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Global wheat market: prospects for global wheat production improve, wheat prices fall in response

 Last Update: 2021-12-24
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on December 12: In the week ending December 10, 2021, the global wheat market prices have fallen, continuing the decline of the previous week
.
The southern hemisphere wheat is high-yield and the export quotas Russia plans to implement in the second half of the year are basically in line with the export potential.
The weather situation in the winter wheat producing areas in the United States is expected to improve.
The December supply and demand report issued by the US Department of Agriculture is negative, which puts downward pressure on wheat prices
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures fell about 18.
5 cents or 2.
3% from a week ago, to close at 785.
25 cents per cat
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 805.
50 cents per bus, down 18.
75 cents or 2.
3% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 1021.
75 cents per bus, up 1 cent or 0.
1% from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat futures reported approximately 283.
50 Euros/ton, down 6.
50 Euros or 2.
2% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat is US$318/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 96.
05 points, down 0.
1% from a week ago
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raises U.
S.
and global wheat stocks

　　The December supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that the ending stocks of U.
S.
wheat for the 2021/22 season (June to May of the following year) are expected to be 598 million bushes, an increase of 15 million bushes from the previous forecast, which is also higher than the analysis.
The division’s forecast is 589 million cattails; the US wheat export target has been lowered by 20 million cattails to 840 million cattails, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, because the improved production prospects of major export competitors have weakened the potential for American wheat exports
.

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture also estimates that global wheat production is 77789 million tons, higher than the November forecast of 775.
2 million tons, because of higher wheat production in Australia, Canada, the European Union and Russia
.
Global wheat stocks are also expected to be raised to 27818 million tons, higher than last month's 275.
8 million tons, and also higher than analyst expectations
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture predicts that Australian wheat production will reach 34 million tons in 2021/22, which is 2.
5 million tons higher than in November, and the Australian wheat export data is also adjusted to 25.
5 million tons, which is higher than last month’s forecast of 23.
5 million tons, a year-on-year increase 6.
9%
.
Russia’s wheat production was increased by 1 million tons to 75.
5 million tons, but the Russian wheat export data remained unchanged at 36 million tons
.

　　U.
S.
wheat exports still lag behind

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending December 2, 2021, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 239,900 tons, which was significantly higher than last week, but was 27% lower than the four-week average
.
So far this year, total US wheat export sales have reached 14.
56 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.
8%
.

　　Weather forecast shows improved weather in U.
S.
winter wheat producing areas

　　Recently, the weather in the Great Plains of the United States has continued to be dry, resulting in poor winter wheat conditions in the United States, and the excellent and good rate is at a historically low level
.
According to the crop condition data released by the Kansas Bureau of Agriculture of the United States Department of Agriculture, as of December 5, the excellent and good rate of winter wheat in Kansas was 58%, a 4% drop from a week ago
.
However, this is still the highest level since 2014, despite the relatively low soil moisture
.
As of December 5, about 52% of Kansas' topsoil was in short or very short moisture, which was the worst level in nine years
.

　　However, weather forecasts show that the temperature in some winter wheat producing areas may rise, accompanied by rainfall, which will help the growth of winter wheat before it enters the overwintering period
.

　　Russian wheat quota has not yet been finalized

　　After six consecutive weeks of rising, Russian wheat export prices fell last week, following the decline of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and Paris wheat futures
.
According to IAKR, as of December 3, the FOB price of 12.
5% Russian protein wheat delivered in December at the Black Sea port was $337 per ton, down $3 from a week ago
.
SovEcon, another Moscow-based consulting agency, said that the price of Russian wheat was US$340 per ton, down US$3 from a week ago
.

　　There have been recent reports that Russia is considering implementing a 14 million tons grain export quota between February 15 and June 30, including a 9 million tons wheat quota
.
However, the latest news said that the government has not yet made a final decision
.

Wheat prices exported to the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 96.
05 points, down 0.
1% from a week ago
.

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raises U.
S.
and global wheat stocks

　　U.
S.
wheat exports still lag behind

　　Weather forecast shows improved weather in U.
S.
winter wheat producing areas

　　Russian wheat quota has not yet been finalized

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