Global soybean oil demand is booming

Introduction: since this year, China's soybean import has shown a sustained and rapid growth trend, which has seriously inhibited the spot price of domestic soybean At present, there is no market for the sales of new soybean in Northeast China The import soybean stock in port area is overstocked Most of the soybean crushing enterprises are in the state of production suspension and semi production suspension, and the whole market is in a downturn However, at present, the global edible oil market is increasingly tense, especially the demand for soybean oil is more vigorous, and the international oil price is expected to rise further next year Therefore, it is likely to ease the pressure of China's accession to the WTO on the soybean market According to the prediction of oil world in Hamburg, Germany, the global soybean oil production will reach 28.6 million tons in 2001 / 2002, an increase of 1.74 million tons (6.48% over the previous year) However, the expected increase in soybean oil production is insufficient to cover the supply and demand gap left by the decline in palm oil production In particular, the output of rapeseed oil and sunflower oil decreased significantly, which exacerbated the gap It can be seen that the global vegetable oil market will be more in short supply next year According to the oil world, in 2001 / 2002, the world's soybean crushing will account for 58% of the world's 10 major oil seeds, compared with 55% on average in the past five years The increasing proportion of soybean squeezing in oilseed squeezing reflects the steady growth of soybean squeezing in recent years Of course, this squeezing structure also largely reflects the abundant soybean supply, as well as the shortage of rapeseed and sunflower seed supply At present, it has become a consensus in the industry that the oil price is expected to rise, and with the rise of oil price, the price of soybean oil seed will also rise From the perspective of the relatively low price of soybean oil in the world, in 2002, China implemented a new tariff quota for soybean oil, i.e providing 2.52 million tons of soybean oil quota and 13% of import tariff within the quota, which will inevitably bring a large number of imported soybean oil into China, and will also have a great impact on the soybean industry in China However, with the change of international soybean oil supply and demand and the gradual increase of global soybean oil price, the gap between international oil price and domestic soybean oil price is bound to be greatly narrowed, so the expectation of China's soybean oil import will naturally change At the same time, the rising of global soybean oil price will also increase the squeezing amount of raw soybean, thus raising the market price of soybean.