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The history of the new crown virus "Class B tube" has completely ended
.
On December 26, with the issuance of the Notice of the Health Commission on Printing and Distributing the Overall Plan for the Implementation of "Class B and B Tube" for Novel Coronavirus Infection, the new coronavirus infection will return to "Class B and B Tube"
.
The change in classification means that the new crown prevention and control will be completely changed
.
In response, the capital market responded: the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Index, and ChiNext Index rose
one after another.
However, the epidemic concept stock is very lonely
.
Whether it is CanSino in the vaccine sector or Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical in the field of oral medicine, the stock price has fallen
sharply.
Behind this, it reflects the huge mood swings of the market towards epidemic concept stocks
.
Of course, this does not mean that epidemic concept stocks have disappeared
.
Referring to the trend of the overseas epidemic, multiple rounds of shocks may be difficult to avoid.
This also indicates that whether it is a new crown vaccine or oral medicine and other epidemic prevention tools, there is still great room
for play.
A central question, though, is, who is up to the task?
/ 01 /
/ 01 /From "Class B tube" to "Class B tube"
From "Class B tube" to "Class B tube"According to the degree of infectivity and harm, China divides statutory infectious diseases into three categories
: Class A, Class B and Class C.
Among them, Class A infectious diseases, which are the most harmful, have the characteristics of fast spread, high fatality rate, and wide spread, and cause greater social harm
.
After Class A, the harm of Class B and Class C infectious diseases gradually decreases
.
The degree of harm and control measures naturally differ
.
Among them, Class A infectious diseases are the most severely
controlled.
According to China's Law on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases, Class A infectious diseases need to take isolation measures, which are specifically divided into three points:
Patients and pathogen carriers shall be treated in isolation, and the isolation period shall be determined according to the results of medical examinations;
For suspected patients, isolate and treat in a designated place before diagnosis;
Patients, pathogen carriers, and close contacts of suspected patients in medical institutions shall be medically observed and other necessary preventive measures
shall be taken in designated places.
Simply put, people infected with Class A infectious diseases and suspected cases need to be isolated and treated, while close contacts need medical observation to block the transmission route
as much as possible.
In contrast, the prevention and treatment of patients with Class B and C infectious diseases is simpler, and the necessary treatment and transmission control measures need to be taken according to the condition, without the need for isolation
.
However, at present, there are only two Class A infectious diseases in China, namely plague and cholera
.
The positioning of the new coronavirus is a Class B infectious disease
from the beginning.
However, considering the comprehensive factors such as transmissibility and harmfulness, in January 2020, the Health Commission included the new coronavirus in Class B infectious diseases, and said that it would take prevention and control measures
for Class A infectious diseases.
It is precisely for this reason that our "prevention and control" of the new crown in the past few years is inseparable from strict measures
.
Referring to the destructive power of the new crown, the measures of "Class B A pipe" are undoubtedly the right choice
.
Of course, the coronavirus is constantly changing
.
Nowadays, with the mutation of strains and other comprehensive factors, the prevention and treatment of new crown infection from the former "B tube" to "B B tube" is understandable
.
However, although the intensity of the new crown prevention and control has been downgraded, it does not mean that the epidemic is over
.
/ 02 /
/ 02 /Characteristics of the follow-up development of the epidemic: multiple rounds of impact
Characteristics of the follow-up development of the epidemic: multiple rounds of impactHow will the pandemic affect our lives?
The United States may be a reference example
of this.
From the perspective of epidemic prevention measures, the United States can be described as one of
the most open countries.
Overall, since the first shock in 2020, the United States has experienced a total of about 7 rounds of epidemic peaks
.
Moreover, what subverts the perception is that the "shock wave" does not weaken over time, but increases
in an irregular period.
As shown in the chart below, after two rounds of shocks in 2020, the United States experienced an "unprecedented" peak in 2021; In January 2022, this record was broken
again.
Not only the United States, but also Asian countries such as Japan and Singapore, the transmission law of the epidemic is roughly the same as that of the United States: multiple rounds of shock
.
Why is this the case? There are roughly two reasons:
First, neutralizing antibody titers decrease over time
, both naturally infected and after vaccination.
This also means that the protective effect will gradually weaken.
Second, the virus will continue to mutate, eventually producing immune escape
.
The mutation itself is very common
during viral replication.
After all, viruses need to constantly replicate themselves, and bugs will inevitably occur in the process, followed by mutant strains
.
In the mutation process, individual "unlucky molecules" may produce defective viruses, become uninfectious "weak chickens", or "burp" during the mutation process;
But there are also terrorists who have been significantly enhanced by mutations, such as greater transmission, faster replication, and possibly immune evasion
.
Referring to the overseas epidemic, virus mutation is the "culprit"
of the continuous impact of the shock wave.
As shown in the figure below, since September, the epidemic in the United States has been on the rise again, because the strain has mutated again:
The dominant BA.
5 strain is being replaced
by three types of strains: BQ1.
1, BQ.
1 and XBB.
In general, due to the immune escape characteristics, the new crown virus is not infected once and once and for all, but may "challenge" the human body's defense line many times in the future, which brings multiple rounds of impact
.
/ 03 /
/ 03 /Epidemic concept stock, crisis and opportunity coexist
Epidemic concept stock, crisis and opportunity coexistIt is clear that in view of the likely ongoing impact of the epidemic, vaccines and therapeutics will become a long-term demand
.
Companies involved in the research and development of new crown vaccines and therapeutics are also likely to continue to benefit
.
However, due to the continuous mutation of strains, the logic on the new crown prevention and control market table will always change
.
For example, under the impact of variant strains, new crown vaccine companies will immediately pass if
they do not work hard.
At present, whether it is an inactivated vaccine, adenovirus vector vaccine or mRNA vaccine, the effectiveness of the Omicron strain is greatly reduced
.
Even after 10 weeks of three doses of Pfizer mRNA vaccine, the protective effect was still not high, reducing to 45.
7%.
You must know that in the face of the original strain of the virus, the effectiveness rate of a shot of mRNA vaccine is as high as 90%, which can be described as a cliff-like decline
.
In this regard, new crown vaccine companies need to constantly update and iterate new crown vaccines to catch up with the speed of
change of the virus.
Today, overseas vaccines have entered the era of
bivalent.
No 2-valent vaccine against Ocer Keron has been approved in China, but many domestic vaccines are designed or have broad-spectrum properties, such as ReCOV, Rico's recombinant protein vaccine ReCOV, which has shown good immunity to a number of Keron strains including BF.
7
.
For these players, if they can prove themselves in the end, they may have a chance to ride the waves
.
Let's talk about the new crown oral medicine
.
In theory, oral drugs are not afraid of mutations, no matter how the virus mutates, the impact site still exists, which can be called the "new crown terminator"
.
At present, the new crown oral drugs of domestic enterprises, including Simcere Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Junshi Biotechnology, Sinovac Pharmaceutical and other enterprises, are in the final sprint
.
However, the new crown oral medicine is not completely worry-free
.
In the long run, the efficacy and the corresponding scope of application will determine its ceiling
.
For example, although Pfizer's Paxlovid shows a protective effect of up to 89% for high-risk groups, it does not have a good treatment effect for high-risk groups with no underlying diseases or infection days of more than 5 days; Moreover, Paxlovid does not play a role
in preventing new crown infection.
Numerous factors also directly limit Paxlovid's upper limit
.
Of course, if domestic oral drugs can break these constraints, they are bound to have a deeper moat
.
Crises and opportunities often go hand in hand
.
In the face of the new crown virus that may continue to impact us, who can stand out from the domestic pharmaceutical companies?
