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S.
soybean prices rising, mainly due to lower production expectations for Argentina and the United States
.
International crude oil futures rose and the dollar fell, also supporting
U.
S.
soybean futures.
However, Brazil's soybean harvest is about to accelerate, and China's soybean import outlook has deteriorated, limiting the upward momentum
of the oilseed market.
The appreciation of the euro and Canadian dollar weighed on European and Canadian canola prices
.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March 2023 soybean futures closed at about $15.
2775/bu on Friday, up 2.
4%
from a week ago.
The average spot quotation for the January shipment of No.
1 yellow soybeans in the US Gulf was $6.
64 per bushel ($611.
4 per tonne), up 2.
27 percent
from a week ago 。 CBOT's March soybean meal was at $476.
30 per short tonne, down 0.
3% from a week ago; March soybean oil futures closed at 63.
06 cents a pound, down 0.
2% from a week ago; Euronext May rapeseed futures closed at about 570.
75 euros/mt, down 2.
1% from a week ago; ICE closed at C$840/mt for March rapeseed, down 3.
3% from a week ago; Argentina's upper river soybean FOB spot quotation was $626 per tonne (including 33% export tax), up 2.
3%
from a week ago.
2775/bu on Friday, up 2.
4%
from a week ago.
The average spot quotation for the January shipment of No.
1 yellow soybeans in the US Gulf was $6.
64 per bushel ($611.
4 per tonne), up 2.
27 percent
from a week ago 。 CBOT's March soybean meal was at $476.
30 per short tonne, down 0.
3% from a week ago; March soybean oil futures closed at 63.
06 cents a pound, down 0.
2% from a week ago; Euronext May rapeseed futures closed at about 570.
75 euros/mt, down 2.
1% from a week ago; ICE closed at C$840/mt for March rapeseed, down 3.
3% from a week ago; Argentina's upper river soybean FOB spot quotation was $626 per tonne (including 33% export tax), up 2.
3%
from a week ago.
Drought in Argentina has led to a significant downward revision in soybean production
This year, Argentina's agricultural regions suffered the worst drought in 60 years, leaving many farmers unable to complete soybean planting, and several agencies have recently lowered their soybean production forecasts, which has been the main catalyst
for higher soybean prices.
The Rosario Grain Exchange fired the first shot of cutting Argentina's soybean production on Wednesday, lowering it to 37 million tonnes, 12 million tonnes lower than earlier estimates, and the next day the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered Argentina's soybean production by 7 million tonnes to an estimated 41 million tonnes
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture this month lowered Argentina's soybean production by 4 million mt to 45.
5 million mt from 49.
5 million mt, but still up from 43.
9 million mt
last year.
for higher soybean prices.
The Rosario Grain Exchange fired the first shot of cutting Argentina's soybean production on Wednesday, lowering it to 37 million tonnes, 12 million tonnes lower than earlier estimates, and the next day the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered Argentina's soybean production by 7 million tonnes to an estimated 41 million tonnes
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture this month lowered Argentina's soybean production by 4 million mt to 45.
5 million mt from 49.
5 million mt, but still up from 43.
9 million mt
last year.
The Buenos Aires grain exchange said the drought that has dried up Argentina's fields and reduced yields of staple crops could end in the coming months, though it may not fully return to normal until rains and soil moisture in March
.
After three consecutive years of La Niña, Argentina spent much of the year driing, halving wheat production and hitting soybean and corn plantings and crop growth
.
In its monthly climate report, the exchange said precipitation will pick up in the coming months, helping to improve soil moisture reserves and cushion the effects of
hot weather.
But the process will be slow
.
Only by the end of March will the soil in most agricultural areas replenish its water reserves
.
.
After three consecutive years of La Niña, Argentina spent much of the year driing, halving wheat production and hitting soybean and corn plantings and crop growth
.
In its monthly climate report, the exchange said precipitation will pick up in the coming months, helping to improve soil moisture reserves and cushion the effects of
hot weather.
But the process will be slow
.
Only by the end of March will the soil in most agricultural areas replenish its water reserves
.
South American soybean production increased year-on-year, driven by increased production in Brazil
It should be noted that even if Argentina's soybean production is significantly reduced, South American soybean production this year is generally very large, significantly higher than the previous year, mainly because Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase by 23.
5 million tons year-on-year, and Paraguay production is expected to increase by 5.
8 million tons year-on-year, which more than offset the impact of
lower production in Argentina and the United States.
In addition, the USDA raised China's soybean production by 1.
9 million tons to 20.
3 million tons
, based on official production data from China's National Bureau of Statistics.
With the South American soybean harvest coming to market in the coming months, it will weigh on
soybean prices.
5 million tons year-on-year, and Paraguay production is expected to increase by 5.
8 million tons year-on-year, which more than offset the impact of
lower production in Argentina and the United States.
In addition, the USDA raised China's soybean production by 1.
9 million tons to 20.
3 million tons
, based on official production data from China's National Bureau of Statistics.
With the South American soybean harvest coming to market in the coming months, it will weigh on
soybean prices.
In its January supply and demand report, the USDA forecast Brazil's soybean production in 2022/23 was 153 million mt, up 1 million mt from last month's forecast, and USDA also raised Brazilian aged soybean production by 2.
5 million mt, from 127 million mt to 129.
5 million mt, and its 2022/23 stockpile was also raised by 3 million mt
.
5 million mt, from 127 million mt to 129.
5 million mt, and its 2022/23 stockpile was also raised by 3 million mt
.
This week, the Brazilian government and private sector lowered their soybean production forecasts, generally around a few hundred thousand tonnes, and the revised output remained at a record level of more than 150 million tons
.
Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) on Thursday forecast Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 to reach 152.
7 million mt, about 800,000 mt lower than in December, mainly due to uneven
rainfall distribution in Rio Grande do Sul.
If the latest production forecast is confirmed, it will still be a record level, up 21.
6%
from the previous year.
The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) on Thursday forecast Brazilian soybean production of 152.
6 million mt in 2023, down from a previous forecast of 153.
5 million mt but still at a record high
.
ABIOVE EXPECTS SOYBEAN EXPORTS TO REACH A RECORD 92 MILLION MT IN 2023, UP 16.
6% FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 93 MILLION
MT.
Total soybean crush is expected to reach a record 52.
5 million mt this year, up from 50.
4 million mt in 2022.
Chicago AgResource Brasil expects Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 to reach 152.
96 million mt, slightly down 0.
39% from its earlier estimate, due to erratic rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, although the latest production forecast will remain an all-time
high.
.
Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) on Thursday forecast Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 to reach 152.
7 million mt, about 800,000 mt lower than in December, mainly due to uneven
rainfall distribution in Rio Grande do Sul.
If the latest production forecast is confirmed, it will still be a record level, up 21.
6%
from the previous year.
The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) on Thursday forecast Brazilian soybean production of 152.
6 million mt in 2023, down from a previous forecast of 153.
5 million mt but still at a record high
.
ABIOVE EXPECTS SOYBEAN EXPORTS TO REACH A RECORD 92 MILLION MT IN 2023, UP 16.
6% FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 93 MILLION
MT.
Total soybean crush is expected to reach a record 52.
5 million mt this year, up from 50.
4 million mt in 2022.
Chicago AgResource Brasil expects Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 to reach 152.
96 million mt, slightly down 0.
39% from its earlier estimate, due to erratic rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, although the latest production forecast will remain an all-time
high.
U.
S.
soybean production cut by 70 million bushels, exports lowered by 55 million bushels January supply and demand reports usually have a big impact on the market, as the report includes the USDA's final estimate of soybean production
.
To everyone's surprise, the USDA sharply lowered U.
S.
soybean production by 70 million bushels or 1.
6% this month, to 4.
276 billion bushels from its December forecast of 4.
346 billion bushels, down 4.
2%
from 4.
465 billion bushels in 2021/22.
The downward revision was mainly due to the decline in average yields from 50.
2 bushels per acre to 49.
5 bushels, down from 51.
7 bushels per acre
the previous year.
The harvest area was revised down to 86.
3 million acres, 300,000 acres lower than last month and unchanged
from the previous year.
S.
soybean production cut by 70 million bushels, exports lowered by 55 million bushels January supply and demand reports usually have a big impact on the market, as the report includes the USDA's final estimate of soybean production
.
To everyone's surprise, the USDA sharply lowered U.
S.
soybean production by 70 million bushels or 1.
6% this month, to 4.
276 billion bushels from its December forecast of 4.
346 billion bushels, down 4.
2%
from 4.
465 billion bushels in 2021/22.
The downward revision was mainly due to the decline in average yields from 50.
2 bushels per acre to 49.
5 bushels, down from 51.
7 bushels per acre
the previous year.
The harvest area was revised down to 86.
3 million acres, 300,000 acres lower than last month and unchanged
from the previous year.
On the same day, the USDA's quarterly inventory report showed that U.
S.
soybean stocks on December 1 were 3.
022 billion bushels, down 114 million bushels from last year and 123 million bushels
lower than the industry average.
S.
soybean stocks on December 1 were 3.
022 billion bushels, down 114 million bushels from last year and 123 million bushels
lower than the industry average.
As supplies dwindled, the USDA lowered U.
S.
soybean exports to 1.
990 billion bushels, down from 2.
045 billion bushels forecast last month and down 7.
8 percent
from 2.
158 billion bushels last year.
Crushing remained unchanged at 2.
245 billion bushels, up from 2.
204 billion bushels
the previous year.
Ending stocks were lowered by 10 million bushels to 210 million bushels from 220 million bushels forecast last month, down from 274 million bushels
in the previous year.
The average price of soybean farms in the United States in 2022/23 was revised up by $
0.
2.
S.
soybean exports to 1.
990 billion bushels, down from 2.
045 billion bushels forecast last month and down 7.
8 percent
from 2.
158 billion bushels last year.
Crushing remained unchanged at 2.
245 billion bushels, up from 2.
204 billion bushels
the previous year.
Ending stocks were lowered by 10 million bushels to 210 million bushels from 220 million bushels forecast last month, down from 274 million bushels
in the previous year.
The average price of soybean farms in the United States in 2022/23 was revised up by $
0.
2.
La Niña weather is coming to an end, when is El Niño weather?
As La Niña weather comes to an end, whether it will turn to La Niña weather later this year is also worth watching closely for investors
.
If El Niño weather arrives this summer (June-July), it will help improve rainfall in the U.
S.
planting belt and increase the potential for soybean
yields.
.
If El Niño weather arrives this summer (June-July), it will help improve rainfall in the U.
S.
planting belt and increase the potential for soybean
yields.
Over the past few weeks, U.
S.
drought monitoring reports have shown a significant contraction
in U.
S.
drought levels.
As of January 10, 2023, the Midwest accounted for more than 50% of drought-free regions, for the first time
since the end of September last year.
S.
drought monitoring reports have shown a significant contraction
in U.
S.
drought levels.
As of January 10, 2023, the Midwest accounted for more than 50% of drought-free regions, for the first time
since the end of September last year.
China's imports surged in December, but imports fell for the year
Chinese soybean imports rose sharply to 10.
56 million mt in December, up 43.
6 percent from November and 19.
0 percent from a year earlier, hitting an 18-month high
, customs data showed on Friday.
Lower-than-expected soybean arrivals in the months had pushed domestic soybean meal prices to record levels
.
Despite the surge in imports in December, China's soybean imports for the whole year of 2022 were 91.
08 million mt, down 5.
6% year-on-year, the second consecutive year of year-on-year decline
.
56 million mt in December, up 43.
6 percent from November and 19.
0 percent from a year earlier, hitting an 18-month high
, customs data showed on Friday.
Lower-than-expected soybean arrivals in the months had pushed domestic soybean meal prices to record levels
.
Despite the surge in imports in December, China's soybean imports for the whole year of 2022 were 91.
08 million mt, down 5.
6% year-on-year, the second consecutive year of year-on-year decline
.
China's soybean imports may have peaked
In 2023, soybean demand growth
will be supported by low domestic soybean meal stocks in China, coupled with the reopening of the economy helping to boost demand for commodities such as meat.
However, considering that the feed formula of China's aquaculture industry has reduced the proportion of soybean meal, it is difficult to increase soybean imports significantly in the future
.
On Thursday, the USDA lowered its 2022/23 soybean import forecast to 96 million
mt from 98 million mt.
But in the first three months of 2022/23 (October-December), China's soybean imports were just over 22 million mt, well below what is needed to meet the
USDA's lowered target.
will be supported by low domestic soybean meal stocks in China, coupled with the reopening of the economy helping to boost demand for commodities such as meat.
However, considering that the feed formula of China's aquaculture industry has reduced the proportion of soybean meal, it is difficult to increase soybean imports significantly in the future
.
On Thursday, the USDA lowered its 2022/23 soybean import forecast to 96 million
mt from 98 million mt.
But in the first three months of 2022/23 (October-December), China's soybean imports were just over 22 million mt, well below what is needed to meet the
USDA's lowered target.
Rabobank expects that China's soybean imports may have peaked, remain weak and eventually decline until 2030, with imports likely to be 87 million tonnes in 2025 and further to 84 million tonnes by 2030, as meat production growth slows, farming practices continue to improve, and most importantly, low-soybean meal feed formulations
are widely adopted throughout the country.
Rabobank believes that China's future soybean imports will be mainly affected
by the outlook for feed demand and the proportion of soybean meal in feed.
The bank expects feed consumption in China to maintain low-single-digit growth
.
are widely adopted throughout the country.
Rabobank believes that China's future soybean imports will be mainly affected
by the outlook for feed demand and the proportion of soybean meal in feed.
The bank expects feed consumption in China to maintain low-single-digit growth
.
U.
S.
net soybean sales for 2022/23 were 720,000 mt in the week ended Jan.
5, 1% lower than last week and 41%
below the four-week average, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report.
Net sales in 2023/24 were 66,000 tonnes
.
U.
S.
soybean export sales totalled 44.
4 million mt so far in 2022/23, up 4.
6% from a year earlier and up 5.
1%
year-on-year last week.
So far in 2022/23, total U.
S.
soybean sales to China (those shipped and those not yet loaded) were 26.
79 million mt, up 11.
2% year-on-year, up 9.
8%
year-on-year the week before.
S.
net soybean sales for 2022/23 were 720,000 mt in the week ended Jan.
5, 1% lower than last week and 41%
below the four-week average, according to the USDA's weekly export sales report.
Net sales in 2023/24 were 66,000 tonnes
.
U.
S.
soybean export sales totalled 44.
4 million mt so far in 2022/23, up 4.
6% from a year earlier and up 5.
1%
year-on-year last week.
So far in 2022/23, total U.
S.
soybean sales to China (those shipped and those not yet loaded) were 26.
79 million mt, up 11.
2% year-on-year, up 9.
8%
year-on-year the week before.
Other news included that China's Ministry of Agriculture on Friday said it had approved eight genetically modified crops, including Corteva's glyphosate-resistant rapeseed DP73496, which was first developed by DuPont Pioneer and submitted for approval
in July 2012.
Corteva's predecessor was DowDuPont's Chemical Company
.
China has also approved three domestically developed genetically modified varieties, namely Longping Hi-Tech's insect-resistant and glyphosate-resistant corn and Hangzhou Ruifeng's insect-resistant soybeans
.
in July 2012.
Corteva's predecessor was DowDuPont's Chemical Company
.
China has also approved three domestically developed genetically modified varieties, namely Longping Hi-Tech's insect-resistant and glyphosate-resistant corn and Hangzhou Ruifeng's insect-resistant soybeans
.
Next Monday, the Chicago Board of Trade is closed to mark Martin Luther King Jr.
Day, and trading
resumes on Tuesday.
Day, and trading
resumes on Tuesday.
