Global wheat situation and Outlook Report

Introduction: according to Fas, the global wheat trade in 2002 / 03 is expected to be 103.9 million tons, 3.6 million tons lower than that in 2001 / 02 Global wheat production is expected to increase by 1.1 million tons and consumption by 6.7 million tons Global wheat stocks are expected to fall 13.6 million tons, the lowest since 1997 / 98 At the beginning of June, the FOB export price of No 2 hard red winter wheat in Meiwan was US $143 per ton, an increase of US $13 over the previous month The global wheat production is 9.1 million tons lower than last month's forecast, while that of Argentina, the United States, China, India, Canada, Eastern Europe and Ukraine is lower The increase of EU production is relatively small compared with that of the above countries Global wheat consumption is expected to decrease by 2.1 million tons, and ending inventory is 9 million tons lower than last month's forecast The global wheat trade volume is expected to decrease by 1.4 million tons in 2002 / 02, mainly due to the reduction of wheat imports from China and the European Union Argentina's and Canada's exports fell, while the EU's and Kazakstan's increased, but only partially offset the decline On the Argentine side, the current economic crisis has led to uncertain prospects, so farmers are hoarding goods and selling them, causing domestic wheat prices to soar As a result, in the past, Brazil imported 96% of the total wheat imports from Argentina, but now, before Argentina's new wheat market in December, Brazil needs supplies from other countries As a result, this presents opportunities for the United States, Canada and many non-traditional wheat suppliers In fact, the United States sold only 300000 tons of wheat to Brazil, and Poland reportedly sold smaller quantities of wheat to Brazil USDA's adjustment of global wheat trade in 2002 / 2003 is as follows: selected exporting countries: USDA will reduce Argentina's wheat export volume by 2.5 million tons to 9 million tons this month, due to the reduction of planting area leading to the reduction of production expectation Canadian wheat exports were cut by 500000 tons to 15 million tons due to lower production expectations EU wheat exports increased by 1 million tons to 13.5 million tons due to lower export competition expectations Kazakstan's wheat exports increased by 500000 tons to 4.5 million tons as Argentina's competition in the Iranian market is expected to decline due to improved infrastructure Selected importing country: China's wheat import is expected to be reduced by 1 million tons to 2 million tons, because of high global prices and low domestic prices, which shows that the domestic supply is sufficient Egypt's wheat imports increased by 500000 tons to 6 million tons because of the huge supply of cheap wheat from the Black Sea EU wheat imports were cut by 500000 tons to 3.5 million because of record production within the EU and rising global prices Morocco's wheat imports were reduced by 200000 tons to 2.8 million tons as production is expected to increase The U.S Department of agriculture adjusted the global wheat trade in 2001 / 2002, specifically: the selected export country: Australia's wheat export decreased by 1 million tons to 16.5 million tons, based on the slow progress of export shipment in the late market year Kazakstan's wheat exports increased by 500000 tons to 4 million tons due to an increase in shipments to Iran, which is expected to exceed 1 million tons, which is more than the optimistic forecast made by many Kazakstan officials at the beginning of the year Russia's wheat exports increased by 500000 tons to 3.5 million tons because of the rapid progress in recent months In May, shipments hit a new high this year, with Egypt and the European Union as major destinations Selected importing country: China's wheat import was reduced by 200000 tons to 1.3 million tons due to the slow pace of import Egypt's wheat imports increased by 700000 tons, based on purchases from non-traditional suppliers late in the year (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: