Go on sale for 5 years! Market trend forecast of PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody in 2019

Five years since its launch, Pd - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody has become the most successful innovative drug, which has refreshed the clinical treatment schemes of non-small cell lung cancer, three negative breast cancer, bladder cancer and other tumor types, and also opened a new era of tumor immunotherapy At the same time, Pd - (L) 1 mAb has become the most successful commercial drug, and the products on the market are the most eye-catching products in the financial statements of various enterprises Among them, keytruda will become a legend In 2019, its global sales will exceed 10 billion US dollars In the future, keytruda will replace Sumeria (adamumumab) to become the next generation of drug king In addition, with Roche's tecentriq successively cutting off the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, Sanyin breast cancer and small cell lung cancer, tecentriq combined chemotherapy will also be approved as the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, and tecentriq's market performance will enter a high-speed growth period! In this paper, we will summarize the market data of PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody and focus on the key progress of keytruda, opdivo, tecentriq and other drugs in the first half of 2019 The market sales of PD - (L) 1 McAb in 2019 is predicted to start in 2014, and the market sales of opdivo, keytruda and other PD - (L) 1 McAbs will come on the stage, from less than $100 million to explosive growth The author predicts that in 2019, the market sales of PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody will exceed 20 billion US dollars, of which keytruda accounts for half In general: 1 Keytruda has established an unbreakable market advantage With the absolute advantage of lung cancer, the market sales will continue to maintain a strong growth In 2019, the sales will smoothly break through 10 billion US dollars, and at the same time, it may surpass Revlimid (lenalidomide) to become a super heavyweight product next to Sumeria; 2 Although the indications of opdivo cover a wide range, the market growth of opdivo has slowed down and basically stagnated after the rapid growth of 2015q2-2018q3 due to the failure or irregularity of several key clinical trials (such as cm-026, cm-227) The author predicts that the sales volume of opdivo in 2019 is expected to be $7.3 billion, up + 8% year-on-year; 3 Tecentriq's sales volume growth started to rise since 2019q1, driven by the approval of first-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer, three negative breast cancer and extensive small cell lung cancer In August and September 2019, tecentriq combined chemotherapy will be approved by EMA and FDA successively The approval of the indication will inject strong impetus to tecentriq's long-term growth Q4 sales in 2019 is expected to be more positive I predict that the annual sales of tecentriq in 2019 will exceed 2 billion US dollars, and it may be among the top 50 global sales; 4 Imfinzi's market growth is slowing down, and the market growth space brought by phase III NSCLC adjuvant therapy is shrinking However, it should be noted that imfinzi failed in phase IV NSCLC critical clinical trials, and Caspian published positive results in phase III clinical trials of extensive small cell lung cancer Since 2019, imfinzi's market sales will lag several positions behind tecentriq's imfinzi's 2019 sales Sales are expected to be around $1.4 billion As mentioned above, key progress of PD - (L) 1 mAbs, such as keytruda and opdivo, has become a very successful class of commercial drugs In 2019, there are also several very noteworthy registration review and clinical development progress in this field Keytruda: with the success of lung cancer indications, keytruda will be the next generation of drug king Table 1 keytruda has won a great victory in lung cancer Keytruda has gradually established a breakthrough advantage in the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer In 2019, keytruda has harvested six indications successively On April 11, 2019, keytruda single drug was approved for PD-L1 positive ((TPS) ≥ 1%), EGFR - / ALK - single drug first-line drug for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer So far, keytruda has won a great victory in non-small cell lung cancer indications! Table 2 keytruda's approved indications in the first half of 2019 in addition to the above progress of registration review, keytruda's clinical development in the first half of 2019 also has several noteworthy progress: 1 On July 29, 2019, keynote-522 clinical trial published preliminary data, keytruda combined chemotherapy vs chemotherapy can bring clinical benefits to patients with Sanyin breast cancer, reaching the main clinical end point; 2 On May 31, 2019, keynote-048 clinical trial was successful, keytruda first-line treatment of recurrent and metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck can significantly improve the overall survival of patients; 3 On May 20, 2019, keynote-119 failed; 4 On April 25, 2019, keynote-062, first-line gastric cancer failed; 5 On February 19, 2019, keynote-240, second-line treatment of liver cancer failed; 6 On January 14, 2019, keynote-181 clinical data was updated and partially succeeded Opdivo: it has a wide range of indications In 2019, the innovative cancer treatment plan, the sales volume of opdivo will be close to US $billion Although it has been overtaken by keytruda, opdivo is still a highly successful commercial monoclonal antibody with a wide range of indications, which has brought breakthroughs to multiple tumor treatment In 2019, opdivo did not go well in general: 1 On August 1, 2019, opdivo combined with bempegaldesleukin (nktr-214) first-line treatment of melanoma was recognized as a breakthrough therapy by FDA; 2 On July 24, 2019, checkmate-227 updated data, part 1a succeeded, Part 2 Failure, on the whole, checkmate-227 is a failure, and the current data can not support the first-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer harvest by opdivo; 3 On June 24, 2019, the clinical progress of checkmate-459 clinical trial of Bristol Myers Squibb, opdivo vs sorafenib did not bring significant total survival benefit to patients with HCC, HR = 0.85; P = 0.0752 Tecentriq: rising superstar in 2019, tecentriq has received two first-line therapies, namely, three negative breast cancer and extensive small cell lung cancer At the same time, it is worth noting that tecentriq will gain a very important first-line non-small cell lung cancer indication in 2019 On July 26, 2019, tecentriq combined chemotherapy has been actively recommended by CHMP, and EMA is expected to approve the indication on September 2, 2019 Table 3 tecentriq's noteworthy indications in 2019 imfinzi: the expansion of indications of Pacific storm in 2019, there are three important developments of AstraZeneca's imfinzi (durvalumab): 1 On July 22, 2019, imfinzi updated the prescription manual information, and FDA approved to update the total survival data of Pacific (nct02125461) into prescribing Information; 2 On June 27, 2019, AstraZeneca announced the positive results of Caspian, a three-stage clinical trial of first-line therapy for extensive small cell lung cancer Imfinzi combined with etoposide and platinum chemotherapy can bring significant total survival clinical benefits to patients; 3 On June 2, 2019, AstraZeneca announced imfinzi The three-year total survival data of the three-phase clinical trial Pacifics confirmed that imfinzi can bring long-term clinical benefits to patients Imfinzi vs standard therapy, the three-year overall survival rate was 57% vs 43.5%; the median total survival time was less than 29.1 months; the risk of death was reduced by 31% According to the latest development progress of PD - (L) 1 monoclonal antibody in 2019, keytruda and tecentriq will maintain a steady and positive growth in sales of the two drugs in the next few years by virtue of their smooth expansion in lung cancer indications In the next 3-5 years, keytruda will successively surpass lenalidomide and adamumumab to become the new generation of drug king; tecentriq will be among the top 50 in global sales, and ocrev Us, alecensa and perjeta together become Roche's dazzling new generation products!