increase efforts to synchronize the release of local government pork reserves
.
Looking back on October 20, it was reported that in response to the recent situation of the continuous high pig price, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission actively strengthened communication with some large pig breeding enterprises, and further communicated and studied how to do a good job in the pig market "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices"
.
In the context of the obvious rise in pig prices, the implementation of the policy of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" of pigs, data from China Pig Network shows that the price of live pigs reached 28.
46 yuan / kg on October 21, compared with 24.
07 yuan / kg on September 21, an increase of more than 18%
in one month.
From the supply and demand side analysis, the current pig market is still in a stage of supply shortage, the main reason is the soaring pig price, farmers are reluctant to sell, and some also carry out the second and third fattening operations, the recent pig price continues the trend of continuous rise after the National Day, if analyzed from the entire pig cycle, it has now entered the end of
the pig cycle.
How small retail farmers respond
How small retail farmers deal with how small farmers respondRecently, the price of live pigs has once again broken through new highs, and farmers have made "a lot of money"
.
Data from China Pig Network shows that as of October 20, the price of live pigs reached 28.
59 yuan / kg, again hitting a new high, from the National Day to now, has been hovering around 24 yuan / kg for a long time, and approaching the 29 yuan / kg mark
.
What are the main reasons for the recent rise in pig prices? Recently, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized some industry experts to analyze and judge
the recent supply, demand and price situation of the pig market.
Experts believe that the recent significant increase in pig prices is an important reason why some farmers have irrationally over-pressed pen sales and secondary fattening behaviors in order to game the market after the game
, which has reduced market supply.
From the analysis of the supply and demand of pigs, it is still in a situation where the supply of pigs is relatively tight, and the superimposed farmers want to raise large fat pigs, and the pressure on the pen for sale has led to the current entry into a relatively high range of pig prices
.
It should be noted here that in terms of price, there is a certain price difference between the current price of fat pigs and standard pigs, which is why farmers want to raise fat pigs
.
The data shows that as of October 17, the average price difference between 150 kg of fat pigs supplied by 150 kg and 120 kg of standard pigs in the country has reached 0.
79 yuan / kg, in other words, the price of fattening pigs can be sold is higher
.
Under normal circumstances, the standard weight of pigs is about 110 kg to 125 kg, but at present, there are already some pigs in the pen whose weight has exceeded 150 kg, which is the consequence of the pen for sale, the demand for fat pigs in winter is higher, resulting in the price difference between standard pigs and fat pigs, the price of standard pigs in summer is higher than the price of fat pigs, which is the seasonal law of the price difference of pig standard fertilizer, no matter what, the price difference is about 0.
5 is normal
.
The higher standard fertilizer price difference makes farmers tend to raise pigs larger and then go out of the slaughter, and they have also entered a period of considerable profit
.
On October 20, the weekly analysis report of the pig market released by Zhuochuang Information pointed out that the profit of self-breeding and self-raising in the week and the profit of piglet fattening theory increased
month-on-month.
The average profit of self-breeding and self-support in the country was 1641.
87 yuan / head, up 119.
48 yuan / head
from the previous month.
The average profit of piglet fattening was 1566.
91 yuan/head, up 118.
22 yuan/head
from the previous month.
In addition, during the week, the breeding end was high and sold, and the total amount was volatile, but the overall proportion of large-weight pigs out of the slaughter increased, and the average weight of the national pig trade continued to rise
.
Zhuochuang Information monitored the average trading weight of pigs in the country to 125.
37 kg, an increase of 0.
31%
from the previous month.
At present, although pig farming is quite profitable, small retail farmers do not have a particularly strong willingness to expand production; At present, some large-scale aquaculture enterprises will still continue some capacity expansion plans, but small and medium-sized farmers will be relatively conservative, from the current industry trend, small retail farmers continue to increase production capacity if the risk will be relatively high
.
.
One of the eternal laws of the market is "change", predicting the pig price is almost impossible to achieve, another aspect of the word, the market sentiment is no one can unilaterally control, after mid-October, the price of pigs will be more dominated by emotions, how the mood of the entire market fluctuates on the impact of pig prices is relatively large, and the follow-up pig price needs to be continuously paid attention
to according to market sentiment.
