Global oilseed market: US soybean prices rose, rapeseed fell

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January 2022 soybean futures rose by about 19 cents or 1.
5% from a week ago, to close at 1,263.
25 cents per bushel
.
The spot price of US Bay No.
1 yellow soybeans was 13.
3375 US dollars per cat (490.
1 US dollars per ton), up 29.
625 cents or 2.
27% from a week ago
.
On the Euronext exchange, the rapeseed futures in February 2022 closed at approximately 677.
75 euros/ton, down 32.
5 euros or 4.
6% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed period of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell by about 19.
7 Canadian dollars or 1.
9% from a week ago to close at 1,005.
60 Canadian dollars per ton; Argentina’s Shanghe soybean FOB spot price was 551 US dollars (including 33% export tax).
A week ago it rose by $8 or 1.
47%
.
The January soybean settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,328 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.
7% from a week ago
.

 

Seasonal growth in U.
S.
soybean crush

 

The monthly crush data released by the National Oilseed Processing Industry Association (NOPA) on November 15 showed that the soybean crush of NOPA member companies in October was higher than expected, reaching 183993 million bushels, which was a three-month low of 1.
538 set in September.
Yipu increased by 19.
6%, which is also the third monthly squeeze high in history
.
In the November supply and demand report, the US Department of Agriculture maintained the forecast value of the US soybean crush for the year of 2021/22 unchanged, which is still 2.
190 billion bu, which is higher than the 2020/21 crush of 2.
141 billion bu
.

 

　　Long and short export news staggered

 

　　From Monday to Wednesday, the US Department of Agriculture continuously reported single-day export sales.
Private exporters reported on Monday that they sold 264,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, Tuesday reported that they sold 161,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, and Wednesday they reported that they sold 132,000 tons to China.
Soybeans will be delivered in 2021/22
.
It is worth mentioning that the video summit held by the heads of state of China and the United States on Tuesday may help to improve the tension between the two countries, and it is expected that China may accelerate the purchase of US soybeans
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending November 11, 2021, US soybean net sales for the year 2021/22 were 1,382,700 tons, an increase of 13% from last week, but a decrease of 20% from the four-week average
.
So far this year, the total US soybean export sales have reached 34.
61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.
4%
.

 

　　Taking into account the increased competition for Brazilian soybean exports, it may lead to the early closure of the US soybean export window, which means that it is still difficult for US soybean exports to achieve their goals
.
People familiar with the matter said that China bought at least 30 ships of soybeans from the United States and Brazil last week, more than half of which came from Brazil
.
Soybean planting in Brazil is progressing smoothly this year.
The gas has been good so far, and the output is expected to reach a record high of more than 140 million tons.
The harvest time will also be earlier than last year, which means that Brazilian soybeans will start a battle with US soybeans in the export market ahead of schedule
.
The devaluation of the real also makes Brazilian soybeans more competitive
.
Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso State, the No.
1 producing region, is expected to start around Christmas.
The new season soybeans may start to be exported in the second half of January, putting pressure on the Brazilian soybean ports for delivery early next year
.
According to data from the consulting agency Safras & Mercado, the quotation of Brazilian soybeans for February shipments at Paranagua Port is 50 cents/bus higher than that of Chicago soybeans
.
For comparison, the premium for Brazilian soybeans in February a year ago was 125 cents per cat
.
On Monday, the premium for US Gulf soybeans in February is 60 cents per bushel, so in terms of premium, Brazilian soybeans are more attractive
.

 

　　Canola prices in Canada rise and fall

 

　　Canadian rapeseed prices fell slightly this week
.
After a sustained increase in recent times, rapeseed prices seem to have begun to limit demand, resulting in squeezing profits and export profits
.
According to data released by the Canadian Grain Council, from November 8 to 14, 2021, Canada's rapeseed exports were 127,000 tons, a decrease of 48.
8% from a week ago
.
The export volume so far this year is 1.
93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.
2%
.
The domestic consumption from November 8 to 14 was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 38.
3% from a week ago
.
Domestic consumption so far this year is 2,804,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.
1%
.
Speculative funds have established a large number of orders in the rapeseed futures and options market, which is equivalent to more than 25% of the empty order.
Therefore, a slight disturbance can easily lead to a surge of liquidation and selling
.
As of November 16, 2021, speculative funds have net long positions of 53,669 lots in the rapeseed futures and options market, a decrease of 363 lots from a week ago
.

 

　　Soybean planting in Argentina is progressing in an all-round way
.
The weekly report issued by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) in Argentina stated that for the week ending November 17, 2021, the soybean planting progress in Argentina in 2021/2 was 28.
6%, an increase from 18.
8% a week ago.
9.
8%
.
The exchange estimates that the country's soybean production in 2021/2022 will be 44 million tons, higher than the previous year's 43.
1 million tons
.

 

　　The area planted to rapeseed in the UK and Germany will increase

 

　　According to the German oilseed industry association UFOP, the sown area of ​​winter rapeseed in Germany harvested in 2022 may increase to 1.
03 to 1.
08 million hectares, higher than the 991,000 hectares of rapeseed in 2020/21
.
This is also the first time that UFOP has released its rapeseed planting area forecast for the next year
.
UFOP said that rising rapeseed prices will encourage many farmers to increase their planting scale
.
Since the summer, EU rapeseed prices have risen steadily, setting a record high because of the tight global rapeseed supply
.
The Euronext rapeseed futures price rose from slightly more than 500 euros/ton in August to 715.
75 euros/ton in November, setting a record high
.
According to UFOP, the weather conditions are good and the German rapeseed crops are generally in good condition
.
However, due to the restrictions on the use of pesticides in the EU in recent years, the problem of pests and diseases is worrying
.

 

　　According to a planting survey released by the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (ADHB) on Friday, the area of ​​rapeseed in the UK will increase by 12.
9% year-on-year to 345,000 hectares in 2022, which is also driven by high global oilseed prices
.
According to AHDB, because of the attractive forward price of rapeseed, many people would have expected a higher increase in planting area
.
However, the high cost of production input, coupled with the cabbage stem jumping beetle problem, may limit the increase in the area of ​​rapeseed in the UK
.