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The progress of the ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine at the beginning of the week eased the market's concerns about the long-term interruption of wheat exports from the Black Sea , but then the market's expectations for the ceasefire negotiations cooled down; the strong pace of Russian wheat exports in March also made wheat prices take back some risk premiums; the United States Wheat export sales remained weak and improved conditions for the winter wheat crop also weighed on wheat prices
.
However , the U.
S.
planting intention report shows that U.
S.
farmers have no intention to expand the planting area of spring wheat, and the geopolitical uncertainty is still high, which means that the wheat market may still fluctuate sharply after the recent sharp correction
.
May soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $9.
845 a bushel on Friday, down 117.
75 cents, or 11%, from a week ago
.
May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $10.
13 a bushel, down 97.
75 cents, or 8.
8%, from a week ago
.
May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $10.
6525 a bushel, down 39 cents, or 3.
5%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's May 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €365.
25/tonne, down €16 or 4.
2% from a week earlier
.
Spot Argentine wheat was quoted at $396/ton, down $5 or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 98.
57, down 0.
2% from a week earlier
.
845 a bushel on Friday, down 117.
75 cents, or 11%, from a week ago
.
May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $10.
13 a bushel, down 97.
75 cents, or 8.
8%, from a week ago
.
May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $10.
6525 a bushel, down 39 cents, or 3.
5%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's May 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €365.
25/tonne, down €16 or 4.
2% from a week earlier
.
Spot Argentine wheat was quoted at $396/ton, down $5 or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 98.
57, down 0.
2% from a week earlier
.
Wheat prices plummet as Russia-Ukraine talks progress
Major commodity prices fell sharply on the back of progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine at the start of the week
.
Russia and Ukraine held their fifth round of talks in Turkey on Tuesday, the first face-to-face talks in more than two weeks
.
After the meeting, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian army would significantly reduce its military activities in the Ukrainian capital Kiev and around Chernihiv.
Ukraine announced on Friday that it had successfully regained lost ground around Kiev
.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains the main driver for commodities such as wheat in the near term
.
Therefore, with the progress of the talks between the two countries, the news will continue to cause sharp fluctuations in wheat futures prices
.
.
Russia and Ukraine held their fifth round of talks in Turkey on Tuesday, the first face-to-face talks in more than two weeks
.
After the meeting, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian army would significantly reduce its military activities in the Ukrainian capital Kiev and around Chernihiv.
Ukraine announced on Friday that it had successfully regained lost ground around Kiev
.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains the main driver for commodities such as wheat in the near term
.
Therefore, with the progress of the talks between the two countries, the news will continue to cause sharp fluctuations in wheat futures prices
.
Ukraine's spring planting advances, exports are slow
Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry said on Friday that spring planting was underway in 21 areas under Ukraine's control, with a total of 603,000 hectares planted as of April 1
.
The ministry sharply raised its 2022 spring crop acreage forecast on Saturday, predicting that about 13.
4 million hectares of spring crops could be planted this year, 3.
5 million hectares less than in 2021
.
By comparison, former Agriculture Minister Roman Rashchenko earlier this month estimated plantings at just 7 million hectares
.
Despite the upward revision in planted area, it is currently difficult to concretely forecast Ukraine's 2022 cereal production outlook, given fuel and cost shortages, difficulties in carrying out field work and supplying inputs
.
.
The ministry sharply raised its 2022 spring crop acreage forecast on Saturday, predicting that about 13.
4 million hectares of spring crops could be planted this year, 3.
5 million hectares less than in 2021
.
By comparison, former Agriculture Minister Roman Rashchenko earlier this month estimated plantings at just 7 million hectares
.
Despite the upward revision in planted area, it is currently difficult to concretely forecast Ukraine's 2022 cereal production outlook, given fuel and cost shortages, difficulties in carrying out field work and supplying inputs
.
At present, Ukraine's Black Sea ports are still closed.
Although merchants are trying to export grains to Europe by rail, due to insufficient transportation capacity, a large number of grain wagons are backlogged, and the export volume is limited, which makes Ukraine's grain exports in March only a quarter of that in February
.
Ukraine had 13 million tonnes of corn and 3.
8 million tonnes of wheat in stockpiles at the end of March, Deputy Agriculture Minister Vysotsky said on Thursday
.
Although merchants are trying to export grains to Europe by rail, due to insufficient transportation capacity, a large number of grain wagons are backlogged, and the export volume is limited, which makes Ukraine's grain exports in March only a quarter of that in February
.
Ukraine had 13 million tonnes of corn and 3.
8 million tonnes of wheat in stockpiles at the end of March, Deputy Agriculture Minister Vysotsky said on Thursday
.
Russian wheat exports progressing well, export target raised
Consultancy SovEcon on Friday raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2021/22 by 400,000 tonnes to 33.
9 million tonnes, citing high global wheat prices, a weaker ruble and the rapid pace of Russian wheat exports in the second half of March
.
Some wheat demand had to be shifted from Ukraine to Russia, the report said
.
9 million tonnes, citing high global wheat prices, a weaker ruble and the rapid pace of Russian wheat exports in the second half of March
.
Some wheat demand had to be shifted from Ukraine to Russia, the report said
.
Russia may only export food and agricultural products to friendly countries amid Western sanctions against Russia, a senior Russian government official said on Friday
.
Exports of agricultural products to friendly countries will be carried out in rubles and the currency of the importing country in an agreed ratio
.
Specific to each export contract, the payment currency can already be changed according to the needs of buyers and sellers
.
Earlier, Russia asked "unfriendly" countries to pay for Russian gas in rubles from April 1
.
.
Exports of agricultural products to friendly countries will be carried out in rubles and the currency of the importing country in an agreed ratio
.
Specific to each export contract, the payment currency can already be changed according to the needs of buyers and sellers
.
Earlier, Russia asked "unfriendly" countries to pay for Russian gas in rubles from April 1
.
U.
S.
spring wheat acreage expected to fall 2%
S.
spring wheat acreage expected to fall 2%
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's Planting Intentions report released Thursday said the U.
S.
is expected to plant 47.
4 million acres of all wheat this year, up 1 percent from a year earlier, but still the fifth-lowest U.
S.
wheat acreage since records began in 1919
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's Planting Intentions report released Thursday said the U.
S.
is expected to plant 47.
4 million acres of all wheat this year, up 1 percent from a year earlier, but still the fifth-lowest U.
S.
wheat acreage since records began in 1919
.
Although the global wheat price is currently high and many importing countries are waiting to feed, American farmers have no intention to increase the sown area of spring wheat, but reduced the sown area by 2% from the previous year to 11.
2 million acres, which will also be the fourth consecutive year that the sown area of spring wheat has decreased
.
2 million acres, which will also be the fourth consecutive year that the sown area of spring wheat has decreased
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's quarterly inventory report showed that as of March 1, all U.
S.
wheat inventories stood at 1.
02 billion bushels, down 22 percent from a year earlier, below analysts' expectations and the lowest since 2008
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's quarterly inventory report showed that as of March 1, all U.
S.
wheat inventories stood at 1.
02 billion bushels, down 22 percent from a year earlier, below analysts' expectations and the lowest since 2008
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's crop rating data showed that as of March 27, Kansas, the top winter wheat growing region in the United States, had a 32 percent good-to-good rate, up from 25 percent a week earlier
.
The state has a short-to-very short-to-very-short ratio of surface moisture, and a short-to-non-short ratio of bottom moisture of 61%
.
Texas, the second-largest winter wheat producing region, had a good-to-good rate of 7 percent, up from 6 percent a week earlier
.
No wheat has an excellent rating for the past two weeks
.
Oklahoma's winter wheat was 18 percent good to good, down from 21 percent a week ago
.
In the Midwest soft red winter wheat region, 59 percent of Illinois' winter wheat was good-to-good, unchanged from the end of February
.
In North Carolina, 80 percent of soft red winter wheat was good to good, up from 74 percent in late February
.
Despite last week's improved ratings in some winter wheat-producing regions, chronic moisture deficits in the U.
S.
southern plains have prompted some analysts to think 2022 U.
S.
wheat production may only be 1.
81 billion bushels, with ending stocks likely to fall to 425 million bushels
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's crop rating data showed that as of March 27, Kansas, the top winter wheat growing region in the United States, had a 32 percent good-to-good rate, up from 25 percent a week earlier
.
The state has a short-to-very short-to-very-short ratio of surface moisture, and a short-to-non-short ratio of bottom moisture of 61%
.
Texas, the second-largest winter wheat producing region, had a good-to-good rate of 7 percent, up from 6 percent a week earlier
.
No wheat has an excellent rating for the past two weeks
.
Oklahoma's winter wheat was 18 percent good to good, down from 21 percent a week ago
.
In the Midwest soft red winter wheat region, 59 percent of Illinois' winter wheat was good-to-good, unchanged from the end of February
.
In North Carolina, 80 percent of soft red winter wheat was good to good, up from 74 percent in late February
.
Despite last week's improved ratings in some winter wheat-producing regions, chronic moisture deficits in the U.
S.
southern plains have prompted some analysts to think 2022 U.
S.
wheat production may only be 1.
81 billion bushels, with ending stocks likely to fall to 425 million bushels
.
Unless there is a bumper wheat crop in the U.
S.
and Europe, global wheat markets will remain tight, possibly well into next year, said Joe Glauber, an analyst at the IFPRI think tank
.
Current world wheat stocks (excluding China) are equivalent to two and a half months' supply, the smallest in 14 years
.
S.
and Europe, global wheat markets will remain tight, possibly well into next year, said Joe Glauber, an analyst at the IFPRI think tank
.
Current world wheat stocks (excluding China) are equivalent to two and a half months' supply, the smallest in 14 years
.
U.
S.
wheat exports slow, Australia and South America pick up
S.
wheat exports slow, Australia and South America pick up
Export sales remain slow as U.
S.
wheat prices remain high
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for 2021/22 were just 95,000 tonnes in the week ended March 24, down 39% from the previous week and 58% below the four-week average
.
So far in 2021/22, U.
S.
wheat export sales have totaled 18.
99 million tonnes, down 24.
4% from a year earlier
.
S.
wheat prices remain high
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for 2021/22 were just 95,000 tonnes in the week ended March 24, down 39% from the previous week and 58% below the four-week average
.
So far in 2021/22, U.
S.
wheat export sales have totaled 18.
99 million tonnes, down 24.
4% from a year earlier
.
In stark contrast to sluggish wheat export sales in the United States, Australia's wheat export supplies have been largely sold out in the first half of this year.
This is due to the bumper harvest and competitive prices of Australian wheat, which has attracted buyers from the Middle East and Southeast Asia to actively purchase Australian wheat to replace it.
Black Sea supplies disrupted by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
.
Australia's largest exporter, CBH Group, said most of the export supply would not be available until the second half of the year
.
The USDA forecasts Australia will export 27.
5 million tonnes of wheat in 2021/22, just below Russia's 32 million tonnes and the EU-27's 37.
5 million tonnes
.
This is due to the bumper harvest and competitive prices of Australian wheat, which has attracted buyers from the Middle East and Southeast Asia to actively purchase Australian wheat to replace it.
Black Sea supplies disrupted by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
.
Australia's largest exporter, CBH Group, said most of the export supply would not be available until the second half of the year
.
The USDA forecasts Australia will export 27.
5 million tonnes of wheat in 2021/22, just below Russia's 32 million tonnes and the EU-27's 37.
5 million tonnes
.
Australia is also currently facing competition from India
.
CBH said Australian wheat prices are competitive, but Indian wheat prices are lower, so in some traditional markets such as Indonesia, India will compete with Australia
.
The Indian government said that India’s wheat exports in 2021/22 (April to March) reached 7 million tons, with export revenue of $2 billion, compared with $500 million in the previous year; exports in 2022/23 may be as high as 10 million tons
.
Judging from the International Wheat Year (July-June), India's wheat exports from July 2021 to January 2022 reached 4.
9 million tons, an increase of 3.
9 million tons year-on-year
.
.
CBH said Australian wheat prices are competitive, but Indian wheat prices are lower, so in some traditional markets such as Indonesia, India will compete with Australia
.
The Indian government said that India’s wheat exports in 2021/22 (April to March) reached 7 million tons, with export revenue of $2 billion, compared with $500 million in the previous year; exports in 2022/23 may be as high as 10 million tons
.
Judging from the International Wheat Year (July-June), India's wheat exports from July 2021 to January 2022 reached 4.
9 million tons, an increase of 3.
9 million tons year-on-year
.
Brazil's wheat exports in March may reach 535,000 tons
.
It hit a record high for the same period, surpassing the previous record of 492,500 tons
.
Brazil's total wheat exports from October 2021 to February 2022 totaled 2.
03 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA's full-year export target of 1.
7 million tonnes
.
The pace of Brazilian wheat exports picked up in December, reaching a monthly record of 837,000 tonnes in February
.
.
It hit a record high for the same period, surpassing the previous record of 492,500 tons
.
Brazil's total wheat exports from October 2021 to February 2022 totaled 2.
03 million tonnes, exceeding the USDA's full-year export target of 1.
7 million tonnes
.
The pace of Brazilian wheat exports picked up in December, reaching a monthly record of 837,000 tonnes in February
.
