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Markets continue to closely monitor the progress of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as a ceasefire or some sort of agreement could help ease concerns about prolonged disruptions to grain exports
from the Black Sea region .
On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) May soft red winter wheat futures settled at about 1,063.
75 cents per bush, down 42.
75 cents, or 3.
86%, from a week ago
.
May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around 1,070.
5 cents a bush, down 18.
75 cents, or 1.
72%, from a week ago
.
May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around 1,060.
25 cents a bushel, down 10 cents, or 0.
93%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's May 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €361.
75/tonne, down €9 or 2.
4% from a week earlier
.
Argentine wheat spot offers were at $401/ton, down $20 or 4.
8% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 98.
23 on Friday, down 0.
9% from a week earlier
.
75 cents per bush, down 42.
75 cents, or 3.
86%, from a week ago
.
May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around 1,070.
5 cents a bush, down 18.
75 cents, or 1.
72%, from a week ago
.
May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around 1,060.
25 cents a bushel, down 10 cents, or 0.
93%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's May 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €361.
75/tonne, down €9 or 2.
4% from a week earlier
.
Argentine wheat spot offers were at $401/ton, down $20 or 4.
8% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 98.
23 on Friday, down 0.
9% from a week earlier
.
Analysts cut combined Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports by 11 million tonnes
In a monthly report published on Thursday, France's Strategic Grains lowered its 2021/22 wheat export target for Ukraine by nearly 6 million tonnes and cut Russian exports by 5 million tonnes
.
About 11 million tonnes of wheat will disappear from the world market in 2021/22 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which means major exporters such as Australia, the US, India and Europe need to step up their exports to make up for the Black Sea supply gap, the report said
.
The company raised its 2021/22 EU soft wheat export forecast by 2 million tonnes to partially replace Black Sea supplies
.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24, Ukraine has been shutting down commercial operations at Black Sea ports, and sanctions against Russia by the United States and other countries have also disrupted Russian wheat exports
.
.
About 11 million tonnes of wheat will disappear from the world market in 2021/22 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which means major exporters such as Australia, the US, India and Europe need to step up their exports to make up for the Black Sea supply gap, the report said
.
The company raised its 2021/22 EU soft wheat export forecast by 2 million tonnes to partially replace Black Sea supplies
.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24, Ukraine has been shutting down commercial operations at Black Sea ports, and sanctions against Russia by the United States and other countries have also disrupted Russian wheat exports
.
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday also lowered its 2021/22 Ukrainian grain export forecast as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues
.
The IGC lowered Ukraine's grain exports to 47.
8 million tonnes, down 15 million from last month's forecast of 62.
8 million
.
The IGC said this is only a preliminary forecast and there is a lot of uncertainty
.
The current threat is mainly export disruption
.
Ukrainian Black Sea ports remain suspended for now
.
Although Ukraine has tried to increase exports by rail along the country's western border, overall volumes are likely to be limited
.
.
The IGC lowered Ukraine's grain exports to 47.
8 million tonnes, down 15 million from last month's forecast of 62.
8 million
.
The IGC said this is only a preliminary forecast and there is a lot of uncertainty
.
The current threat is mainly export disruption
.
Ukrainian Black Sea ports remain suspended for now
.
Although Ukraine has tried to increase exports by rail along the country's western border, overall volumes are likely to be limited
.
Black Sea wheat production and exports to continue sharply reduced in 2022/23
Strategic Grains also lowered its 2022/23 Ukrainian grain production forecast by 40% due to disruptions to planting
.
Ukraine's wheat production forecast for 2022/23 is lowered by 13 million tons
.
The company lowered its 2022/23 wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine by a combined 17 million tonnes, as exports for the next season will only slowly restart
.
.
Ukraine's wheat production forecast for 2022/23 is lowered by 13 million tons
.
The company lowered its 2022/23 wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine by a combined 17 million tonnes, as exports for the next season will only slowly restart
.
Moscow-based consultancy SovEcon also expects a reduction in Ukraine's 2022 cereal area
.
If most farmers can go to the fields in April and Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement in the next few weeks, the total sown area of wheat in Ukraine this year may be 6.
9 million hectares, a decrease of 200,000 hectares year-on-year
.
Wheat yields will be well below trend line at 3.
8 t/ha
.
Wheat production is forecast at 26 million tonnes, down from an earlier forecast of 28.
3 million tonnes and well below the previous year's 32.
1 million tonnes
.
.
If most farmers can go to the fields in April and Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement in the next few weeks, the total sown area of wheat in Ukraine this year may be 6.
9 million hectares, a decrease of 200,000 hectares year-on-year
.
Wheat yields will be well below trend line at 3.
8 t/ha
.
Wheat production is forecast at 26 million tonnes, down from an earlier forecast of 28.
3 million tonnes and well below the previous year's 32.
1 million tonnes
.
Russia still exports grain
Earlier in the week, media reported that Russia could ban grain exports for the rest of the year, but then Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko announced that Russia would allow companies with export licenses and quotas to export grain, meaning policy There are no substantial changes
.
Russian grain exports have been restricted to some extent since the introduction of export duties in February 2021
.
In December last year, the Russian government introduced a quota policy, limiting the export quota of wheat from February 15 to June 30 this year to 8 million tons, and the quota of other grains to 3 million tons
.
As of March 10, Russia had exported 23 million tonnes of wheat in the 2021/22 season (July to June)
.
The USDA estimated in its monthly supply and demand report last week that Russia will export 32 million tonnes of wheat this season
.
Russian ports are still operating, but buyers are worried about payment difficulties as countries such as the United States and Europe impose economic sanctions on Russia and cut off most Russian banks from the SWIFT global banking payment system
.
Many traders said they did not receive new business from Russia given the high shipping costs and difficulties arranging payments
.
.
Russian grain exports have been restricted to some extent since the introduction of export duties in February 2021
.
In December last year, the Russian government introduced a quota policy, limiting the export quota of wheat from February 15 to June 30 this year to 8 million tons, and the quota of other grains to 3 million tons
.
As of March 10, Russia had exported 23 million tonnes of wheat in the 2021/22 season (July to June)
.
The USDA estimated in its monthly supply and demand report last week that Russia will export 32 million tonnes of wheat this season
.
Russian ports are still operating, but buyers are worried about payment difficulties as countries such as the United States and Europe impose economic sanctions on Russia and cut off most Russian banks from the SWIFT global banking payment system
.
Many traders said they did not receive new business from Russia given the high shipping costs and difficulties arranging payments
.
Dimitri Rilke, head of consultancy IKAR, predicted that despite various restrictions, Russia could export as much as 1.
5 million tonnes of grain in March, referring to exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union
.
After August 31, 2022, Russia may resume exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, Rilke said
.
5 million tonnes of grain in March, referring to exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union
.
After August 31, 2022, Russia may resume exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, Rilke said
.
There are signs that some Russian wheat exports are continuing, European traders said on Thursday
.
The Turkish State Grain Office (TMO) bought 270,000 tonnes of milling wheat on Thursday, with traders expecting Russian wheat to account for a portion of that
.
.
The Turkish State Grain Office (TMO) bought 270,000 tonnes of milling wheat on Thursday, with traders expecting Russian wheat to account for a portion of that
.
India accelerates wheat exports, may export 10 million tons
With the recent increase in international wheat prices, the Indian government is also actively promoting exports in order to increase India's wheat exports to 10 million tons
.
These include testing the quality of exported wheat by government-approved laboratories, providing additional railroad wagons, and working with ports to prioritize wheat exports
.
The new wheat harvest in India will start at the end of this month
.
Previously, logistics bottlenecks and high quality and low prices have prevented India from exporting a large amount of wheat
.
.
These include testing the quality of exported wheat by government-approved laboratories, providing additional railroad wagons, and working with ports to prioritize wheat exports
.
The new wheat harvest in India will start at the end of this month
.
Previously, logistics bottlenecks and high quality and low prices have prevented India from exporting a large amount of wheat
.
German wheat output expected to rise by nearly 6%
Germany's Leiffeisen Association (DRV) released its first harvest forecast report on Thursday, predicting that German wheat production in 2022 will increase by 5.
8% year-on-year to 22.
61 million tons, which means that stocks depleted by exports will be replenished
.
Germany is the EU's second-largest wheat producer after France
.
8% year-on-year to 22.
61 million tons, which means that stocks depleted by exports will be replenished
.
Germany is the EU's second-largest wheat producer after France
.
Drought remains severe in the southern plains of the United States
An increasingly severe drought in the southern plains of the United States is threatening the local winter wheat crop
.
More than half of Kansas, the top winter wheat-producing state, was in severe drought or worse as of March 8, the worst drought since 2018
.
Three-quarters of Oklahoma and more than two-thirds of Texas were also in severe drought
.
As of March 13, the good-to-good rate of winter wheat in Kansas was only 23%, a year-on-year decrease of 15 percentage points, and it was also the lowest good-to-good rate for the same period in four years; the state's wheat poor-to-bad rate was 38%, an increase of 16% year-on-year
.
Weather forecasts from the U.
S.
Climate Prediction Center point to continued drought in much of the Great Plains between now and June
.
.
More than half of Kansas, the top winter wheat-producing state, was in severe drought or worse as of March 8, the worst drought since 2018
.
Three-quarters of Oklahoma and more than two-thirds of Texas were also in severe drought
.
As of March 13, the good-to-good rate of winter wheat in Kansas was only 23%, a year-on-year decrease of 15 percentage points, and it was also the lowest good-to-good rate for the same period in four years; the state's wheat poor-to-bad rate was 38%, an increase of 16% year-on-year
.
Weather forecasts from the U.
S.
Climate Prediction Center point to continued drought in much of the Great Plains between now and June
.
Spring flood risk in northern U.
S.
, wheat planting may be delayed
S.
, wheat planting may be delayed
Major flood risks in the fertile Red River Valley, along with persistent snow in Minnesota and North Dakota, threaten to delay wheat plantings across the region for weeks, U.
S.
government meteorologists said
.
Seasonal forecasts issued by U.
S.
government meteorologists show that heavy snow and saturated soil moisture means the northern Red River could experience its worst flooding this spring
.
In short, wheat planting will be delayed, said Brad Lippi, a USDA meteorologist and author of the U.
S.
Drought Monitor
.
Going into April, wheat planting may be delayed by several weeks
.
The Red River Valley is considered one of the most fertile areas in the world, but flooding is threatening to delay spring planting
.
S.
government meteorologists said
.
Seasonal forecasts issued by U.
S.
government meteorologists show that heavy snow and saturated soil moisture means the northern Red River could experience its worst flooding this spring
.
In short, wheat planting will be delayed, said Brad Lippi, a USDA meteorologist and author of the U.
S.
Drought Monitor
.
Going into April, wheat planting may be delayed by several weeks
.
The Red River Valley is considered one of the most fertile areas in the world, but flooding is threatening to delay spring planting
.
