Generic drugs "increase in volume and decrease in price", and the proportion or decrease in future sales is obvious

[pharmaceutical network market analysis] in recent years, driven by volume procurement and generic consistency evaluation, the era of high gross profit in China's generic pharmaceutical industry has passed Experts predict that generic drugs will "rise in volume and fall in price", and the proportion of sales may drop to 55% after five years In the market, enterprises with good quality and low price and generic pharmaceutical enterprises may be left behind China is the second largest pharmaceutical consumer market in the world In recent years, with the development of pharmaceutical environment, China's generic pharmaceutical industry is booming According to the data in 2018, China's total generic drug market has reached 500 billion yuan, accounting for about 40% of the total drug consumption market However, in the perspective of the whole domestic generic pharmaceutical industry, contrary to the huge market scale, the concentration rate of the generic pharmaceutical industry in China is very low, accounting for less than 20% This also means that the overall level of China's generic drug market is low, the production capacity is not centralized, and homogenization competition and vicious price war have taken place Statistics show that the average gross profit margin of China's generic pharmaceutical industry is only 5% - 10%, far lower than the international average of 50%, which shows that the profitability of China's generic pharmaceutical industry is very poor Moreover, compared with the efficacy of the original drugs, generic drugs have obvious disadvantages In order to improve the level of China's generic drugs, improve the concentration of the industry, relevant policies continue to be issued For example, the opinions on the evaluation of the consistency of quality and efficacy of generic drugs released in 2016 will further guarantee the safety and effectiveness of Chinese drugs, accelerate the upgrading and structural adjustment of the pharmaceutical industry, and enhance international competitiveness As of March this year, the National Drug Examination Center (CDE) has accepted 1000 acceptance numbers for consistency evaluation, involving 304 varieties of 332 enterprises, of which 167 acceptance numbers (80 varieties) have passed the consistency evaluation Among them, Hengrui, Zhengda Tianqing and other large-scale pharmaceutical enterprises with strong comprehensive ability get more acceptance numbers In contrast, some small and medium-sized pharmaceutical enterprises with weak economic and technological strength are difficult to get the "admission ticket" through the consistency evaluation, which also makes a batch of low-level and poor quality generic products gradually withdraw from the market Since 2019, with the promotion of policies such as volume purchasing and consistency evaluation, as well as the participation of original pharmaceutical research enterprises in the domestic market competition, the era of high gross profit in the generic pharmaceutical industry has become the past In particular, driven by the policy of expanding procurement with volume, the pattern of generic drugs is obviously facing changes As an important means for the country to promote the substitution of generic drugs for the original research drugs, volume procurement was decided to be implemented nationwide in the second half of the year after the implementation of the bid price of 25 varieties of pilot volume procurement in "4 + 7" cities According to the principle of "consistent quality and low price", the original research drugs will compete with generic drugs, and the price of drugs can not be reduced Experts predict that generic drugs will "rise in volume and fall in price" According to the calculation of Nanfang Institute of pharmaceutical economics, the proportion of generic prescriptions will rise to about 80% in 2024, while the proportion of sales will fall to about 55% It can be seen that the competition among generic pharmaceutical enterprises is no longer a simple marketing competition in the past, but a competition between R & D capacity, production capacity and product cluster construction In accordance with this trend, the concentration of China's generic drug market will continue to increase in the future The whole industry is facing a reshuffle Enterprises with good quality and low price are expected to win more market shares, while generic drugs also have opportunities to gain opportunities.