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S.
soybeans
.
A surge in Chicago soybean oil also supported oilseed prices
.
May 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around 1,603.
50 cents per bush on Friday, up 17.
25 cents, or 1.
09%, from a week ago
.
U.
S.
Gulf No.
1 soybean spot prices averaged $16.
945 a bushel ($622.
6 a tonne), down 1 cent from last week
.
May 2022 rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange closed at around 703.
75 euros/ton, up 12.
25 euros or 1.
8% from a week ago
.
The May rapeseed futures of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at about C$1,012.
10/ton, up C$11.
50 or 1.
15% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Upper River soybeans was US$653 (including 33% export tax), which was higher than that of the previous week.
It was up $8 or 1.
24% a week ago
.
March 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 6,094 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan or 3.
9% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 96.
11, up 0.
1% from a week earlier
.
50 cents per bush on Friday, up 17.
25 cents, or 1.
09%, from a week ago
.
U.
S.
Gulf No.
1 soybean spot prices averaged $16.
945 a bushel ($622.
6 a tonne), down 1 cent from last week
.
May 2022 rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange closed at around 703.
75 euros/ton, up 12.
25 euros or 1.
8% from a week ago
.
The May rapeseed futures of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at about C$1,012.
10/ton, up C$11.
50 or 1.
15% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentine Upper River soybeans was US$653 (including 33% export tax), which was higher than that of the previous week.
It was up $8 or 1.
24% a week ago
.
March 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 6,094 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan or 3.
9% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 96.
11, up 0.
1% from a week earlier
.
South American soybean production forecast continues to decline
Since the end of January, due to the hot and dry weather, analysts have lowered Brazil's soybean output to below 130 million tons, and some institutions have even lowered production to 122 million tons, far below the initial forecast of 140 million tons at the beginning of the year.
record high
.
Soybean planting in Brazil in October last year went well, raising optimistic expectations for production
.
But since December, hot and dry weather has ravaged southern Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, resulting in damage to soybean yields
.
In Brazil, several analysts forecast Brazil's soybean production to be less than 130 million tons; in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) recently lowered Argentina's soybean production by 2 million tons to 42 million tons
.
Rainfall over the next few weeks will be critical as the soybean crop enters an important growing season
.
In Paraguay, the country's agriculture minister expects soybean production to be half what it was last year, and the country's industry associations expect even less
.
record high
.
Soybean planting in Brazil in October last year went well, raising optimistic expectations for production
.
But since December, hot and dry weather has ravaged southern Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, resulting in damage to soybean yields
.
In Brazil, several analysts forecast Brazil's soybean production to be less than 130 million tons; in Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) recently lowered Argentina's soybean production by 2 million tons to 42 million tons
.
Rainfall over the next few weeks will be critical as the soybean crop enters an important growing season
.
In Paraguay, the country's agriculture minister expects soybean production to be half what it was last year, and the country's industry associations expect even less
.
Chinese oil mills cancel orders for Brazilian soybeans
In Brazil, since the end of January, some branches have significantly lowered their forecasts for Brazilian soybean production, and the Brazilian soybean premium and Chicago soybean futures have also risen
.
As the price of Brazilian soybeans soared, some Chinese oil mills are said to have ordered at least 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans because of high import costs, and the decline in domestic pork prices has weakened the demand for soybean meal in the breeding industry, resulting in meager soybean crush profits or even a loss of US$20.
/t
.
In this case, the buyer's return on closing the hedge buy order far exceeds the liquidated damages
.
.
As the price of Brazilian soybeans soared, some Chinese oil mills are said to have ordered at least 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans because of high import costs, and the decline in domestic pork prices has weakened the demand for soybean meal in the breeding industry, resulting in meager soybean crush profits or even a loss of US$20.
/t
.
In this case, the buyer's return on closing the hedge buy order far exceeds the liquidated damages
.
Oil mills shut down due to low inventories, awaiting government auction of soybeans
Industry sources said on Friday that some soybean crushing plants from southern China to northern China are shutting down or are planning to stop production as a decline in domestic soybean crushing profits has seriously affected China's soybean buying interest, leading to a shortage of soybean stocks at some oil mills
.
Bunge's Tianjin crushing plant will be shut down for 49 days between February 14 and April 3, the sources said
.
The company's crushing plant in Nanjing will also shut down for nearly a month from the end of February to March
.
Louis Dreyfuss (LDC)'s plant in Tianjin and Cargill's plant in Hebei province will cease operations from next week
.
Many crushing plants in Guangxi also plan to suspend production in March, because it is said that there are only two oil plants in the area that have beans to be crushed, and other oil plants have no stocks
.
The market may be waiting for the government to release soybean reserves to ease supply constraints, traders said
.
In recent days, it has been rumored that the Grain Reserve Group will sell soybeans from its reserves to meet demand from March to May, and the rumored release of soybean stocks is as high as 5 million tons
.
.
Bunge's Tianjin crushing plant will be shut down for 49 days between February 14 and April 3, the sources said
.
The company's crushing plant in Nanjing will also shut down for nearly a month from the end of February to March
.
Louis Dreyfuss (LDC)'s plant in Tianjin and Cargill's plant in Hebei province will cease operations from next week
.
Many crushing plants in Guangxi also plan to suspend production in March, because it is said that there are only two oil plants in the area that have beans to be crushed, and other oil plants have no stocks
.
The market may be waiting for the government to release soybean reserves to ease supply constraints, traders said
.
In recent days, it has been rumored that the Grain Reserve Group will sell soybeans from its reserves to meet demand from March to May, and the rumored release of soybean stocks is as high as 5 million tons
.
China's Soybean Imports Accelerate Recently
Purchases of U.
S.
soybeans by Chinese buyers have picked up pace in recent weeks
.
From Jan.
28 to Feb.
18, U.
S.
exporters reported sales of a combined 3.
4 million tons of soybeans to China and to unknown destinations (often thought to also be selling to China), according to one-day export sales data released by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture
.
Among them, 1.
029 million tons of soybeans were sold to China, of which 66,000 tons were delivered in 2021/22 and the remaining 2022/23; in addition, 2,371,200 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, of which 607,000 tons were delivered in 2022/23, and the remainder was Delivery 2021/22
.
Chinese buyers have been aggressively buying U.
S.
soybeans recently, mainly because of sharply lower South American soybean production forecasts
.
S.
soybeans by Chinese buyers have picked up pace in recent weeks
.
From Jan.
28 to Feb.
18, U.
S.
exporters reported sales of a combined 3.
4 million tons of soybeans to China and to unknown destinations (often thought to also be selling to China), according to one-day export sales data released by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture
.
Among them, 1.
029 million tons of soybeans were sold to China, of which 66,000 tons were delivered in 2021/22 and the remaining 2022/23; in addition, 2,371,200 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations, of which 607,000 tons were delivered in 2022/23, and the remainder was Delivery 2021/22
.
Chinese buyers have been aggressively buying U.
S.
soybeans recently, mainly because of sharply lower South American soybean production forecasts
.
Long-term demand outlook for Chinese soybeans could reverse
On February 16, Chinese state media quoted an official from the Ministry of Agriculture as saying that China could reduce its soybean import demand by 30 million tons by reducing the amount of soybean meal used for feed
.
The trade war since 2018 and the COVID-19 outbreak since 2020 have highlighted geopolitical risks and bottlenecks in the global supply chain, prompting China’s policy to shift to increasing domestic oilseed production and reducing import dependence
.
On December 27, 2012, the National Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau Director's Meeting emphasized that increasing the output of soybeans and other oil crops is a major political task that must be completed in 2022
.
Last week, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture also lowered China's soybean import demand for 2021/22 to 97 million tons, lower than the 100 million tons forecast in January.
Because of the decline in crushing profits or even losses, the pace of soybean crushing has slowed down, which also makes 2021.
China's soybean imports slowed from October to January 2022
.
.
The trade war since 2018 and the COVID-19 outbreak since 2020 have highlighted geopolitical risks and bottlenecks in the global supply chain, prompting China’s policy to shift to increasing domestic oilseed production and reducing import dependence
.
On December 27, 2012, the National Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau Director's Meeting emphasized that increasing the output of soybeans and other oil crops is a major political task that must be completed in 2022
.
Last week, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture also lowered China's soybean import demand for 2021/22 to 97 million tons, lower than the 100 million tons forecast in January.
Because of the decline in crushing profits or even losses, the pace of soybean crushing has slowed down, which also makes 2021.
China's soybean imports slowed from October to January 2022
.
Upbeat outlook for U.
S.
soybean oil exports lifts prices to 14-year high
S.
soybean oil exports lifts prices to 14-year high
Chicago soybean oil futures hit a 14-year high this week
.
After a 33.
3% gain in 2021, it is up another 20% so far this year
.
International crude oil futures hit a new high in more than seven years at the beginning of the week, approaching US$100 a barrel, as global crude oil demand grew, while production capacity constraints in oil-producing countries caused supply to fail to keep up with demand growth; Malaysian palm oil production was constrained by chronic labor shortages.
The recent palm oil contract reached MYR6,000/ton for the first time in history; top exporter Indonesia recently introduced a policy to restrict palm oil exports; major sunflower oil exporter Ukraine faces geopolitical risks and exports may be disrupted; hot weather in the world's top soybean oil exporter Drying results in impaired soybean yields
.
In addition, the Biden administration in the United States may reduce the mandatory blending requirements for biofuels, which means a corresponding increase in the supply of soybean oil available for export
.
The combination of these factors has boosted global buyer demand for U.
S.
soybean oil
.
Reports on Friday said India had purchased 100,000 tonnes of U.
S.
soybean oil
.
.
After a 33.
3% gain in 2021, it is up another 20% so far this year
.
International crude oil futures hit a new high in more than seven years at the beginning of the week, approaching US$100 a barrel, as global crude oil demand grew, while production capacity constraints in oil-producing countries caused supply to fail to keep up with demand growth; Malaysian palm oil production was constrained by chronic labor shortages.
The recent palm oil contract reached MYR6,000/ton for the first time in history; top exporter Indonesia recently introduced a policy to restrict palm oil exports; major sunflower oil exporter Ukraine faces geopolitical risks and exports may be disrupted; hot weather in the world's top soybean oil exporter Drying results in impaired soybean yields
.
In addition, the Biden administration in the United States may reduce the mandatory blending requirements for biofuels, which means a corresponding increase in the supply of soybean oil available for export
.
The combination of these factors has boosted global buyer demand for U.
S.
soybean oil
.
Reports on Friday said India had purchased 100,000 tonnes of U.
S.
soybean oil
.
The week ahead to focus on USDA's annual outlook data
Next Monday (February 21) is a federal holiday in the United States, and the Chicago futures market will be closed for one day
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release forecast data on the supply and demand balance for soybeans for 2022/23 at its annual outlook forum on Thursday (Feb.
24)
.
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release forecast data on the supply and demand balance for soybeans for 2022/23 at its annual outlook forum on Thursday (Feb.
24)
.
