Forecast of the purchase and sale price of eggs in the fourth quarter

Introduction: with the slow recovery of laying hens and the gradual cooling of the climate, the number of eggs in various areas increased slightly, and the number of fresh eggs to Shanghai increased slightly in September Influenced by the relationship between supply and demand, the egg price gradually fell after surging The retail price of eggs dropped from 2.8 yuan per 500g at the beginning of the month to 2.62 yuan at the end of the month, down 0.18 yuan per 500g, down 6.4% The average price of the whole month is about 0.10 yuan lower than that of the previous month, a decrease of about 4%; in September, the purchase price of eggs from other provinces to Shanghai is 2.43 yuan (per 500g, the same below) and the retail price of eggs in the urban area is 2.68 yuan, a decrease of 3.8% and 3.9% respectively compared with the previous month, but an increase of 13.2% and 9.1% respectively compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 29.9% and 22.9% respectively compared with the annual average price last year That is to say, the price of eggs in September is lower than that in August, but higher than that in the same period last year At the beginning of October, the purchase price of eggs from other provinces in Shanghai has dropped to 2.20 yuan, down 0.17 yuan or 7.2% compared with that before the festival Looking forward to the price trend of eggs in the fourth quarter, it seems unlikely to rise sharply again, but it is also difficult to decline significantly According to some insiders in the production and marketing industry, it is expected that after the current price drops slightly, it will be in the trend of consolidation The egg price level in the whole quarter will be about 5% lower than that in the third quarter, but about 10% higher than that in the same period last year Current production and marketing situation and basic characteristics: first, although the stock of laying hens has been restored, the progress of the total supplementary stock is not fast In the first quarter of this year, the price of eggs fell to the lowest level in the past decade, and the professional chicken farmers suffered a serious loss From April, the price of eggs rebounded from a low point, and egg farmers began to get rid of losses and turn to low profits; after entering the third quarter, the price of eggs rose sharply, and the benefit of raising layers was very good As a result of many years of experience and lessons, most of the professional households take a more rational attitude towards the recovery of egg prices in various stages, and worry about being "punished" after "one boom" Therefore, although the laying hens' stock has increased, they are still cautious, the seedling feeding action is not big, and the filling action is not fast, which is conducive to the basic stability of egg prices, and to prevent the oversupply of supply and the excessive fall of egg prices 。 Second, feed prices are relatively stable in the near future, but the overall trend is rising In recent period, the price of corn in Dongtai, Haian and other egg producing areas in Northern Jiangsu is still around 1.28 yuan per kilogram, which is relatively stable However, this year's summer grain production has been reduced and early rice harvest has failed; due to the adjustment of planting structure and the impact of severe drought, the planting area in the northeast corn production area and the Central Plains corn production area has been greatly reduced, which will increase the expectation of corn price increase Feed is the main cost of eggs, for example, the price of corn and other feed is rising, and the price of eggs is difficult to fall sharply Third, the growth rate of egg sales in some cities slowed down In July and August this year, the retail price of eggs increased significantly, the sales volume of fresh eggs in the market decreased slightly, and the growth rate gradually fell In the first quarter of this year, the social retail sales of eggs in Shanghai increased by 1.7% over the same period of last year, 2.0% in the second quarter, and 0.4% in July and August The growth rate of egg sales slowed down, or even basically did not increase, and the increase of egg price lacked strong support 6fd (author:) to feed Weibo to: