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The weather situation in South American agricultural production areas is still worrying, international crude oil futures are further strengthened, and the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense to support the feed grain market
.
On Friday, March 2022 corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around 651 cents a bushel, up 30.
5 cents, or 4.
92%, from a week ago
.
U.
S.
Gulf No.
2 yellow corn was quoted at 748.
5 cents a bushel, up 34.
5 cents, or 4.
8 percent, from a week ago
.
March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange settled at around €255/tonne, up €3.
25, or 1.
3%, from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was $286/ton, up $13 or 4.
8% from a week ago
.
The May 2022 corn futures of DCE closed at about 2,776 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.
3% from before the Spring Festival
.
5 cents, or 4.
92%, from a week ago
.
U.
S.
Gulf No.
2 yellow corn was quoted at 748.
5 cents a bushel, up 34.
5 cents, or 4.
8 percent, from a week ago
.
March 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange settled at around €255/tonne, up €3.
25, or 1.
3%, from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was $286/ton, up $13 or 4.
8% from a week ago
.
The May 2022 corn futures of DCE closed at about 2,776 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.
3% from before the Spring Festival
.
This week, international crude oil futures rose for the eighth week in a row, hitting a new high in more than seven years, as crude demand continued to recover, supply growth from oil-producing countries was limited, and fears of a large-scale conflict in Russia and Ukraine also raised concerns about supply disruptions
.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) March contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $93.
10 a barrel, up 0.
86% from a week ago, while the global benchmark April Brent crude futures closed at 94.
44 USD/barrel, up 1.
25% from a week ago
.
.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) March contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $93.
10 a barrel, up 0.
86% from a week ago, while the global benchmark April Brent crude futures closed at 94.
44 USD/barrel, up 1.
25% from a week ago
.
On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 96.
03, up 0.
6% from a week earlier
.
S.
dollar index closed at 96.
03, up 0.
6% from a week earlier
.
USDA supply and demand report muted
The supply and demand report released by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture on Feb.
9 was uneventful
.
The report left U.
S.
corn supply and demand data unchanged for 2021/22
.
Although corn production in some major corn-producing countries in South America is lowered, the reduction is less than market expectations
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered Brazil’s corn production by 1 million tons, from 115 million tons forecast last month to 114 million tons, but still a record high; Paraguay’s corn production is expected to be 3.
3 million tons, down 700,000 tons from the previous month ton, a record low in nearly 10 years, because of the lack of rainfall in major producing areas since December
.
S.
Department of Agriculture on Feb.
9 was uneventful
.
The report left U.
S.
corn supply and demand data unchanged for 2021/22
.
Although corn production in some major corn-producing countries in South America is lowered, the reduction is less than market expectations
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture lowered Brazil’s corn production by 1 million tons, from 115 million tons forecast last month to 114 million tons, but still a record high; Paraguay’s corn production is expected to be 3.
3 million tons, down 700,000 tons from the previous month ton, a record low in nearly 10 years, because of the lack of rainfall in major producing areas since December
.
USDA Surprisingly Leaves Argentine Corn Production Unchanged
Most surprisingly, the USDA left Argentina's corn production unchanged this month at 54 million tons
.
For comparison, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday lowered Argentina's corn production for 2021/22 to 51 million tons from 57 million
.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina's corn production sharply by 8 million tons last month to 48 million because of dry weather in the December-to-December period
.
The exchange this month left its 2021/22 corn crop forecast unchanged for Argentina
.
But the exchange warned that some early harvest corn yields were unusually low due to dry weather, which is not a good sign
.
The exchange said it needed to wait for the corn harvest to advance further to gain a clearer picture of the final outcome
.
.
For comparison, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday lowered Argentina's corn production for 2021/22 to 51 million tons from 57 million
.
The Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina's corn production sharply by 8 million tons last month to 48 million because of dry weather in the December-to-December period
.
The exchange this month left its 2021/22 corn crop forecast unchanged for Argentina
.
But the exchange warned that some early harvest corn yields were unusually low due to dry weather, which is not a good sign
.
The exchange said it needed to wait for the corn harvest to advance further to gain a clearer picture of the final outcome
.
Global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio hits 8-year low
This month, the USDA lowered global corn production to 1,205.
35 million tons, 1.
6 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, and ending stocks were lowered to 302.
2 million tons, 850,000 tons lower than the previous month
.
The world corn ending stocks-to-use ratio was 25.
25%, the lowest level since 2013/14, which also highlights the importance of this year's high corn harvest in South America
.
35 million tons, 1.
6 million tons lower than the previous month's forecast, and ending stocks were lowered to 302.
2 million tons, 850,000 tons lower than the previous month
.
The world corn ending stocks-to-use ratio was 25.
25%, the lowest level since 2013/14, which also highlights the importance of this year's high corn harvest in South America
.
Brazil's corn crop still likely to be bumper
Unlike hot and dry weather that has led to a sharp reduction in Brazil's soybean production, Brazil's corn production is still likely to be bumper, because Brazil is currently harvesting corn for the first season, which accounts for less than 25% of the annual output; The sown second-crop corn accounts for 75% of the total production
.
In addition, the third crop of corn accounted for 1.
5% of the total production
.
.
In addition, the third crop of corn accounted for 1.
5% of the total production
.
Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corporation (CONAB) this week projected Brazil's corn production in 2021/22 to reach 112.
34 million tonnes, up 29 percent from a year earlier
.
The first-season corn output is expected to be 24 million tons, close to the previous year's output; the second-season corn output is expected to be 86 million tons, unchanged from January's forecast and 47% higher than the previous year's decline due to frost and drought, as corn prices Attractive, and second crop planting is progressing well
.
Brazil's second crop of corn and soybeans is rotated, planted after the soybeans are harvested
.
As of February 7, Brazil's second-season corn planting progress reached 22.
4%
.
Mainly in Mato Grosso, the state's second-season corn planting progress has reached 43 percent
.
34 million tonnes, up 29 percent from a year earlier
.
The first-season corn output is expected to be 24 million tons, close to the previous year's output; the second-season corn output is expected to be 86 million tons, unchanged from January's forecast and 47% higher than the previous year's decline due to frost and drought, as corn prices Attractive, and second crop planting is progressing well
.
Brazil's second crop of corn and soybeans is rotated, planted after the soybeans are harvested
.
As of February 7, Brazil's second-season corn planting progress reached 22.
4%
.
Mainly in Mato Grosso, the state's second-season corn planting progress has reached 43 percent
.
Brazil's corn exports in 2021/22 will reach 35 million tons, up from 20.
8 million the previous year
.
CONAB expects Brazil to import 1.
7 million tonnes of corn in 2021/22, up from an earlier forecast of 1.
3 million tonnes due to a reduced first-season corn crop
.
8 million the previous year
.
CONAB expects Brazil to import 1.
7 million tonnes of corn in 2021/22, up from an earlier forecast of 1.
3 million tonnes due to a reduced first-season corn crop
.
Brazil's corn exports in February 2022 are forecast at 521,203 tonnes, up from an estimate of 447,414 tonnes a week earlier and up from 508,407 tonnes in February last year, the Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said
.
Brazil's corn exports in January 2022 were 2.
294 million tons
.
.
Brazil's corn exports in January 2022 were 2.
294 million tons
.
Russia-Ukraine tensions create uncertainty for Ukrainian corn exports
Recent geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine have raised concerns about a hit to grain exports
.
From Sunday (February 13), Russia will begin full-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea
.
Chicago corn futures rose more than 2% at one point on Thursday's announcement, but later pared those gains and ended lower
.
Chicago grain futures rose again on Friday after the United States claimed that Russia and Ukraine would break out in a large-scale armed conflict in the near future
.
Russia's naval exercises will take place in international waters
.
Ukrainian traders generally believe that this will not affect Ukrainian grain exports
.
.
From Sunday (February 13), Russia will begin full-scale naval exercises in the Black Sea
.
Chicago corn futures rose more than 2% at one point on Thursday's announcement, but later pared those gains and ended lower
.
Chicago grain futures rose again on Friday after the United States claimed that Russia and Ukraine would break out in a large-scale armed conflict in the near future
.
Russia's naval exercises will take place in international waters
.
Ukrainian traders generally believe that this will not affect Ukrainian grain exports
.
The Ukrainian corn export situation remains strong so far this year
.
Ukrainian customs said that as of February 9, 2022, Ukraine's grain exports in 2021/22 reached 39.
9 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons over the same period of the previous year
.
Among them, the export volume of corn was 16.
62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.
1%
.
.
Ukrainian customs said that as of February 9, 2022, Ukraine's grain exports in 2021/22 reached 39.
9 million tons, an increase of 10 million tons over the same period of the previous year
.
Among them, the export volume of corn was 16.
62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.
1%
.
From October 2021 to January 2022, Ukraine’s corn exports totaled 14.
1 million tons, and China was the number one importer (4.
6 million tons), accounting for 32% of Ukraine’s total exports
.
The EU is the second largest importer with a 31% share
.
1 million tons, and China was the number one importer (4.
6 million tons), accounting for 32% of Ukraine’s total exports
.
The EU is the second largest importer with a 31% share
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture maintained its 2021/22 Ukrainian corn production unchanged at 42 million tons in its February supply and demand report, up 38.
6% year-on-year, and Ukrainian corn exports are also expected to remain at 33.
5 million tons, up 40.
4% year-on-year
.
S.
Department of Agriculture maintained its 2021/22 Ukrainian corn production unchanged at 42 million tons in its February supply and demand report, up 38.
6% year-on-year, and Ukrainian corn exports are also expected to remain at 33.
5 million tons, up 40.
4% year-on-year
.
