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Global oilseed market: Biofuel policy is unfavorable, and oilseed prices have risen and fallen.

 Last Update: 2021-12-24
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Foreign media news on December 12: In the week ending December 10, 2021, global oilseed prices have risen and fallen
.
Strong soybean export sales in the United States , and droughts in parts of South America ( Southern Brazil and Argentina) affected by the La Niña phenomenon have supported soybean prices .
However, the U.
S.
government announced that it will lower the mandatory requirements for biodiesel blending in 2020 and 2021, which will limit the demand for soybean oil as a biofuel; South American soybean production prospects are still clear, Brazilian soybeans may be listed in advance, and Canadian rapeseed prices have begun to slow down demand.
This has a negative impact on oilseed prices .
The December supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture this week has a neutral impact on the market .

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January 2022 soybean futures rose approximately 0.
5 cents or 0.
04% from a week ago to close at 1,267.
75 cents per cat
.
The average spot price of US No.
1 yellow soybeans in the US Gulf was US$13.
5875 per pu (US$499.
3 per ton), up 4.
5 cents or 0.
33% from last Friday; Euronext February 2022 rapeseed futures closed at approximately 718.
25 euros /Ton, up 35.
5 euros or 5.
2% from a week ago
.
The intercontinental exchange (ICE) March rapeseed period was approximately 14.
70 Canadian dollars or 1.
48% lower than a week ago, to close at 979.
90 Canadian dollars/ton; Argentina’s Shanghe soybean FOB spot price was 552 US dollars (including 33% export tax), compared with A week ago, it was down $1, or 0.
2%
.
The January settlement price of soybeans on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,054 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan or 1.
2% from a week ago
.

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 96.
05 points, down 0.
1% from a week ago
.

　　The December supply and demand report landed silently

　　The December supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday was unremarkable and had little impact on the market
.
The report maintains the forecast value of the ending stocks of US soybeans for 2021/22 unchanged, still at 340 million bushels, an increase of 32.
8% over the previous year
.
The US Department of Agriculture did not adjust the US soybean supply and demand data
.
The average price of soybean farms in the United States in 2021/22 is expected to be US$12.
10 per cat, which is the same as last month’s forecast and higher than the previous year’s average of US$10.
80 per cat
.

　　In terms of global supply and demand, the ending stocks of world soybeans in 2021/22 are expected to be 102 million tons, lower than the 103.
78 million tons predicted last month
.
Due to lower soybean production in China and Paraguay, global soybean production is expected to be 381.
78 million tons, down 2.
23 million tons from the previous forecast
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture maintained its soybean import forecast for China unchanged at 100 million tons; exports from Argentina and Brazil also remained unchanged
.

　　Biofuel policy is bad

　　Just a few days after the Brazilian government lowered the biofuel blending rate in 2022, the U.
S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also lowered the mandatory blending requirements for biofuels in 2020 and 2021 this week, putting negative pressure on the soybean and soybean oil market.

.
The Environmental Protection Agency proposes to retrospect the mandatory blending of renewable fuels in 2020 to 17.
13 billion gallons, which is lower than the previously determined 20.
09 billion gallons
.
The total compulsory blending of biofuels in 2021 and 2022 is set at 18.
52 billion gallons and 20.
77 billion gallons, respectively
.
Republican Senator Jonny Ernst from Iowa, a major corn-producing state, commented on this that this decision was a shift from President Biden, who claimed to support renewable fuels during the campaign
.
She added that the new policy will reduce the demand for biofuels
.

　　However, the US Department of Agriculture maintained its soybean oil consumption data for the biofuel industry in the December supply and demand report unchanged at 11 billion pounds, a year-on-year increase of 24.
3%
.
The average US soybean oil price in 2021/22 is expected to be 65 cents per pound, which is the same as last month’s forecast and higher than 56.
87 cents per pound last year
.

　　The recent strong demand for U.
S.
soybean exports

　　From November 30 to December 9, the US Department of Agriculture reported 1.
2161 million tons of soybean sales through the single-day sales notification system, of which 395,000 tons of soybeans were sold to China and 821,100 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations
.

　　On December 9, private exporters reported selling 280,000 tons of U.
S.
soybeans to unknown destinations, of which 140,000 tons will be delivered in 202/22 and 140,000 tons will be delivered in 2022/23
.

　　On December 8, it reported the sale of 130,000 tons of US soybeans to China
.
On December 7, it reported the sale of 123,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations
.
On December 6, it reported the sale of 130,000 tons of soybeans to China
.
On December 3, it reported the sale of 122,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations
.
On December 2 it reported the sale of 135,000 tons of soybeans to China and 164,100 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations
.
On November 30, it reported that 132,000 tons of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations
.
All are delivered in 2021/22
.

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending December 2, US soybean net sales for the 2021/22 season were 1.
64 million tons, an increase of 54% from last week and an increase of 27% from the four-week average
.
However, so far this year, total US soybean export sales are still down 26.
5% year-on-year to 38.
8 million tons.
This is because sales to China fell to 21.
28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.
9%
.

　　According to Chinese customs data, China’s soybean imports in November were 8.
57 million tons, an increase of 68% from the 5.
11 million tons in October, but lower than the 9.
59 million tons in November last year
.
In the first 11 months of this year, China imported 87.
65 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year decrease of 5.
5%
.
For most of this year, China's pig industry suffered losses, causing soybean crush profits to fall into negative value in June
.
Although it recovered somewhat later, it has fallen again recently
.

　　South American soybean production is expected to be huge, despite La Nina weather causing concern

　　The National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), a subsidiary of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, in its December monthly report raised Brazil’s soybean production in 2020/22 to a record 142.
79 million tons, which is 800,000 tons higher than the November forecast and an increase of 4 year-on-year.
%, this is because the rainfall in many major producing areas in November was good, the planting progress was higher than the historical average, and the early crop growth conditions were favorable
.
However, the southern region missed this wave of rainfall, causing local crop growth to face some pressure
.
At the end of this month, Brazil's first batch of soybeans this year will be harvested and marketed in Mato Grosso State
.

　　CONAB also raised the forecast value of Brazil's soybean exports in 2022 to 90.
67 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 89.
9 million tons
.
The export forecast for 2021 is also raised to 85.
79 million tons, which is more than 1 million tons higher than the November forecast
.

　　High canola prices in Canada slows demand

　　Canadian rapeseed prices have fallen this week.
In addition to the strong interest of long profits to liquidate their positions, the recent high prices have slowed down demand
.
According to the Canadian Grain Council, in the week ending December 5, 2021, the number of rapeseed delivered by Canadian farmers was 290,000 tons, down from 400,000 tons a week ago
.
Domestic consumption this week was 148,200 tons, which was lower than the 193,500 tons a week ago
.
So far this year, the domestic use of rapeseed is 3,335,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.
4%
.
Canada's rapeseed exports were 64,400 tons that week, far lower than the 226,000 tons a week ago
.
The export volume so far this year is 2.
4438 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45.
6%
.

Oilseed prices U.
S.
soybean exports to Brazil, bio- soybean oil, Canadian rapeseed, U.
S.
Department of Agriculture

　　，（CBOT）202210.
50.
04%，1267.
75/
。113.
5875（499.
3），4.
50.
33%；Euronext20222718.
25/，35.
55.
2%
。（ICE）314.
701.
48%，979.
90/；FOB552（33%），10.
2%
。16,054/，711.
2%
。

　　，96.
05，0.
1%
。

　　12，
。2021/22，3.
4，32.
8%
。
。2021/2212.
10，，10.
80/
。

　　，2021/221.
02，1.
0378
。，3.
8178，223
。，1；
。

　　2022，（EPA）20202021，
。2020171.
3，200.
9
。20212022185.
2207.
7
。·，，
。，
。

　　122021/22，110，24.
3%
。2021/2265，，56.
87/
。

　　1130129，121.
61，39.
5，82.
11
。

　　129，28，142021/22，142022/23
。

　　12813
。12712.
3
。12613
。12312.
2
。12213.
5，16.
41
。113013.
2
。2021/22
。

　　，122，2021/22164，54%，27%
。，26.
5%，3880，2128，29.
9%
。

　　，11857，1051168%，11959
。118765，5.
5%
。，6
。，
。

　　，

　　High canola prices in Canada slows demand

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