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The market continued to pay close attention to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the progress of peace talks, which kept the market fluctuating at a high level; the Fed started a cycle of interest rate hikes to curb high inflation, which may lead to weakened liquidity in the financial market; the reduction of soybean production in South America supported the demand for soybeans in the United States
.
May 2022 soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $16.
68 a bushel on Friday, down 8 cents, or 0.
48%, from a week earlier
.
U.
S.
Gulf No.
1 yellow soybeans were quoted at $17.
99 a bushel, down 3 cents, or 0.
17%, from last week
.
May rapeseed futures settled at around €937.
75/ton on the Euronext exchange, up €33 or 3.
6% from a week earlier
.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) May rapeseed closed at 1124.
80 Canadian dollars / ton, down 6.
4 Canadian dollars or 0.
6% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentina's upper river soybeans was 694 US dollars (including 33% export tax), compared with a week ago.
Down $13 or 1.
84%
.
The July 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 6,271 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 98.
23 on Friday, down 0.
9% from a week earlier
.
68 a bushel on Friday, down 8 cents, or 0.
48%, from a week earlier
.
U.
S.
Gulf No.
1 yellow soybeans were quoted at $17.
99 a bushel, down 3 cents, or 0.
17%, from last week
.
May rapeseed futures settled at around €937.
75/ton on the Euronext exchange, up €33 or 3.
6% from a week earlier
.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) May rapeseed closed at 1124.
80 Canadian dollars / ton, down 6.
4 Canadian dollars or 0.
6% from a week ago; the FOB spot price of Argentina's upper river soybeans was 694 US dollars (including 33% export tax), compared with a week ago.
Down $13 or 1.
84%
.
The July 2022 soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 6,271 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1.
2% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 98.
23 on Friday, down 0.
9% from a week earlier
.
International geopolitical tensions continue
Signs of progress in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week boosted global stock markets, while commodities including energy, metals, grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils fell sharply as risk premiums narrowed.
.
But on March 17 Russia said it had not yet reached an agreement
.
Western officials say the two sides remain far apart
.
On March 18, Russia's top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said that some progress had been made in the talks, and the two sides were closer on the issue of Ukraine's neutrality, but on the issue of Ukraine's demilitarization, the two sides were only halfway there.
common ground
.
.
But on March 17 Russia said it had not yet reached an agreement
.
Western officials say the two sides remain far apart
.
On March 18, Russia's top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said that some progress had been made in the talks, and the two sides were closer on the issue of Ukraine's neutrality, but on the issue of Ukraine's demilitarization, the two sides were only halfway there.
common ground
.
On Saturday, March 19, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov defined Russia's negotiating demands as "absolute minimum demands", which included Ukraine's formal declaration of neutrality and never joining NATO
.
And suggesting that the Ukrainian delegation was likely to be led by the nose of the Americans, he said the Americans would not allow Kiev to agree to Moscow's demands
.
.
And suggesting that the Ukrainian delegation was likely to be led by the nose of the Americans, he said the Americans would not allow Kiev to agree to Moscow's demands
.
On the morning of March 20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with CNN that he is willing to consider some concessions to Russia to end the conflict, including Ukraine's neutrality, but it needs to be based on strong security guarantees
.
He also threatened that a conflict between the two countries could lead to a "third world war" if any attempt to negotiate fails
.
On March 20, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said the two sides were closer to reaching an agreement on key issues
.
.
He also threatened that a conflict between the two countries could lead to a "third world war" if any attempt to negotiate fails
.
On March 20, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said the two sides were closer to reaching an agreement on key issues
.
Fed starts rate hike cycle
On Wednesday (March 16), the Federal Reserve raised the federal benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, the first rate hike since 2018, marking the end of the ultra-easy monetary policy implemented by the U.
S.
central bank during the epidemic
.
The Fed also said it plans to raise interest rates to restrictive levels next year to combat persistent inflation
.
Most Fed policymakers now see the U.
S.
federal funds rate rising to between 1.
75% and 2% by the end of 2022, meaning the Fed will raise rates by a quarter of each of the remaining six policy meetings this year percent
.
Fed officials expect interest rates to climb to 2.
8% next year, which could slow U.
S.
economic growth
.
The Fed also said it would begin quantitative tightening, which would reduce its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, at its upcoming meeting
.
During the epidemic, the Federal Reserve implemented an extremely loose monetary policy, purchasing $120 billion in Treasuries and MBS per month
.
S.
central bank during the epidemic
.
The Fed also said it plans to raise interest rates to restrictive levels next year to combat persistent inflation
.
Most Fed policymakers now see the U.
S.
federal funds rate rising to between 1.
75% and 2% by the end of 2022, meaning the Fed will raise rates by a quarter of each of the remaining six policy meetings this year percent
.
Fed officials expect interest rates to climb to 2.
8% next year, which could slow U.
S.
economic growth
.
The Fed also said it would begin quantitative tightening, which would reduce its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, at its upcoming meeting
.
During the epidemic, the Federal Reserve implemented an extremely loose monetary policy, purchasing $120 billion in Treasuries and MBS per month
.
A Fed rate hike is typically bearish for commodity markets, as it leads to a squeeze in financial market liquidity
.
Some market institutions believe that the Fed's more aggressive interest rate hike stance could put the U.
S.
economy at risk of slipping into recession
.
However, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Ryder believes that it will take an average of about three years from the Fed's first rate hike before the U.
S.
economy slips into recession
.
.
Some market institutions believe that the Fed's more aggressive interest rate hike stance could put the U.
S.
economy at risk of slipping into recession
.
However, Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Ryder believes that it will take an average of about three years from the Fed's first rate hike before the U.
S.
economy slips into recession
.
Argentina suspends soybean oil and soybean meal exports
The Argentine government, the world's top exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil, said it is suspending export registrations for soybean oil and soybean meal until further notice
.
This means that sales and exports of the 2021/22 crop will come to a standstill
.
However, the new soybean harvest will not start until several weeks later, so the export of the new soybean meal and soybean oil has not actually started
.
Argentina is
.
Argentina has so far registered exports of about 5 million tonnes of soybean oil and other manufactured products in 2021/22, government data show
.
The Argentine Grain Exporters and Processors Chamber (CIARA-CEC) said that the government stopped the export registration in order to increase export tariffs by two points
.
This will hurt the interests of Argentine exporters and will also affect foreign exchange earnings and employment in the agricultural industry chain
.
Argentina currently imposes a 31% export tax on soybean oil and soybean meal
.
Analysts said the new tax rate could reach 33 percent, which is also the rate currently charged on soybeans
.
.
This means that sales and exports of the 2021/22 crop will come to a standstill
.
However, the new soybean harvest will not start until several weeks later, so the export of the new soybean meal and soybean oil has not actually started
.
Argentina is
.
Argentina has so far registered exports of about 5 million tonnes of soybean oil and other manufactured products in 2021/22, government data show
.
The Argentine Grain Exporters and Processors Chamber (CIARA-CEC) said that the government stopped the export registration in order to increase export tariffs by two points
.
This will hurt the interests of Argentine exporters and will also affect foreign exchange earnings and employment in the agricultural industry chain
.
Argentina currently imposes a 31% export tax on soybean oil and soybean meal
.
Analysts said the new tax rate could reach 33 percent, which is also the rate currently charged on soybeans
.
Shrinking South American soybean production supports U.
S.
soybean export demand
S.
soybean export demand
This week, some analysts continued to lower their forecasts for soybean production in South America.
Among them, consulting firm AgroConsult lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil in 2021/2022 to 124.
6 million tons on Thursday, a year-on-year decrease of 10.
6%
.
The lower production is due to severe drought in southern Brazil, including the main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where average yields fell by 38.
7% and 56.
2% respectively
.
Soybean premiums at Brazilian ports remain high, reflecting farmers' reluctance to sell
.
It also prompted soybean importers to continue buying U.
S.
soybeans
.
Among them, consulting firm AgroConsult lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil in 2021/2022 to 124.
6 million tons on Thursday, a year-on-year decrease of 10.
6%
.
The lower production is due to severe drought in southern Brazil, including the main producing states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, where average yields fell by 38.
7% and 56.
2% respectively
.
Soybean premiums at Brazilian ports remain high, reflecting farmers' reluctance to sell
.
It also prompted soybean importers to continue buying U.
S.
soybeans
.
U.
S.
Agriculture Counselor sees record Chinese soybean imports in 2022/23
S.
Agriculture Counselor sees record Chinese soybean imports in 2022/23
According to the 2022/23 (October-September) China Oilseed Outlook Report released by the U.
S.
Agriculture Counselor on March 17, China's oilseed consumption is expected to be 166.
7 million tons (163.
5 million tons, in brackets 2021/ 22), oilseed imports are expected to be 104.
1 million tons (9,840 tons); domestic oilseed production is expected to be 62.
4 million tons (61 million tons)
.
Imported oilseeds are expected to account for 62 percent of total domestic consumption in 2022/23, slightly higher than the previous year's share, the report said
.
Brazil, the US, Argentina and Canada will account for 96% of China's oilseed imports in 22/23
.
In addition, the U.
S.
Counselor predicts that China will import a record 100 million tons of soybeans in 2022/23, up from 95 million tons in 2021/22, as China's growing feed demand, limited supply of protein replacement and rising prices will help in pushing China's soybean imports to a record level next year
.
S.
Agriculture Counselor on March 17, China's oilseed consumption is expected to be 166.
7 million tons (163.
5 million tons, in brackets 2021/ 22), oilseed imports are expected to be 104.
1 million tons (9,840 tons); domestic oilseed production is expected to be 62.
4 million tons (61 million tons)
.
Imported oilseeds are expected to account for 62 percent of total domestic consumption in 2022/23, slightly higher than the previous year's share, the report said
.
Brazil, the US, Argentina and Canada will account for 96% of China's oilseed imports in 22/23
.
In addition, the U.
S.
Counselor predicts that China will import a record 100 million tons of soybeans in 2022/23, up from 95 million tons in 2021/22, as China's growing feed demand, limited supply of protein replacement and rising prices will help in pushing China's soybean imports to a record level next year
.
Weak weekly export data, Chinese buyers slow down purchases
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
soybean sales for 2021/22 were 1.
25 million tons in the week ended March 10, 43% lower than last week and 11% lower than the four-week average
.
Net sales in 2022/23 were 477,000 tonnes, down from 895,000 tonnes a week earlier
.
The report also showed that the U.
S.
sold about 800,000 tons of soybeans to China (mainland) in the week ended March 10, of which 396,000 tons were for delivery in 2021/22 and 406,000 tons were for delivery in 2022/23
.
For comparison, the U.
S.
sold about 1.
89 million tons of soybeans to China the previous week, with 1.
096 million tons for delivery in 2021/22 and 797,000 tons for delivery in 2022/23
.
Notably, the U.
S.
has reported no single-day soybean export sales to China or to unknown destinations over the past week
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
soybean sales for 2021/22 were 1.
25 million tons in the week ended March 10, 43% lower than last week and 11% lower than the four-week average
.
Net sales in 2022/23 were 477,000 tonnes, down from 895,000 tonnes a week earlier
.
The report also showed that the U.
S.
sold about 800,000 tons of soybeans to China (mainland) in the week ended March 10, of which 396,000 tons were for delivery in 2021/22 and 406,000 tons were for delivery in 2022/23
.
For comparison, the U.
S.
sold about 1.
89 million tons of soybeans to China the previous week, with 1.
096 million tons for delivery in 2021/22 and 797,000 tons for delivery in 2022/23
.
Notably, the U.
S.
has reported no single-day soybean export sales to China or to unknown destinations over the past week
.
Worrying outlook for sunflower seeds in Ukraine
Ukraine and Russia are the world's first and second largest producers of sunflower seeds and sunflower oil, Russia is the world's number one sunflower seed exporter, and Ukraine is the number one sunflower oil exporter
.
Both countries will begin spring sunflower seed planting next month
.
But the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is worrying about planting prospects, as Ukrainian farmers have difficulty buying seeds, fuel, fertilizers and agricultural machinery, and labor is also scarce
.
Western sanctions on Russia may also affect the financing and agricultural sales prospects of Russian farmers
.
.
Both countries will begin spring sunflower seed planting next month
.
But the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is worrying about planting prospects, as Ukrainian farmers have difficulty buying seeds, fuel, fertilizers and agricultural machinery, and labor is also scarce
.
Western sanctions on Russia may also affect the financing and agricultural sales prospects of Russian farmers
.
Consultancy APK-Inform predicts that in 2022, the sunflower seed planting area in Ukraine may fall to 4.
2 to 4.
4 million hectares, a decrease of 35% year-on-year and the lowest level in 13 years
.
The company's preliminary estimate is that Ukraine's sunflower seed production in 2022 may be less than 10 million tons
.
The decline in soybean acreage may be less pronounced because the main soybean producing areas are located in the central and western regions
.
The company expects Ukraine to plant 1.
2 million hectares of soybeans in 2022, down 11 percent from a year earlier
.
The outlook for rapeseed production could be even worse
.
Although farmers have planted 1.
4 million hectares of rapeseed, the highest in 12 years
.
But about half of rapeseed arable land is located in conflict zones, so the proportion of crop losses can be high
.
2 to 4.
4 million hectares, a decrease of 35% year-on-year and the lowest level in 13 years
.
The company's preliminary estimate is that Ukraine's sunflower seed production in 2022 may be less than 10 million tons
.
The decline in soybean acreage may be less pronounced because the main soybean producing areas are located in the central and western regions
.
The company expects Ukraine to plant 1.
2 million hectares of soybeans in 2022, down 11 percent from a year earlier
.
The outlook for rapeseed production could be even worse
.
Although farmers have planted 1.
4 million hectares of rapeseed, the highest in 12 years
.
But about half of rapeseed arable land is located in conflict zones, so the proportion of crop losses can be high
.
IGC lowers global soybean ending stocks
The IGC report released this week showed that global soybean production in 2021/22 was lowered to 350 million tons, down 3 million tons from the previous month
.
Soybean consumption was lowered to 362 million tons from 363 million tons
.
Soybean trade was revised down to 159 million from 161 million
.
Soybean ending stocks were lowered to 42 million from 43 million
.
.
Soybean consumption was lowered to 362 million tons from 363 million tons
.
Soybean trade was revised down to 159 million from 161 million
.
Soybean ending stocks were lowered to 42 million from 43 million
.
Follow Spring Sowing
As the spring planting season approaches, the market is increasingly concerned about the prospect of spring planting in the northern hemisphere
.
The 90-day weather forecast issued by the US NOAA showed above-normal temperatures in most of the US Midwest
.
.
The 90-day weather forecast issued by the US NOAA showed above-normal temperatures in most of the US Midwest
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release a survey on spring planting intentions in 2022 at the end of this month
.
According to a survey report by Allendale, the U.
S.
soybean planting area is expected to be 89.
281 million acres in 2022, and the corn planting area is expected to be 92.
421 million acres
.
For comparison, the USDA forecast at the Annual Outlook Forum in February that the U.
S.
acreage was 88 million acres for soybeans and 92 million acres for corn
.
The 2021 U.
S.
soybean acreage is 87.
195 million acres and corn acreage is 93.
357 million acres
.
The USDA said last month that high soybean prices could help encourage more acreage, while higher production costs such as fertilizers would limit corn acreage
.
S.
Department of Agriculture will release a survey on spring planting intentions in 2022 at the end of this month
.
According to a survey report by Allendale, the U.
S.
soybean planting area is expected to be 89.
281 million acres in 2022, and the corn planting area is expected to be 92.
421 million acres
.
For comparison, the USDA forecast at the Annual Outlook Forum in February that the U.
S.
acreage was 88 million acres for soybeans and 92 million acres for corn
.
The 2021 U.
S.
soybean acreage is 87.
195 million acres and corn acreage is 93.
357 million acres
.
The USDA said last month that high soybean prices could help encourage more acreage, while higher production costs such as fertilizers would limit corn acreage
.
