Global soybean demand will rise sharply in 2001 / 02

Introduction: after the bottom in April, the international soybean and its by-product market began to recover in the last few weeks, and started from the oil seeds, meat protein and vegetable oil in 2001-02, and went out of a sharp upward trend Although the rebound is also related to the weather changes in the new production areas of the United States, the climate is not the decisive factor One of the most important factors is the consolidation of several new indexes in the United States last week and the increase of global consumption in 2001-02 After the off-season of 1997-98, the consumption of oilseeds will increase significantly again in 2001-02, which is at least an initial sign that the market will be active in September, and will be reflected in the market soon It mainly depends on the development of the global economy in the future The main cause of demand growth is the recovery of the world economy after 2000, especially the rise of some Asian developing countries which experienced the financial crisis of 1997-98 Then we can see that the higher growth rate is about to become a reality As a result of the well-known financial crisis, global GDP fell from 4.2% in 1997 to 2.8% in 1998 and 3.5% in 1999 But after 1999, the economy began to show a more clear recovery, especially in some Asian countries Last year, the global GDP growth rate reached 4.8%, the highest in the past 20 years In 2001, taking into account the U.S economic downturn and Japan's continued downturn, the figure fell to 3.2%, which can be predicted to reach 3.9% after 2002 Even so, there are still some positive factors in promoting consumption, after all, 3.2% is still slightly higher than the average level of the past 10 years Positive factors: the oil crisis has been temporarily resolved, from $30 per barrel in 2000 to $25 per barrel this year The US central bank has adopted restrictive monetary policy, which can promote us economic growth The Japanese government has also used many means to stimulate the financial market, making the growth rate in 2000 reach 1.7% By contrast, EU countries are relatively stable, with an average growth rate of around 2%, taking 2000 as an example, the figure is 3.4% Asia's economy is still at a high speed, with a growth rate of 7.1% in 2000 (including Japan), the highest since 1995 This is particularly important for food consumption, where the majority of the world's poor are concentrated Negative: oil producers are still likely to take containment measures to influence prices, so the price of oil is unlikely to be too far away from $30 a barrel There is no accurate forecast on the trend of the US economy First of all, the forecast of GDP growth of 1.5% in 2001 lacks sufficient basis Japan's growth is not obvious, and the whole recovery process needs the strong support of the United States The growth rate in 2001 is only 0.6%, maybe it can reach 1.5% in 2002 with the support of the United States Excessive dependence makes Japan's future not so bright In addition, there are many unknown events, such as the energy crisis in Brazil.