Global corn and soybean supplies are tightening, and countries are actively replenishing stocks

Recently, the price of domestic feed enterprises began to rise in a new round, with an increase of 75~200 yuan / ton, mainly due to the decrease in soybean arrivals, the tight supply of soybean meal encountered the arrival of downstream demand season and the breeding profit was well supported, and the price of soybean meal climbed to the highest point
in the year.
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According to the latest monthly report released by the International Grains Council (IGC), the global soybean production forecast for 2022/2023 was lowered by 1 million tons to 386 million tons; Global soybean consumption in 2022/2023 is expected to be flat at 378 million tonnes
.
At the same time, the global soybean ending stocks forecast for 2022/2023 was raised by 1 million mt to 54 million mt; Cut the global maize production forecast for 2022/2023 to 1.
166 billion mt from 1.
168 billion mt
.
Revised down the 2022/2023 global wheat consumption forecast to 784 million tonnes
from 785 million mt.
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Countries around the world are actively replenishing their cereal stocksq3j-，

As far as the global cereal market is concerned, as new crops in the northern hemisphere are coming to market, the replenishment of stocks in various countries has once again attracted attention
.
Recently, corn import demand in the EU27 countries has increased
due to superimposed factors such as drought and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Data show that the 27 EU countries have imported 7.
88 million tons of corn this year, compared with 3.
92 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 50.
25%.

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Among exporters, Canada's wheat exports were 3.
337 million mt this year, up 24.
6%
year-on-year.
In addition, Asian buyers have significantly increased their purchases
of Australian wheat in recent times.
It is reported that the Philippines and South Korea have purchased at least four batches of feed wheat in the past day due to uncertainty over Black Sea grain exports, of which the Philippine Import Group has booked 150,000 tons of Australian feed wheat at a price of about $340/mt
.
It should be noted that Turkey, which has been mediating Russian grain exports, has increased its grain stocks significantly in recent times, and it is reported that Turkey has a licensed warehouse capacity of 8.
6 million tons, and the Turkish Food Agency has purchased a record of more than 6 million tons of grain, including barley, wheat, soybeans, corn, etc.
, and the purchase of corn is still continuing
.
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Domestic soybean meal prices have soared and may fall in the futureq3j-，

In terms of the domestic market, the pork market has become the focus of attention in recent times, and with the rise in pork prices, domestic soybean meal has risen like a rocket under the situation of tight supply in stages
.
According to relevant data, as of October 19, the average spot quotation of 43% protein soybean meal from major domestic coastal manufacturers was about 5390 yuan / ton
.
Among them, Dalian area is about 5300 yuan / ton, Tianjin area is about 5300 yuan / ton, Rizhao area is about 5320 yuan / ton, Zhangjiagang area is about 5360 yuan / ton, Dongguan area is about 5700 yuan / ton, Fangchenggang area is about 5700 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, according to the latest calculation data, the theoretical duty-paid cost of US soybeans to China's ports is only 5550 yuan / ton recently, and the price of soybean meal has begun to invert the price
of soybeans to a certain extent.
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At present, the supply of soybean products in China mainly comes from foreign markets, in the first half of 2022 because of the sluggish domestic pig breeding, resulting in a decline in the number of soybean crushing, a decrease in the supply of soybean meal, and then in the northern hemisphere due to climate and other reasons, resulting in a decrease in soybean production, increasing the global soybean price soaring, resulting in insufficient soybean imports in China, in the second half of the year with the recovery of the pig breeding industry, the situation of insufficient soybean meal stocks eventually led to the current high prices
.
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The good news is that China has purchased millions of tons of soybeans from Argentina in September, and with the recent launch of US soybeans, the pace of soybean procurement in China has accelerated
significantly.
Data shows that as of October 6, 2022, Chinese buyers have purchased 622,000 tons of new soybeans from the United States, of which 607,000 tons have been shipped
.
Comprehensive data show that the total amount of soybeans sold by the United States to China but not yet loaded to China so far is 13.
59 million tons, up from 11.
02 million tons
in the same period last year.
It is expected that with the gradual recovery of China's soybean imports, the insufficient supply of soybean meal market will be improved
.
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In addition, soybean sown area is expected to increase by 3.
4% to 42.
89 million hectares
due to record highs in Brazil's main producing regions.
The USDA raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean production in 2022/23 by 3 million mt to a record 152 million mt
.
At the same time, as of October 15, Brazil's soybean sowing rate has reached 21.
5% since September 2022, and the soybean sown area in 2022/23 has reached 24%
of the expected area, according to the data.
However, even in areas where planting is early, harvests will begin in January 2023, so Brazil's soybean yield is expected to be the biggest downside for
the soybean market in the future.
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Domestic corn price trends divergeq3j-，

Recently, the trend of domestic corn prices has diverged, and prices in the northeast have weakened under the background of the concentrated listing of new grains, but the Huanghuai region has resumed its upward trend
.
The latest data show that at present, Shandong Zhucheng Golden Rooster Feed has adjusted the purchase price of corn, from 1.
42 yuan to 1.
49 yuan, an increase of 140 yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of Jilin fuel ethanol tide grain was reduced by 20 yuan / ton, the price of dry grain remained unchanged, and the discount price of corn moisture above 15 was 2680 yuan / ton
.
Up to now, the theoretical duty-paid cost of corn in the United States is still maintained at about
3400 yuan / ton.
In contrast, the distribution price of domestic corn arriving at the southern port is about 2900~3000 yuan / ton
.
Therefore, China's procurement of US corn has weakened
in recent times.
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