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Global Meat Market Trend Analysis 2022 and Outlook 2023 (2)

 Last Update: 2022-12-30
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Poultry meat production continues to grow, but at a slower pace

Global poultry meat production is expected to be 138.
8 million tonnes in 2022, up slightly by 0.
6% from 2021 and the slowest pace of growth on record
.

High feed and energy prices, labour shortages and widespread outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses have led to tight supplies
.
New outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Latin America and the Caribbean are likely to further impact the outlook
for poultry meat production in the coming months.
Despite the challenges, production is expected to increase in countries such as the United States, Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil, but declines may occur in China, the European Union and Iran, offsetting some poultry increases
in some other countries.

Despite the impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks and high input prices, U.
S.
poultry meat production is expected to rise
in line with increased domestic demand.

Poultry meat production is expected to increase
in Turkey due to improved breeding poultry supply and government support for lower electricity prices, resulting in increased import demand, especially from the Middle East.

Russia expects an increase
in production due to the large number of hatching eggs and chicks imported from the EU (which are not covered by Russia's counter-sanctions embargo against Western countries).

Although the coronavirus has had a negative impact on Mexican poultry meat supply and demand, the poultry meat sector has increased its share to nearly 50% of total meat production, as demand remains strong, and Mexican poultry meat production is expected to grow
steadily year on year.

Brazilian poultry production growth in 2022 is expected to be the slowest in the past three years
.
In addition to strong import demand and increased slaughter weight, domestic consumer demand for poultry meat remains strong
in Brazil.
Overall meat demand in Brazil was affected
due to lower purchasing power.

China's poultry meat production is expected to decline, reflecting a shift in consumer demand to pork and lower domestic demand
.
In addition, rising production costs have also affected poultry products, leading to higher prices
since April 2022.
Rising input costs have also led to the withdrawal of some producers
.

Despite relatively good demand, EU poultry meat production is expected to contract
due to the severe impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza and rising input costs.

Iran's poultry meat production is expected to decline as high feed prices squeeze the profit margins of poultry producers and the government imposes a farm threshold price cap
to curb rising food prices.

Compared to 2021, total world poultry meat exports are expected to increase by 2.
8% to 16.
2 million tonnes in 2022, mainly driven by increased poultry imports from the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, EU and Iraq, while poultry imports from China and Saudi Arabia declined
.

Poultry purchases in the UK and EU are likely to reach pre-Brexit trade levels
, driven by a recovery in the food services sector and limited growth in production due to highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks.

Strong domestic demand has boosted poultry meat purchases in the UAE, accounting for around
10% of Brazil's total poultry meat exports.
Iraqi poultry meat purchases are expected to increase year-on-year, mainly from Turkey and Brazil
.

China's poultry meat imports declined due to lower domestic demand; Poultry meat production continues to expand
due to Saudi investment and government support to increase national food security, as well as import bans imposed in recent months.

Although Brazil and Ukraine remain the two main suppliers to Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia's poultry purchases from Brazil and Ukraine fell by more than 25% from January to August 2022 compared to the same period last year, but increased purchases from Russia and Argentina
.

In terms of exports, Brazil, China and Turkey will see the most significant growth
in poultry meat exports in 2022.

Brazil's exports increased due to tight poultry supplies from the United States and the European Union, lower Ukrainian poultry exports, and a stronger US dollar (in favor of Brazilian exporters), which accounted for 30% of global poultry exports
.
In 2022, the Brazilian poultry industry reduced its dependence on China as a major export market and increased exports
to the UAE, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Singapore.
In addition, poultry meat exports to South Africa are expected to surge due to
the 12-month suspension of anti-dumping duties in August 2022.

Despite a possible decline in production, China's poultry exports are expected to increase by 22%, reflecting increased pork supply and a possible shift in consumption to pork
.

Similarly, Turkey's poultry meat exports are expected to increase by around
15% due to ample supply.
In the first nine months of 2022, Turkish poultry meat exports surged by about 20% compared to last year, with more than 50% going to Iraq
.

US and EU poultry meat exports are likely to decline due to supply constraints and trade restrictions
due to a widespread outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in 2022.

Ukraine's poultry exports are likely to fall by around 8% in 2022, mainly due to the devastation
caused by the war.
Ukraine has been developing alternative routes for the resumption of exports and benefiting from the removal of trade barriers announced by the European Union on July 4, 2022, and Ukrainian poultry meat exports may increase
in the later period.
Despite the year-on-year decrease, Ukraine's exports to the EU (especially the Netherlands and Slovakia), the UAE and, more recently, to Saudi Arabia and Turkey began to increase
month-on-month.

Figure 7 Major export markets for Brazilian poultry

Global beef exports may continue to grow, and consumer demand growth slows

Global beef production in 2022 is expected to be 73.
9 million mt, up 1.
4%
from the previous year.
Production in Brazil, China, India and Argentina is expected to increase, offsetting declines in Colombia, the European Union and New Zealand, while U.
S.
production was essentially flat
year-on-year.

After two consecutive years of declining production, Brazilian beef production is expected to increase by 5.
3%
due to increased beef cattle supply, increased global import demand and higher international beef prices.
In addition, due to higher prices and lower purchasing power, consumers turned to more affordable meat products, domestic beef consumption demand declined, and Brazilian beef was more used for export
.

China's beef production is expected to grow by 2.
2% in 2022,
driven by increased domestic consumer demand and increased slaughter.

Indian beef production is expected to increase due to
increased carcass weight and growing global beef demand.

Argentine beef production is expected to continue to increase in 2022, as investment increases, lower slaughter ages for beef cattle, higher yields of fine breeds and farm
revenues, and increased beef exports, especially to China.

Colombian beef production is expected to decline
due to sluggish domestic consumption and reduced export supplies, resulting in lower slaughters.

EU beef production is expected to fall by 0.
6% due to lower income for farmers due to higher production costs and reduced stocks, which, combined with environmental restrictions, are expected to fall by 0.
6%.

New Zealand production is expected to fall by 4%
due to a prolonged dry climate, resulting in a decrease in carcass weight.
During the peak season of beef cattle slaughter (March to May), due to the labor shortage caused by the new crown epidemic, which is not conducive to beef production and operation activities, but the extension of the slaughter season is conducive to the slaughter of beef cattle in the pre-processing period, and New Zealand beef production recovered
slightly in the second half of 2022.

Meanwhile, beef production in the United States, the world's largest beef producer, is expected to be essentially flat from last year, mainly due to a dry climate and insufficient supply of fodder grasses, which contributed in part to
reduced carcass weight.

Global beef exports are expected to grow by 5.
2% to reach 12.
7 million mt
in 2022.
The main reason for the increase in global beef exports is the significant increase in export supply from Brazil in 2022, as well as the increase in exports from countries such as India, the United States, Mexico, Argentina and the European Union
.
In contrast, exports from countries such as New Zealand, Belarus, Russia and Canada are expected to decline due to
tight domestic supplies.

Brazilian beef exports are expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the lifting of China's ban on Brazilian beef imports from December 2021 and the recovery of Brazilian beef export market share to 2020 levels
due to the depreciation of the national currency against the US dollar.
From January to October 2022, Brazilian beef exports increased by 23%, of which 57% went to China, with significant increases in exports to the United States and Egypt
.

Increased international demand drove a significant increase
in Indian beef exports.
India has tighter border controls on goods in transit, but increased exports to Egypt, the Middle East and their Asian export destinations have boosted exports, while exports to Vietnam are nowhere near pre-Covid levels
.

U.
S.
beef exports are expected to grow
year-on-year, driven by rising import demand from China.

Mexican beef exports are expected to grow
steadily.
Mexican beef is mainly exported to the United States, thanks to the
consumption characteristics of American consumers who prefer lean meats and other meats.

Although Argentina issued a cap on beef exports in May 2021, beef exports are expected to increase by 29,000-30,000 tonnes per month in 2022 (until the end of 2023).

Argentina exports to the EU according to the Hilton quota (Argentina makes a specific allocation
for the Hilton quota of Argentine beef exported to Europe in 2022/2023.
In the new year, Argentina's total quota to the European market remained at 29,500 tons, of which 111 tons were allocated to the UK separately due to Brexit and 29,389 tons were allocated to Hilton exports to other EU markets (of which 1,215 tons were not allocated).

Argentina has the largest tariff-free export quota for beef to the EU, but in order to ensure the supply of its own market, it has rarely exhausted all its quota in the past decade
.
This quota utilization rate was only slightly over 90%
in 2020/2021.
In 2021/2022, Argentina's exports of Hilton quota beef to the EU market once again resumed its previous rhythm, with a quota utilization rate of 96%.

), exports to the United States on a duty-rate quota basis and exports to Colombia on a quota basis, which are not subject to the above-mentioned export quota system used to
guarantee domestic supply.
In addition, the amount of low-quality beef exported to China is not covered
by the monthly export quota.

EU beef exports are expected to rebound slightly, mainly due to increased demand from the UK and sharp declines in other major export destinations, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina, Switzerland and the Philippines
.

On the import side, beef imports from China and Egypt are expected to increase due to continued growth in domestic demand, while Indonesian beef imports are expected to increase amid the adverse impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and bovine sarcoidosis (LSD) on domestic production to stabilize domestic prices
.
In contrast, Chile, Russia, Mexico, Japan and Canada are expected to import less
due to lower consumer demand or increased domestic supply.

Figure 8 Major export markets for Argentine beef

Table 1 Meat supply and demand situation in the world, major regions and countries in 2022

Table 2 Global poultry meat supply and demand in major regions and countries in 2022

Table 3 Global and major regional and national beef supply and demand in 2022

Related Stories: Global Meat Market Trend Analysis in 2022 and Outlook for 2023 (1)

Global Meat Market Trend Analysis 2022 and Outlook for 2023 (3)

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