General situation of domestic aquatic feed in 2012 and development characteristics in 2013

Introduction:

.　2012 industry development overview 2012 is the rapid development of domestic aquatic feed industry, the total annual production of aquatic feed reached 18.55 million tons, the growth rate of nearly 20%, is the overall growth in the past decade better year
from the overall sales situation of the whole year, thanks to the ideal weather conditions and increased enthusiasm of farmers, the first half of 2012 in the country's major regions of aquatic feed demand showed explosive growth, some leading enterprises and brand enterprises growth rate reached or even more than 30% (Tongwei shares in the first half of 2012 aquatic feed growth rate of more than 40%)
Especially in southern China, the benchmark enterprise puffing and shrimp even appear to be in a serious supply situation
In the second half of the year, with the climate conditions, aquaculture situation and market changes, sales growth in various regions slowed rapidly, because the second half of the aquatic feed sales volume exceeded the proportion of the annual sales volume of more than 60%, so the second half of the sales volume significantly lowered the growth rate of the whole year aquatic feed, but thanks to the rapid growth of the first half of the year, the national aquatic feed growth rate still reached close to 20% of the best level in nearly a decade
from the national sales area, aquatic feed sales are mainly concentrated in south, central and east China three major regions, these three regions of aquatic feed sales reached or even more than 4 million tons of levels; Among them, the top 10 provinces in 2012 are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Henan, Sichuan, Liaoning and Hebei, and the top 10 provinces with aquatic feed sales are close to 12 million tons, accounting for about 64% of the country's total annual aquatic feed production
from the mainstream aquatic feed enterprise sales, according to the relevant listed companies annual report and consulting company survey data, in 2012 China's top 10 aquatic feed enterprises according to production and sales volume and gross margin (individual sweed according to multi-party data adjustment) can be roughly divided into three echelons
The first echelon is 2 million tons of enterprises: Tongwei (2.12 million tons) and Haida (1.95 million tons); Among them, the total sales volume of the top 10 enterprises reached about 8.2 million tons, accounting for 44.2% of the total production of aquatic feed in 2012
At the same time, the sales of the top 11 to 20 enterprises are not much difference, are in about 10-20 million tons, such as Quanxing, Tianbang, Guangshun, Cargill, Oriental Hope, Cofco, Dabei Farmers, Huai Dajiang, Weifeng, Money, Jinping, Shihai, Australia and many other enterprises are at this level
According to the annual report, Tongwei's aquatic feed growth rate was 29.4% in 2012 and 23% in 2012, while the average growth rate of the top 20 aquatic feed enterprises in the industry was about 25.8%, exceeding the industry's overall average growth rate of about 5.8%
Last year, the total sales volume of the top 20 aquatic feed enterprises was about 9.5 million tons, that is, the sales volume of the top 20 enterprises has accounted for more than 50% of the total production of aquatic feed in 2012, with the further intensification of competition, the general trend of industry integration has become inevitable
Statistics show that since 2013, a total of 33 listed companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries have implemented or are in the process of restructuring, accounting for 42.31% of the listed companies in the industry, the industry continued to integrate, the industry concentration increased rapidly
Personally, in general, 500,000 tons of enterprises above the level will present a strong situation, especially 2 million tons of enterprises will be in a longer period of time to present the situation, but do not rule out the possibility of expanding the sales gap in the last 3 years; Enterprises may be polarized, a small number of enterprises will stand out, break through the million tons, and a considerable number of enterprises will maintain the status quo and even gradually shrink; At the same time, we should fully recognize and recognize that there are some regional strong and characteristic enterprises in each region worthy of our respect and learning
from the aquatic feed sales varieties, freshwater particles still accounted for a larger proportion
In 2012, China's aquatic pellet feed sales of about 13.77 million tons, accounting for 75% of the total sales of aquatic feed
The total amount of puffed material has been close to 2.5 million tons, accounting for about 10% of the market share in ordinary freshwater fish, and the puffed material is mainly concentrated in high-grade excellent varieties, accounting for about 73% of special cultured varieties other than shrimp and eel, while puffing It is gradually transitioning from the famous excellent varieties to the common cultured varieties, from the coastal area to the inland region, due to the influence of artificial, pond rent and input-output ratio, the cultivation of the famous excellent varieties will continue to heat up in recent years, which will certainly increase the demand for puffed material
At present, the country has been on the expansion line more than 300, of which more than 200 in southern China, the national expansion line production conservative estimate of more than 5 million tons, about 2012 national puffing material sales more than double, overall there is a situation of oversupply
However, personally, a few more competitive enterprises, puffing materials still have a larger room for growth
from the market competition environment, the country's aquatic feed sales in the six most concentrated regions: South China, East China, Central China, Southwest, North China and Northeast China, competition is still unbalanced: in general, south China, central China and East China competition pressure is higher than the southwest, north and northeast regions; However, with the establishment of Haida Group's East China Region in 2012 and the decision to invest 60% of the 1.4 billion yuan of capacity raised by Haida in the near future, it is foreseeable that the competition in East and Central China will be more intense in the coming years, with a new round of expansion competition to be launched in both regions
In the competitive environment of special aquatic feed, the four major special aquatic materials groups (Tongwei, Haida, Hengxing, Guangdong) have occupied the shrimp and high-grade special puffed materialmarket market capacity of about 60% market share, special aquatic feed than the general aquatic feed competition is more fierce
Although Tongwei has entered the special aquatic feed plate for more than ten years, but there are still many technologies, experience and ideas need to learn from the industry benchmark enterprises
In recent years, with the increase of the company's investment in special aquatic feed and the further increase of attention, the special aquatic feed plate has gradually shown good growth momentum, with a certain growth potential
.　2013 industry development characteristics and forecast after the rapid development of 2012, 2013 industry into its own adjustment period, coupled with the region's persistent rainfall, adverse weather conditions and end-price products and other factors, as of the end of August 2013, the overall development of the industry is still unsatisfactory, sales decline significantly
Against this background, the industry as a whole has seen a larger decline, more large and medium-sized enterprises and even leading enterprises in the medium-term results can not meet expectations, or even two-digit decline in the year-on-year
Overall, 2013 aquatic feed can be summed up by "overall downturn, high and low in both ends, and imbalance in regional development"
Overall downturn: the national perspective, basic all breeding varieties, regardless of high-grade low-grade, most lying in the reservoir is not high, farmers are not willing to feed, the terminal price weakness situation, seriously affecting feed sales
Two highs and lows: From the national monthly sales changes, sales growth in January-March 2013 was significant, sales began to decline significantly in April-July, and gradually improved from August
It is expected that the completion of the planned tasks of the southern enterprises (the overall situation of the northern region has been determined) will mainly depend on the weather conditions in September and October and the willingness of farmers to feed (preliminary estimates suggest that the overall growth in September and October will be more obvious, but there will be a greater imbalance in the regions)
Unbalanced regional development: Unlike the balanced development of regional production and sales in 2012, in 2013 there were large differences in the growth of aquatic feed sales in several major regions, such as South China, East China and Central China
2013 is the 31st anniversary of the establishment of Tongwei Group, in the industry itself adjustment, the overall industry downturn, a variety of uncertainties frequent years, how to ensure the sustained and stable development of enterprises is particularly important
We are pleased to see that in 2013, in the overall situation of the industry is grim, Tongwei shares of aquatic feed still achieved the trend of growth: in the first half of 2013, the total amount of aquatic feed increased by 7.3% YoY, special aquatic feed in the industry as a whole fell by more than 20%, to achieve nearly 20% growth, in the forefront of the industry
According to the market situation in August and September and the company's operating situation forecast, the growth rate in the second half of the year will be greatly improved, and is expected to continue to expand the gap with the major competitive enterprises, the aquatic feed sector is expected to exceed the major competitive enterprises by more than 300,000 tons for the whole year
2013, is the aquaculture and aquaculture feed industry into the trough of the year, but also the aquaculture industry itself to adjust the year, although in the situation of rapid integration of the industry, the integration and merger between enterprises has become the general trend, but for each enterprise, this stage of challenges and opportunities still exist - "equality before opportunity", the key is whether the ability to seize opportunities
This requires each enterprise to be more diligent, as far as possible to build their own advantages of each link, at the same time can be integrated into the advantages of each link, gradually turn the advantages into victory
Personally, every enterprise, regardless of size, as long as can maintain full respect for the industry, in a humble attitude to examine and comply with the law of change in the industry, enterprises can do bigger, more and more stronger, the entire industry will be more standardized, the development of the industry will be better and better
the following represents only personal views and does not represent the of Tongwei shares.