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Global wheat market: favorable rains in wheat belts in the United States and Argentina

 Last Update: 2021-09-10
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on September 5: As of the week of September 3, 2021, most of the global wheat prices have fallen, and some areas of the Midwest and Great Plains of the United States ushered in favorable rainfall, which replenishes soil moisture and helps winter wheat planting
.
There was also timely rainfall in the wheat growing belt of Argentina
.
The U.
S.
Gulf export facility was closed due to Hurricane Ida, which also raises concerns that the pace of U.
S.
grain exports will slow down
.
However, global wheat supply remains tight, restricting the decline in wheat prices
.

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December soft red winter wheat futures fell by about 6.
25 cents or 0.
9% from a week ago, to close at 726.
25 cents per cat
.
The December hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 723 cents per bust, down 1 cent or 0.
1% from a week ago
.
The December hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 912.
50 cents per bus, down 5.
25 or 0.
6% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported approximately 244.
50 Euros/ton, down 2.
25 Euros or 0.
9% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$287/ton, down US$4 or 1.
4% from a week ago, FOB prices
.

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of August 29, the US spring wheat harvest progress was 88%, compared with 77% a week ago, 66% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 71%
.
The planting of winter wheat in the United States is about to start.
Recently, large-scale rainfall processes have occurred in parts of the Midwest and the Great Plains, supplementing soil moisture in dry areas, which is very conducive to planting and early crop growth
.

　　The outlook for wheat production in South America has also improved, especially in Argentina
.
In the past week, 30 to 40 millimeters of rain have generally been seen in the main agricultural areas of Argentina, helping to improve the prospects for wheat crop production
.
It is winter in South America
.
The low rainfall in the first few months of this year has caused farmers' concerns, but the recent timely rains have helped to increase production expectations
.
Argentina will start harvesting wheat in November
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday that these rains have reversed the water shortage that was threatening wheat growth a few days ago
.
The exchange expects 19 million tons of Argentine wheat production in 2021/22
.
The meteorological agency expects another rain in the Argentine plains in the second half of September
.

　　The outlook for Ukrainian wheat production remains clear
.
According to the analysis agency APK-Inform, based on the progress and results of the wheat harvest, APK-Inform raised its 2021 wheat production forecast in Ukraine by 8% to a record 31.
2 million tons, an increase of 26% from the 24.
9 million tons in 2020 due to rainfall.
Good
.
According to the Hydrometeorological Center of Ukraine, in the past 40 days, rainfall in most parts of Ukraine has exceeded normal levels for many years
.
Current data show that the average wheat yield is 15 to 20% higher than the highest level of the past decade
.

　　In the Black Sea region, the consulting agency SovEcon lowered Russia's wheat output by 800,000 tons in 2021, from an earlier forecast of 76.
2 million tons to 75.
4 million tons, because the hot and dry weather in the Ural and Volga regions led to a decline in spring wheat production
.
In the past three months, the rainfall in these two areas was only 50% to 80% of normal levels, and the temperature was 3 to 5 degrees Celsius higher than normal
.
Last week SovEcon predicted that Russia’s wheat exports in 2021/22 will fall to the lowest level in five years, due to reduced wheat production and a slower pace of exports, and fierce competition from countries such as Ukraine
.

　　The output report released by Statistics Canada this week showed that the dry weather in the agricultural production areas of Western Canada this year, and the temperature hit a record high, led to a sharp decline in crop yields, and wheat output hit the lowest level in 14 years
.
Canada’s total wheat production in 2021/22 is expected to be 22.
9 million tons, a decrease of 34.
8% from 2020/21 and slightly higher than the 22.
6 million tons expected by industry insiders
.
The yield of wheat per acre is expected to drop to 37.
2 cats per acre, a decrease of 28.
7% year-on-year, and the harvested area is also 8.
5% less than the previous year
.

　　From the perspective of U.
S.
wheat exports, the weekly export sales report of the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture shows that for the week ending August 26, 2021, net sales of wheat in the U.
S.
for the year 2021/22 were 295,300 tons, an increase of 15% from the four-week average
.
So far in the 2021/22 year, the total US wheat export sales totaled 9,423,300 tons, a decrease of 23.
5% over the same period of the previous year
.

Wheat prices U.
S.
exports of grains

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