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U.
S.
soybean crushing margins, improved export demand, soaring U.
S.
soybean oil, a rebound in international crude oil futures, and a retreat in the U.
S.
dollar all helped boost oilseeds higher
.
However, expectations of a bumper soybean production in Brazil and lingering fears of a global recession limited oilseed gains
.
November 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about $13.
955/bu on Friday, up 0.
9% from a week ago; The average spot price of US No.
1 yellow soybeans for November shipping in the US Gulf was $15.
83 per bushel, up 0.
75% from a week ago; CBOT's December soybean meal was trading at $417.
90 a short tonne, up 1.
7 percent from a week ago, and December soybean oil futures were at 71.
50 cents a pound, up 9.
5 percent from a week ago; Euronext's February 2023 futures closed at around Eur636.
75/mt, down 0.
2%
from a week ago.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola for January closed at C$880.
50/mt, up 1.
3% from a week ago; Argentina's spot FOB for soybeans was quoted at $599 a tonne (including 33% export tax), up 1.
7%
from a week ago.
955/bu on Friday, up 0.
9% from a week ago; The average spot price of US No.
1 yellow soybeans for November shipping in the US Gulf was $15.
83 per bushel, up 0.
75% from a week ago; CBOT's December soybean meal was trading at $417.
90 a short tonne, up 1.
7 percent from a week ago, and December soybean oil futures were at 71.
50 cents a pound, up 9.
5 percent from a week ago; Euronext's February 2023 futures closed at around Eur636.
75/mt, down 0.
2%
from a week ago.
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola for January closed at C$880.
50/mt, up 1.
3% from a week ago; Argentina's spot FOB for soybeans was quoted at $599 a tonne (including 33% export tax), up 1.
7%
from a week ago.
ICE's dollar index closed at 111.
98 points on Friday, down 1.
1 percent
from a week ago.
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) December contract closed at $85.
05 a barrel on Friday, up about 0.
5 percent
from a week ago.
The global benchmark December Brent crude futures were at $93.
50 a barrel, up about 2 percent
from a week ago.
98 points on Friday, down 1.
1 percent
from a week ago.
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) December contract closed at $85.
05 a barrel on Friday, up about 0.
5 percent
from a week ago.
The global benchmark December Brent crude futures were at $93.
50 a barrel, up about 2 percent
from a week ago.
Fed monetary tightening turned sooner than expected?
The Fed is expected to raise the federal funds lending rate by another 75 basis points at its Nov.
1-2 meeting, bringing it to the range of
3.
75% to 4.
00%.
Higher borrowing costs will weigh on future U.
S.
economic activity, reducing confidence that the Fed can deliver a soft landing
.
The chaos in Europe has also further affected market confidence in the global economic outlook, and recession fears continue to intensify
.
This has also prompted some investment banks to expect the Fed to end its balance sheet reduction policy
sooner than expected.
Oct.
20 Barclays expects the Fed to slow or stop shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet in 2023, sooner
than many now expect.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the Fed's super-release balance sheet has continued to expand, surging from $4.
2 trillion in March 2020 to a peak
of $9 trillion this spring.
The Fed has begun tapering $95 billion a month since September and currently holds $8.
8 trillion
.
UBS also predicts that the Fed will end its current quantitative tightening
in June 2023.
Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve's San Francisco branch on Friday, said it was time
to start talking about slowing rate hikes.
1-2 meeting, bringing it to the range of
3.
75% to 4.
00%.
Higher borrowing costs will weigh on future U.
S.
economic activity, reducing confidence that the Fed can deliver a soft landing
.
The chaos in Europe has also further affected market confidence in the global economic outlook, and recession fears continue to intensify
.
This has also prompted some investment banks to expect the Fed to end its balance sheet reduction policy
sooner than expected.
Oct.
20 Barclays expects the Fed to slow or stop shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet in 2023, sooner
than many now expect.
Since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the Fed's super-release balance sheet has continued to expand, surging from $4.
2 trillion in March 2020 to a peak
of $9 trillion this spring.
The Fed has begun tapering $95 billion a month since September and currently holds $8.
8 trillion
.
UBS also predicts that the Fed will end its current quantitative tightening
in June 2023.
Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve's San Francisco branch on Friday, said it was time
to start talking about slowing rate hikes.
U.
S.
soybean harvest progress exceeds historical averages, and next week's report may show more than 80% completion
S.
soybean harvest progress exceeds historical averages, and next week's report may show more than 80% completion
The USDA's weekly crop progress report shows that U.
S.
soybean harvest progress exceeds the historical average, with 63 percent of U.
S.
soybean harvest as of Oct.
16, compared with 58 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 52 percent
.
The soybean excellence rate remained unchanged at 57%.
The central U.
S.
has been relatively dry over the past week, and next Monday's report could show a soybean harvest of more than
80 percent.
But Friday's 72-hour precipitation forecast from the U.
S.
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed a new round of rain in the U.
S.
Midwest from Oct.
23 to 25 (Saturday to Tuesday); From October 28 to November 3, precipitation in the Midwest was close to normal
.
U.
S.
drought monitor data showed that the proportion of drought-driven areas driven by corn and soybean planting in the United States rose 13 points
in the week ended Oct.
18 from the previous week.
S.
soybean harvest progress exceeds the historical average, with 63 percent of U.
S.
soybean harvest as of Oct.
16, compared with 58 percent a year ago and a five-year average of 52 percent
.
The soybean excellence rate remained unchanged at 57%.
The central U.
S.
has been relatively dry over the past week, and next Monday's report could show a soybean harvest of more than
80 percent.
But Friday's 72-hour precipitation forecast from the U.
S.
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed a new round of rain in the U.
S.
Midwest from Oct.
23 to 25 (Saturday to Tuesday); From October 28 to November 3, precipitation in the Midwest was close to normal
.
U.
S.
drought monitor data showed that the proportion of drought-driven areas driven by corn and soybean planting in the United States rose 13 points
in the week ended Oct.
18 from the previous week.
Looking back at the USDA's October supply and demand report, the U.
S.
soybean production forecast for 2022 was lowered to 4.
313 billion bushels, 0.
65 billion bushels lower than the previous month's forecast, marking the second consecutive month of lower soybean production
.
Due to fierce competition in South America, the US soybean export estimate was lowered to 2.
045 billion bushels, 0.
4 billion bushels
lower than the previous month.
S.
soybean production forecast for 2022 was lowered to 4.
313 billion bushels, 0.
65 billion bushels lower than the previous month's forecast, marking the second consecutive month of lower soybean production
.
Due to fierce competition in South America, the US soybean export estimate was lowered to 2.
045 billion bushels, 0.
4 billion bushels
lower than the previous month.
U.
S.
soybean exports were buoyant, but still lower than in the same period last year
S.
soybean exports were buoyant, but still lower than in the same period last year
USDA's weekly export sales report showed that soybean sales totaled 2.
34 million mt in 2022/23 for the week ended Oct.
13, 2022, well above the 720,000 mt a week ago and at the high end of analysts' expectations range of 800,000 mt to 2.
5 million mt, but down from 2.
88 million mt
in the same week last year.
Sales to China were 1.
98 million mt that week, up from 622,000 mt last week and 1.
88 million mt
in the same period last year.
34 million mt in 2022/23 for the week ended Oct.
13, 2022, well above the 720,000 mt a week ago and at the high end of analysts' expectations range of 800,000 mt to 2.
5 million mt, but down from 2.
88 million mt
in the same week last year.
Sales to China were 1.
98 million mt that week, up from 622,000 mt last week and 1.
88 million mt
in the same period last year.
So far in 2022/23, which began in September, total US soybean export sales (including shipped and unloaded sales) were 30.
52 million mt, up 5% year-on-year; Among them, the total sales to China were about 16.
63 million tons, an increase of 11.
1%
year-on-year.
52 million mt, up 5% year-on-year; Among them, the total sales to China were about 16.
63 million tons, an increase of 11.
1%
year-on-year.
The USDA announced on Thursday that private exporters reported selling 201,000 mt of soybeans to China and 132,000 mt to unknown destinations, both for delivery
in 2022/23.
From Wednesday to Friday, the USDA reported 1.
6 million mt of soybeans
sold to China and unknown destinations.
According to a trader working for an international trader, Chinese buyers bought low volumes from July to September this year, when soybean prices were high, and Chinese buyers' purchases covered only 80% of demand.
Then there were problems with the Mississippi River, where the loading of soybeans that were supposed to be shipped in October was delayed until November, and up to 3 million tons of U.
S.
soybeans scheduled to arrive in China this month and November could be delayed by about 15 to 20 days
.
This signals that China's soybean imports could fall to their lowest level in more than two years in October, while imports have fallen
in September and August.
Tight domestic supplies have prompted Chinese buyers to aggressively buy U.
S.
soybeans
recently.
Last week, the USDA forecast that China would import 98 million mt of soybeans in 2022/23, 1 million mt higher than last month's forecast and 8.
9 percent
higher than the previous year's 90 million mt.
in 2022/23.
From Wednesday to Friday, the USDA reported 1.
6 million mt of soybeans
sold to China and unknown destinations.
According to a trader working for an international trader, Chinese buyers bought low volumes from July to September this year, when soybean prices were high, and Chinese buyers' purchases covered only 80% of demand.
Then there were problems with the Mississippi River, where the loading of soybeans that were supposed to be shipped in October was delayed until November, and up to 3 million tons of U.
S.
soybeans scheduled to arrive in China this month and November could be delayed by about 15 to 20 days
.
This signals that China's soybean imports could fall to their lowest level in more than two years in October, while imports have fallen
in September and August.
Tight domestic supplies have prompted Chinese buyers to aggressively buy U.
S.
soybeans
recently.
Last week, the USDA forecast that China would import 98 million mt of soybeans in 2022/23, 1 million mt higher than last month's forecast and 8.
9 percent
higher than the previous year's 90 million mt.
The low water level of the Mississippi River affects the outlet
Transportation delays caused by low water levels in the Mississippi River in the United States remain the focus
of market attention.
The Memphis section of the Mississippi River closed again this week as water levels dropped to record lows; The port of Baton Rouge limited the vessel's draft to 41 feet, down from 45 feet previously, limiting the carrying capacity of U.
S
.
grain ships.
The U.
S.
government weather agency said Thursday that low water levels in the Mississippi River are likely to persist
this winter because the weather in the southern U.
S.
and along the Gulf Coast is drier than normal.
Rainfall tends to be lower than normal throughout the lower Mississippi Valley, which will lead to persistently low water levels in the Mississippi River and exacerbate drought conditions
there.
of market attention.
The Memphis section of the Mississippi River closed again this week as water levels dropped to record lows; The port of Baton Rouge limited the vessel's draft to 41 feet, down from 45 feet previously, limiting the carrying capacity of U.
S
.
grain ships.
The U.
S.
government weather agency said Thursday that low water levels in the Mississippi River are likely to persist
this winter because the weather in the southern U.
S.
and along the Gulf Coast is drier than normal.
Rainfall tends to be lower than normal throughout the lower Mississippi Valley, which will lead to persistently low water levels in the Mississippi River and exacerbate drought conditions
there.
Brazilian soybean planting accelerated
Recent rains in central and western Brazil have helped accelerate soybean planting in
2022/23.
Brazilian farmers planted 6 million hectares of soybeans in the week ending Oct.
13, boosting planting progress to 24 percent, up from 22 percent
in the same period last year, according to consultancy AgRural.
The Brazilian government expects annual soybean production to exceed 152 million tonnes in 2022/2023, with planted area rising to 42.
89 million hectares, a record increase
of 3.
4% over the previous year.
Heavy rains continued this week in soybean-producing regions in southern Brazil, especially in the state of Parana, where heavy rains have delayed planting
in recent weeks.
However, weather forecasts show that clearer weather will help speed up
the planting process.
Recent rainfall has significantly improved soil moisture and also contributed to the early growth of
crops.
2022/23.
Brazilian farmers planted 6 million hectares of soybeans in the week ending Oct.
13, boosting planting progress to 24 percent, up from 22 percent
in the same period last year, according to consultancy AgRural.
The Brazilian government expects annual soybean production to exceed 152 million tonnes in 2022/2023, with planted area rising to 42.
89 million hectares, a record increase
of 3.
4% over the previous year.
Heavy rains continued this week in soybean-producing regions in southern Brazil, especially in the state of Parana, where heavy rains have delayed planting
in recent weeks.
However, weather forecasts show that clearer weather will help speed up
the planting process.
Recent rainfall has significantly improved soil moisture and also contributed to the early growth of
crops.
According to the report of the U.
S.
Agricultural Counsellor, Brazilian farmers continue to expand their planting area due to record domestic soybean prices; Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 is expected to reach a record 148.
5 million mt, up from an earlier forecast of 144 million mt
.
Export estimates have increased from 92 million tonnes to 95.
7 million mt
.
The 2022/23 soybean processing forecast has been raised to a record 50 million mt
due to strong export demand for manufactured soybeans, particularly soybean oil.
S.
Agricultural Counsellor, Brazilian farmers continue to expand their planting area due to record domestic soybean prices; Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 is expected to reach a record 148.
5 million mt, up from an earlier forecast of 144 million mt
.
Export estimates have increased from 92 million tonnes to 95.
7 million mt
.
The 2022/23 soybean processing forecast has been raised to a record 50 million mt
due to strong export demand for manufactured soybeans, particularly soybean oil.
The pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed significantly
With the end of the special preferential exchange rate in September, the pace of soybean sales for Argentine farmers slowed
significantly after entering October.
Argentine farmers sold just 55,000 mt of soybeans in the week ended Oct.
12, down from 376,000 mt the week before and 1.
787 million mt
in the week ended Sept.
28.
Argentina offered soybean farmers an exchange rate of 1 dollar to 200 pesos (the official exchange rate is 140 pesos) from September 5 to 30, prompting farmers to sell soybeans
.
significantly after entering October.
Argentine farmers sold just 55,000 mt of soybeans in the week ended Oct.
12, down from 376,000 mt the week before and 1.
787 million mt
in the week ended Sept.
28.
Argentina offered soybean farmers an exchange rate of 1 dollar to 200 pesos (the official exchange rate is 140 pesos) from September 5 to 30, prompting farmers to sell soybeans
.
Argentine soybean planting will begin
in a few weeks.
Both the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange expect Argentina's 2022/23 soybean production to be 48 million mt and the USDA forecast to be 51 million mt
.
in a few weeks.
Both the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange expect Argentina's 2022/23 soybean production to be 48 million mt and the USDA forecast to be 51 million mt
.
Canadian canola exports accelerated
Canada's canola harvest is nearing completion and demand is buoyant
.
Canola exports stood at 407,300 mt in the week ended Oct.
16, up from 210,000 mt a week earlier,
according to the Canadian Grain Council.
Year-to-date exports in 2022/23 totalled 1.
137 million mt, down just 2.
7% from a year earlier, compared with a year-on-year decline of 25.
8%
a week ago.
Domestic consumption was 246,600 tons that week, up from 150,000 tons
a week ago.
Domestic consumption so far in 2022/23 was 1.
93 million tonnes, down only 2.
5%
year-on-year.
This reflects exceptionally high canola crush margins in Canada, with processing plants maintaining high operating rates to meet market demand
.
However, the pace of delivery by farmers has slowed
down.
As of Oct.
16, farmers were delivering 430,000 tonnes, down from 610,000 tonnes
a week earlier.
.
Canola exports stood at 407,300 mt in the week ended Oct.
16, up from 210,000 mt a week earlier,
according to the Canadian Grain Council.
Year-to-date exports in 2022/23 totalled 1.
137 million mt, down just 2.
7% from a year earlier, compared with a year-on-year decline of 25.
8%
a week ago.
Domestic consumption was 246,600 tons that week, up from 150,000 tons
a week ago.
Domestic consumption so far in 2022/23 was 1.
93 million tonnes, down only 2.
5%
year-on-year.
This reflects exceptionally high canola crush margins in Canada, with processing plants maintaining high operating rates to meet market demand
.
However, the pace of delivery by farmers has slowed
down.
As of Oct.
16, farmers were delivering 430,000 tonnes, down from 610,000 tonnes
a week earlier.
