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However, uncertainty surrounding the prospect of renewing the Black Sea grain export agreement has added to market volatility
.
Russia's announcement over the weekend to withdraw from the grain export deal heralded upward pressure
on wheat prices in Chicago next week.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December soft red winter wheat season closed at about $8.
2925 a bushel on Friday, down 2.
5 percent
from a week ago.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) hard red winter wheat for December closed at about $9.
25 a bushel, down 2.
5 percent
from a week ago.
The Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) December hard red spring wheat season closed at about $9.
45/bu, up 1.
7 percent
from a week ago.
Euronext's December 2022 futures closed at around 337.
50 euros/mt, down 1.
3% from a week ago; Argentine wheat spot was quoted at $420/mt, down 0.
5%
from a week ago.
2925 a bushel on Friday, down 2.
5 percent
from a week ago.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) hard red winter wheat for December closed at about $9.
25 a bushel, down 2.
5 percent
from a week ago.
The Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) December hard red spring wheat season closed at about $9.
45/bu, up 1.
7 percent
from a week ago.
Euronext's December 2022 futures closed at around 337.
50 euros/mt, down 1.
3% from a week ago; Argentine wheat spot was quoted at $420/mt, down 0.
5%
from a week ago.
The ICE dollar index closed at 110.
606 points on Friday, down 1.
23%
from a week ago.
606 points on Friday, down 1.
23%
from a week ago.
Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain export agreement
Russia's Defense Ministry announced on Saturday that Russia had stopped participating in a U.
N.
-brokered grain export agreement
due to Ukraine's massive drone attacks on Russian ships involved in ensuring the safe passage of grain ships.
The agreement expires on November 19, and the United Nations has been actively mediating its renewal, but Russia's demands for the agreement have not been met
.
Russia has been accusing the agreement of not fulfilling its recommendations to improve Russian grain and fertilizer exports; Moreover, only a small part of Ukraine's grain exports go to poor countries facing humanitarian crises, and about half to European countries
where there is no food crisis.
N.
-brokered grain export agreement
due to Ukraine's massive drone attacks on Russian ships involved in ensuring the safe passage of grain ships.
The agreement expires on November 19, and the United Nations has been actively mediating its renewal, but Russia's demands for the agreement have not been met
.
Russia has been accusing the agreement of not fulfilling its recommendations to improve Russian grain and fertilizer exports; Moreover, only a small part of Ukraine's grain exports go to poor countries facing humanitarian crises, and about half to European countries
where there is no food crisis.
Russian Minister of Agriculture on Saturday Dmitry ? Patushev said Moscow is ready to send up to 500,000 tons of grain
to the world's poorest countries over the next four months with the help of Turkey.
He noted that taking into account the bumper grain production this year, Russia is capable of completely replacing Ukrainian grain and supplying grain
to all interested countries at reasonable prices.
Turkish defense analyst Turan Oguz said the deal benefited the West because Ukraine's large exports helped reduce Western food inflation, but Russia did not benefit from the agreement
.
He believes that the main reason for Russia's withdrawal from the agreement is the West's disregard
for Russian demands.
to the world's poorest countries over the next four months with the help of Turkey.
He noted that taking into account the bumper grain production this year, Russia is capable of completely replacing Ukrainian grain and supplying grain
to all interested countries at reasonable prices.
Turkish defense analyst Turan Oguz said the deal benefited the West because Ukraine's large exports helped reduce Western food inflation, but Russia did not benefit from the agreement
.
He believes that the main reason for Russia's withdrawal from the agreement is the West's disregard
for Russian demands.
Nearly 80% of winter wheat has been planted in the United States, and future rainfall will help wheat growth
As of Oct.
23, U.
S.
winter wheat planting progress was 79 percent, compared with 79 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 78 percent
, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress report.
The emergence rate of winter wheat was 49%, compared to 53% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 56%.
23, U.
S.
winter wheat planting progress was 79 percent, compared with 79 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 78 percent
, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress report.
The emergence rate of winter wheat was 49%, compared to 53% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 56%.
The U.
S.
Drought Monitor reports that nearly three-quarters of the U.
S.
winter wheat-producing areas are in moderate to severe drought, the highest level
since records began in 2000.
Drought not only hinders winter wheat growth, but also prevents fertilization in the field, which can reduce wheat yields and push up prices
.
About 33 percent of Kansas, the top winter wheat-producing region, is in a hyper-dry state (D4), the highest D4 level since February 2013 and the highest D4 ratio
of any U.
S.
state.
The Weather Forecasting Center's seasonal outlook report shows that the main cause of drought in the southern plains is La Niña, which will receive below-normal rainfall in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas over the next three months, meaning that drought
will continue or return to these areas this winter.
S.
Drought Monitor reports that nearly three-quarters of the U.
S.
winter wheat-producing areas are in moderate to severe drought, the highest level
since records began in 2000.
Drought not only hinders winter wheat growth, but also prevents fertilization in the field, which can reduce wheat yields and push up prices
.
About 33 percent of Kansas, the top winter wheat-producing region, is in a hyper-dry state (D4), the highest D4 level since February 2013 and the highest D4 ratio
of any U.
S.
state.
The Weather Forecasting Center's seasonal outlook report shows that the main cause of drought in the southern plains is La Niña, which will receive below-normal rainfall in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas over the next three months, meaning that drought
will continue or return to these areas this winter.
However, there may be rainfall
in winter wheat producing areas in the near future.
The next two weeks of rain will spread to the entire soft red winter wheat producing region in the Midwest, significantly improving soil moisture and helping new wheat grows
, according to the Commodity Weather Group.
Friday's National Weather Service weather forecast showed that a low-pressure system centered in the south-central United States over the next five days will slowly cross the lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend, bringing 1 to 2 inches of rain to the southern U.
S.
Plains, but dry
weather in the northern and central plains.
The six- to 10-day outlook for Nov.
2-6 shows warmer temperatures in much of the U.
S.
Plains, with higher-than-normal
rainfall in the West and Central.
in winter wheat producing areas in the near future.
The next two weeks of rain will spread to the entire soft red winter wheat producing region in the Midwest, significantly improving soil moisture and helping new wheat grows
, according to the Commodity Weather Group.
Friday's National Weather Service weather forecast showed that a low-pressure system centered in the south-central United States over the next five days will slowly cross the lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend, bringing 1 to 2 inches of rain to the southern U.
S.
Plains, but dry
weather in the northern and central plains.
The six- to 10-day outlook for Nov.
2-6 shows warmer temperatures in much of the U.
S.
Plains, with higher-than-normal
rainfall in the West and Central.
US net wheat sales in 2022/23 were 533,200 mt for the week ended Oct.
20, 2022, higher than market expectations of 100,000 to 500,000 mt and also higher than 185,100 mt
a week earlier, USDA's weekly export sales report showed.
Year-to-date U.
S.
wheat export sales totalled 11.
823 million mt, down 6.
2%
year-on-year.
20, 2022, higher than market expectations of 100,000 to 500,000 mt and also higher than 185,100 mt
a week earlier, USDA's weekly export sales report showed.
Year-to-date U.
S.
wheat export sales totalled 11.
823 million mt, down 6.
2%
year-on-year.
Argentine wheat production continued to be revised downward
On October 26, the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) lowered Argentina's wheat production forecast for 2022/23 to 13.
7 million mt, down from 15 million mt
forecast last week.
On Friday, the BCR said wheat production could fall further to 12.
5 million tonnes, down 45.
7 percent from a record 23 million tonnes a year ago, and would also be the lowest since 2015/16 as a record
drought badly damaged yields.
Christian Russo, head of analysis at the exchange, said Argentina suffered an unprecedented drought
.
Water reserves on more than half of Buenos Aires' farmland are at a 30-year low
.
9.
2% of the wheat acreage in 2022/23 will be unharvested due to poor condition, compared to 6.
6%
previously forecast.
The BCR also revised the average wheat yield to 2.
58 tonnes per hectare from its previous forecast of 2.
72 tonnes
per hectare.
There were rumors this week that Argentina might even impose a three-month ban on wheat exports, but that rumor has not been confirmed
.
7 million mt, down from 15 million mt
forecast last week.
On Friday, the BCR said wheat production could fall further to 12.
5 million tonnes, down 45.
7 percent from a record 23 million tonnes a year ago, and would also be the lowest since 2015/16 as a record
drought badly damaged yields.
Christian Russo, head of analysis at the exchange, said Argentina suffered an unprecedented drought
.
Water reserves on more than half of Buenos Aires' farmland are at a 30-year low
.
9.
2% of the wheat acreage in 2022/23 will be unharvested due to poor condition, compared to 6.
6%
previously forecast.
The BCR also revised the average wheat yield to 2.
58 tonnes per hectare from its previous forecast of 2.
72 tonnes
per hectare.
There were rumors this week that Argentina might even impose a three-month ban on wheat exports, but that rumor has not been confirmed
.
As Argentina's wheat harvest failure hurts its export capacity, Brazil may need to import wheat
from the United States, Canada and even Russia.
In 2021/22, Brazil imported only 155,000 mt of wheat
from countries outside MERCOSUR.
But StoneX analysts believe it could rise to 1 million to 1.
5 million tons of wheat
this year.
from the United States, Canada and even Russia.
In 2021/22, Brazil imported only 155,000 mt of wheat
from countries outside MERCOSUR.
But StoneX analysts believe it could rise to 1 million to 1.
5 million tons of wheat
this year.
Canadian wheat production was revised up slightly
Canada's 2022/23 wheat production was slightly revised up to 34.
703 million mt, a significant increase of 55.
6 per cent from the previous year, due to increased sown acreage and yields and lower
abandonment rates, according to Canada's October supply and demand report.
All wheat yields are expected to be 3.
45 tonnes per hectare, up 42.
4%
year-on-year.
Canada's wheat exports are expected to reach 23.
3 million mt, up 100,000 mt from the previous month and up 54 per cent
from the previous year, due to increased supply and lower supply from competitors.
Domestic consumption is expected to be 9 million tons, down 6.
3%
year-on-year.
Wheat ending stocks are expected to rise to 6.
2 million mt, up 68.
8 percent
year-on-year.
703 million mt, a significant increase of 55.
6 per cent from the previous year, due to increased sown acreage and yields and lower
abandonment rates, according to Canada's October supply and demand report.
All wheat yields are expected to be 3.
45 tonnes per hectare, up 42.
4%
year-on-year.
Canada's wheat exports are expected to reach 23.
3 million mt, up 100,000 mt from the previous month and up 54 per cent
from the previous year, due to increased supply and lower supply from competitors.
Domestic consumption is expected to be 9 million tons, down 6.
3%
year-on-year.
Wheat ending stocks are expected to rise to 6.
2 million mt, up 68.
8 percent
year-on-year.
