From the crisis of trust to the ups and downs of global competition in the past three years, China's vaccine industry has changed

On July 16, 2018, the upstart of domestic vaccines, Cansino Bio, completed the submission of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing application in less than a hundred days.

However, this happiness is too short-lived

On the second day of Cansino’s submission of the form, on July 17, 2018, Changchun Changsheng, an established vaccine company, issued a statement: “It is required to immediately stop using and store the company’s freeze-dried human rabies vaccine on the spot, and initiate the recall procedure.

The outbreak of this incident brought a fatal blow to China's vaccine industry, which has been on the cusp of "frequent scandals"

Suddenly, the anger and doubts of the people reached the highest point; the pressure of the regulatory authorities reached a critical point; and the enthusiasm and confidence of the capital market also dropped to a freezing point

Naturally, Kangsino's listing plan was ruthlessly photographed on the beach.

The incident also led to the formal implementation of China's first "Vaccine Management Law", which is known as the "most stringent in history".

It was also at this time that the heavens descended on great responsibility

In December 2019, just shortly after the "Vaccine Management Law" came into effect, the new crown epidemic broke out

In this unprecedented global pandemic, Chinese vaccines that have gone through ups and downs, rectification, lessons, and reorganization have shown their talents in the "war against the epidemic

At the same time, in the capital market, China’s vaccine companies are equally astonishing, refreshing and creating many records, such as "the richest man in medicine", "the richest man in Asia", "the first share of Cansino A+H vaccine", etc.

Next, let us take a look at the two aspects of "product technology" and "capital market".

Product technology situation

Keywords: new crown vaccine, mRNA, HPV, 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, herpes zoster.

(1) Global battle: new crown vaccine

From the above table of Southwest Securities' statistics, we can see that the current new coronavirus vaccines approved or authorized for emergency use in the world mainly include: inactivated vaccines, nucleic acid vaccines, vector vaccines (such as adenovirus vector vaccines), and several recombinant protein vaccines.

With the above path, Chinese companies are the only companies in the world to achieve full coverage, and their efficiency in R&D, production, distribution, and inoculation are surprisingly efficient, and they have become the world's first echelon

Among them, Cansino adenovirus vector vaccine is the fastest in the world to start phase II clinical products; Zhifei biological recombinant subunit protein vaccine is the world's first new crown recombinant subunit protein vaccine approved for clinical use; and recently, Sinopharm Zhongsheng also The new crown inactivated vaccine "third shot enhancement" replanting plan has been submitted, and the speed is comparable to that of the world

In addition, the new crown vaccine has not only accelerated the application and maturity of China's first-generation to third-generation vaccine technology, but also ignited China's enthusiasm for mRNA technology research
.

(2) Super dark horse: mRNA technology

In the entire epidemic, the mRNA vaccine was the most "out of the circle", which not only attracted the attention of the global scientific community, but also detonated the market
.
While spawning a market size of 100 billion yuan, the market value of two small enterprises, Moderna and BioNTech, which were originally little-known, was successfully doubled by more than ten times.
The tide goes up
.

In such a hot market, "mRNA" has opened up a "new era of vaccines", which has become the consensus of the industry, and Chinese companies have almost shown the strongest fighting spirit and tried their best to compete for the top spot on this new track
.

1) Can Fosun Pharma become the first mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in China? How big is the market?

In March 2020, Fosun Pharma took the lead and won the exclusive rights to the R&D and commercialization of BioNTech in Greater China.
At present, it has obtained emergency use authorization in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan
.
Pfizer/BioNTech of Germany has global market rights outside of Greater China
.

In July 2021, Fosun Pharma stated that the NMPA's review of Fubitai® has been basically completed, and that it is expected to become the first mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in China
.

But while Pfizer and BioNTech of Germany are making a lot of money in the global market, Fosun Pharma has not yet been approved for use in mainland China
.

As of September 9, 2021, China's 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have reported a total of 212.
9833 million doses of new coronavirus vaccine
.
"It seems that it is getting up early and catching up late for the evening.
" The market space left for Fubite® has become smaller and smaller.
Will Fubite® apply for the "third needle to strengthen needle" to open up new space in the future? Become the center of attention
.

In addition, according to the previous verification by Sina Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Pharmaceuticals stated that it will deploy mRNA tumor vaccine research and development in order to provide tumor patients with new options
.
But from agency to independent research and development, what is the strength of Fosun Pharma's mRNA? Wait and see
.

2) Watson Biology and Aibo Biology and Blue Magpie Biology mRNA big dream

Another domestic first mRNA new crown vaccine? Just when Fosun Pharma’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine was not approved, Watson Bio/Abbbio’s Viral mRNA Vaccine (ARCoV) has been expected to become the first domestic mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, (ARCoV) is approved in China The first clinical mRNA vaccine is also the first company in China to independently research and develop a new mRNA vaccine and enter Phase III clinical trials
.

It is worth noting that Abbio/Watson Biotech stated that its mRNA vaccine can be stored below 2℃~8℃ for at least 6 months, which greatly reduces the challenges caused by cold chain transportation
.
And Fubitai® must be stored at -70℃ from bottling to the moment before inoculating the patient, under harsh conditions
.

At the same time as the research and development progress, Watson Biotech announced the successful delivery of China's first mRNA new crown vaccine factory in early September 2021
.
This base has a total investment of 520 million yuan and is expected to produce 200 million doses of vaccine each year.
It is China's first mRNA new crown vaccine industrialization base
.

In addition, not only betting on the mRNA new crown vaccine, Watson Bio has continuously increased its layout in other areas of mRNA.
Not long ago, Watson Bio announced the joint development of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus 2 mRNA vaccines with Blue Magpie Bio The cooperation in product development and commercialization opened up a new field of research
.

3) Microbes: Several "most" mRNA determinations

As the first batch of mRNA new crown vaccines in China to enter clinical trials, Sri Lanka Microbes are always considered to have made poor progress in the early stage, but the determination of Sri Microbes in the field of mRNA cannot be underestimated
.

Recently, S.
Microbiology announced that it has been invited by the Lao Health Department to carry out clinical trials in its country and obtained clinical approval, becoming the first domestic mRNA new crown vaccine to carry out overseas clinical research
.

At the same time, Microbiology said that it has built a mature and stable emergency mRNA technology platform from R&D to industrialization, and it can quickly complete the iterative update of the vaccine within 4-6 weeks
.
According to Microbiology, from the perspective of R&D pipeline layout, the number of R&D pipelines ranks third in the world, second only to BioNTech and Moderna.
It is the first domestic mRNA industry chain technology platform with global independent intellectual property rights
.

In addition, according to reports, S.
Microbiology has established mRNA vaccine production bases in Zhangjiang and Fengxian districts of Shanghai and has taken the lead in opening up the large-scale production process of mRNA vaccines.
The "superfluid control" preparation equipment with independent core patents is currently the largest mRNA vaccine company in China
.

In addition to the above companies, the companies currently deploying mRNA technology in China include Aimei Vaccine/Livanda Bio, Minuo Hengkang, Shenxin Bio/Zhifei Bio, Transmit Bio, etc.
Many of these companies are around 2018.
The establishment is a veritable upstart in biotechnology
.

According to Sina Pharmaceuticals, "Shanghai Tuojie Biomedical Technology Co.
, Ltd.
", which is inextricably linked with Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, has also paid attention to mRNA technology.
Perhaps veterans such as Hengrui Pharmaceuticals have long been involved in this field.
Lurking
.

(3) Super Internet celebrities: HPV vaccine

The HPV vaccine has been the hottest "vaccine" in the Chinese market since its launch, and it has been difficult to find a single shot for a long time
.

At present, there are currently 4 types of HPV vaccines on the domestic market, domestically produced with 2 prices (Wantai Biotech), and imported ones with 2 prices (GSK), 4 prices and 9 prices (Mersk & Co.
)
.

Wantai Biotech's bivalent HPV vaccine was launched in China in April 2020, breaking the monopoly of foreign companies and squeezing GSK's market share in China's bivalent HPV vaccine by virtue of its price advantage
.
However, the most in demand in China's market is Merck’s quadrivalent HPV vaccine and 9-valent HPV vaccine.
These two vaccines are sold exclusively by Zhifei Biotech
.

In recent years, due to the agency of HPV vaccines, Zhifei Biotech's performance and market value have risen (mentioned later).
The current HPV vaccine agency agreement between Zhifei Biotechnology and Merck has been renewed until 2023
.

Under the upsurge of HPV vaccination, local companies such as China Pharmaceuticals, Watson Bio, Chengda Biotech, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Shenzhou Cell and other companies are also accelerating the research and development of HPV vaccines.
It is worth noting that domestically developed domestically developed Both 14-valent HPV vaccine (Shenzhou cell) and 11-valent HPV (China Bio) have entered clinical studies, further expanding the scope of virus prevention and highlighting their advantages
.

In addition, in July 2021, Watson Biotech stated that its Shanghai Zerun's bivalent HPV vaccine production has been included in the priority review list, and it is expected that the product will be produced and put on the market in 2022
.

(4) Golden varieties: 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine

In the past year or two, domestic 13-valent pneumococcal vaccines have also made waves
.

On September 9, Kangtai Biotech’s 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine was officially approved, becoming the second domestically produced and the third approved 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine in the world
.

At present, 13-valent pneumococcal vaccines from Pfizer and Watson Bio have been on the market in China
.

The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine is known as the golden species in the vaccine industry.
The original 13-valent pneumonia vaccine was developed by Pfizer.
Since it was approved for marketing in 2010, it has repeatedly ranked among the world's best-selling drugs TOP10.
The 2020 global vaccine market performance TOP1 is also by Pfizer’s 13-price Pneumonia vaccine was picked, with annual sales of about 5.
8 billion U.
S.
dollars, or about 37.
59 billion yuan, and the market space is huge
.

According to the drug clinical trial registration and information disclosure platform, there are 15 clinical trials on the "13-valent pneumococcal vaccine" in China, of which 5 have been completed and 9 are still in progress
.

▲List of clinical studies on 13-valent pneumococcal vaccines in China

Image source: Pharmaceutical Guanlan

In recent years, the number of domestic batches of 13-valent pneumococcal vaccines has continued to rise.
The industry believes that the next few years will continue to be a market dividend period.
As competition intensifies, how will this market be divided in the future? Worthy of attention
.

(5) The "Snake Nemesis" shingles vaccine is sold at a discount, and the market is cold?

In June 2020, the GSK shingles vaccine was approved for marketing in China, filling the gap in the domestic market
.

Herpes zoster is a serious hazard to the health of middle-aged and elderly people.
About one-third of people will suffer from herpes zoster in their lifetime, and about one-half of people aged 85 and over will suffer from herpes zoster
.

However, this high-profile product has not caused a hot market in the Chinese market like the "HPV" vaccine
.
Through e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba Health and JD Health, Sina Pharmaceuticals is concerned that the price of this vaccine from GSK is around 2,500 to 4,000 yuan.
The response stated that the discount is strong and the vaccine is also produced by GSK
.
What Sina Pharmaceuticals can see through AliHealth's Beijing area is that there are only a few dozen manufacturers' monthly sales records
.

It is reported that currently in China, 10 companies including Beike Biology, Wantai Biology, Watson Biology, Zhifei Biology, Dalian Yalifeng, Shanghai Institute of Biological Products, Changchun Qijian, Beijing Lvzhu Biology, Kangsino, etc.
More companies are deploying shingles vaccines
.

It is worth mentioning that although Changchun Changsheng’s shingles vaccine, which exploded before the mine, entered Phase III clinical trials very early, it was severely punished and declared bankrupt by the relevant departments because of the mine exploded.
After that, the project was also forced to stop
.
In order to repay the debt, Changchun Changsheng will also auction the shingles vaccine project online in 2020.
The starting price is about 157 million yuan.
However, no one asked after the auction started, and no buyer took over the auction, which led to the unsold auction
.

Capital situation

Keywords: "the richest man in medicine", "the richest man in Asia", "the king of Hong Kong stock market growth", "Watson Biotech was sold at a low price", "Hualan Biotech's performance exploded"

(1) The richest man in new medicine: Zhifei Biotech Jiang Rensheng and his family

Recently, the 35th Forbes Global Billionaires List announced that Zhifei Biotech founder Jiang Rensheng and his family have become the new richest man in the domestic pharmaceutical field
.

Judging from the performance of the secondary market, Zhifei Bio's share price has risen from 41.
3 yuan/share at the end of October 2018 to 158.
79 yuan/share (September 9, 2021), a cumulative increase of 2.
8 times
.

The take-off of Zhifei Biology, as mentioned above, is closely related to the agency relationship of Merck
.

On September 28, 2010, Zhifei Bio was listed on the Growth Enterprise Market
.
From its launch in 2010 to 2016, Zhifei's revenue never exceeded 1 billion
.
However, starting from 2017, Zhifei Biotech's performance has experienced explosive growth
.

The main reason is that in 2017, the country cancelled the legal status of domestic vaccine distributors and required international vaccine manufacturers to sell through their agents
.
With this opportunity, Zhifei Biotechnology has won the exclusive agency rights of Merck’s domestic four- and nine-valent HPV vaccines with its strong sales capabilities, and has since opened a window of performance outbreaks
.

After that, Zhifei Biotechnology started the development path of "agent + research and development", but Zhifei Biotechnology's "agent + research and development" business model has been questioned by investors
.

The 2020 annual report of Zhifei Biology shows that its five agency products contribute over 90% of the company’s revenue, most of which are derived from Merck’s HPV vaccine.
The current cooperation between the two parties will continue until June 2023, but investors are worried that once Merck’s The agency relationship changes, what does Zhifei Biotech use to prop up the current market value?

However, it is worth noting that in order to break the excessive reliance on agents, Zhifei Biotech stated that it will leverage the capital market to accelerate innovation and research and development.
In 2020, Zhifei Biotechnology will invest 480 million yuan in research and development, and the R&D investment will account for 40.
02% of independent product revenue.
In the previous year, the proportion was 19.
37%, and the data increased sharply
.

In addition, under the epidemic, the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine that it participated in the research and development was approved, allowing the company's independent innovation results to begin to show
.

(2) Wantai Bio-Former Chairman Zhong Sui Sui once topped the richest man in Asia

It is reported that Wantai Bio's business sources are mainly divided into two parts, one is vaccines, and the marketed products include hepatitis E vaccine and bivalent HPV vaccine; the other is a series of diagnostic reagents and instruments developed around chemiluminescence technology
.

The two concepts of "HPV vaccine" and "new crown detection reagents" once made capital crazy
.

In April 2020, Wantai Biotech went public.
After the listing, it has continuously raised 26 daily limit, with an increase of 1461% (more than 14 times), becoming the most powerful new stock in 2020, with an annual increase of more than 2000%
.

At that time, Zhong Suisui owned 75.
15% of Wantai Biotech and was chairman of Wantai Biotech
.
Then, in September 2020, Zhong Suansui held 84.
41% of the shares of Nongfu Springs landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
With the market value of Wantai Biotech and Nongfu Springs skyrocketing, Zhong Suisui, who has always been low-key, once became the richest man in China and the richest in Asia.
Concerned
.

However, after the highlight, in January 2021, Zhong Suansui resigned as chairman of Wantai Bio.
Now as of the close of noon on September 13, Wantai Biotech’s stock price is 184.
00 yuan/share from the highest point 299.
77 yuan/share, which has fallen 38.
6%
.

In a blink of an eye, the richest man in Asia has become a distant past
.

(3) CanSino's first "A+H" vaccine stock drops 100 billion gold crowns

After the Hong Kong stock listing plan was stranded in 2018, CanSino Bio-B has been brewing for more than half a year to venture into the capital market again, and then set a number of capital market records, experiencing ups and downs
.

In March 2019, CanSino Bio was officially listed on the H-shares of the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first vaccine stock listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
It rose nearly 60% on the first day of listing, sweeping away all the previous haze
.

On August 13, 2020, Cansino successfully landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board again and became the first "A+H" vaccine stock
.
Because of the joint development of the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine with the Institute of Bioengineering of the Academy of Military Medicine of the Academy of Military Sciences, Cansino was also named the "first share of the new crown vaccine" by the market
.

It is worth mentioning that in these two capital markets, Kansino has experienced great ups and downs
.

In the Hong Kong stock market, the share price of Cansino Bio-B reached a peak of HK$437 per share, and has now fallen to HK$292 per share.
In the Science and Technology Innovation Board market, Cansino Bio-B has also topped 798 yuan per share since June this year.
, Fell to 369.
42 yuan / share, and now the market value is less than 100 billion
.

There are many reasons for the sharp drop in Cansino's stock price, and JPMorgan Chase has significantly reduced its holdings in Hong Kong stocks and Eli Lilly's major shareholders have significantly reduced their holdings in the Science and Technology Innovation Board (cash over 3.
6 billion)
.

In addition, some people in the industry questioned that Cansino's new crown vaccine seems to be less effective than expected.
Although the pre-clinical progress is too fast, its production capacity does not seem to keep up
.

(4) The mid-term report of Hualan Biological's performance explosion was leaked ahead of time? Controversial

In 2021, on the evening of August 29, Hualan Biological released its interim performance report, achieving revenue of 1.
289 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.
06%; realizing net profit of 457 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.
64%; basic earnings per share of 0.
25 yuan, higher than the previous A year-on-year decrease of 10.
78%
.

Among them, revenue in the second quarter was 666 million yuan, an increase of 43 million yuan from the first quarter
.
Net profit was 204 million yuan, down 19.
37% from the first quarter
.

After the news of the performance explosion broke out, on August 30, 2021, Hualan Bio's stock was close to the lower limit, which was almost a natural reaction of the capital market
.

However, what is unusual is that on August 27, 2021, on the last trading day before the release of the Hualan Biological Intermediate News, the stock price was still very "stable" in the morning, and the situation suddenly changed after half an hour after the opening of the afternoon, and it crashed and stopped
.

Some analysts pointed out that the lower limit may be affected by the purchase of influenza vaccines issued by the Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention on August 20
.
However, there are also many investors who speculated that the performance of the interim report may have led to the lower limit, and they expressed their anger
.

(5) Watson Bio's "sale of assets to cause trouble"

As China's vaccine companies are slowly reorganizing and developing, some moths fly out
.

In December 2020, Watson Biological issued an announcement stating that it would transfer a 32.
6% stake in Shanghai Zerun Biotechnology Co.
, Ltd.
(“Shanghai Zerun”), a subsidiary of HPV vaccine as its main business, at a transfer price of 1.
14 billion yuan
.

This move caused an uproar
.
The management of Watson Biotechnology was fiercely bombarded by investors, and the words were fierce: "Do you treat us as fools? Don't you believe in karma?" "Can you replace Watson's chairman and management?" "This (will ) Will be a shame to China's capital market"
.

The reason for such a strong market sentiment was that at that time, Shanghai Zerun’s bivalent HPV vaccine was about to be approved, and the 9 price was also progressing smoothly.
The comparable company-Wantai Biologics was valued at nearly 78.
4 billion yuan at that time, while Shanghai Zerun was valued at only 3.
5 billion yuan in this transaction, which is suspected of selling assets at a low price
.

As the incident unfolded, Watson Bio's previous capital operation and the illegal vaccine operation case involving Shandong were slapped with "black history", and it fell into the forefront for a while
.
Watson Biotech subsequently said that it would not review the relevant transfer agreement for the time being
.

It is worth mentioning that Watson Biotech’s reason for selling Shanghai Zerun’s equity was to invest in mRNA vaccines.
At present, the company is indeed in full swing in mRNA vaccines
.

In addition, as mentioned earlier, Watson Bio is China's first domestically-made 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine approved enterprise
.

In the future, can Watson Biotechnology fully blossom in "HPV vaccine", "mRNA vaccine" and "13-valent pneumococcal vaccine"? What kind of performance will it have? Sina Pharmaceuticals will continue to pay attention
.

Reference materials:

Entrepreneurship "From the suspension of the listing to the market value of 100 billion yuan, Kang Xinuo Yu Xuefeng chooses the "dark moment" | Entrepreneur Person of the Year 2020"

"China's Vaccine Transformation in Ten Years: From "Crisis of Confidence" to the Only One in the World" by the Bureau of Health and Knowledge

E-pharmaceutical manager "The first independent domestic mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is about to start overseas clinical research, and Sri Lanka Microbiology strongly promotes the development of COVID-19 vaccine"

Times New Drug Observation "The second domestically produced 13-valent pneumonia vaccine! Kangtai Biological "Weimin Feibao" was approved for listing"