Forecast of wheat market trend in Jiangsu Province

Introduction: at present, the trend of wheat market in Jiangsu Province is relatively stable, and there are many factors that affect the rise and fall of wheat prices, but basically maintain an equilibrium Favorable factors: first, the sown area will continue to be reduced in autumn and winter, and the gap between production and demand will continue to appear in Jiangsu Province in 2002 Based on the reduction of wheat production in 2000, China's wheat production decreased again in 2001 According to the information released by the National Bureau of statistics, the total output of summer grain in 2001 was 101.88 million tons, 4.91 million tons less than the previous year, a decrease of 4.6% The output in 2001 was the lowest since 1990 In terms of regions, except Anhui, Henan, Gansu and Shanxi provinces, the output of the main summer grain producing areas in China has increased compared with the previous year's output reduction, other provinces have decreased in varying degrees The reduction of summer grain production is mainly affected by the decrease of sowing area and drought According to the survey on the intention of sowing grain in autumn and winter conducted by the rural socio-economic survey team of the National Bureau of statistics in 600 counties of 26 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, nearly 50000 farmers were investigated In 2001, the area of sowing grain in autumn and winter stabilized and recovered In 2001, the area of sowing grain in autumn and winter was about 392 million mu, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year Among them, the winter wheat is about 378 million mu, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year After two years of significant reduction, the sown area of wheat has become stable or slightly increased According to a preliminary survey by the agricultural research team of Jiangsu Province, the area of grain sown in autumn and winter and harvested in summer in Jiangsu Province this year is 29.6199 million mu, a decrease of 8619 thousand mu or 2.8% compared with the actual area in 2001 Among them, wheat is still the main target of the reduction The area of Autumn Sown Wheat is 24.821 million mu, which is 871200 Mu less than that of last year, down 3.4%; the area of rapeseed sown continues to increase, with 10.4229 million mu of Autumn Sown Area, which is 207300 mu more than that of last year, up 2% For example, based on the historical year's summer grain yield of 618 Jin / mu and the maximum yield of 634 Jin / mu of wheat, this year's summer grain yield will reach 18.3 billion Jin and the total yield of wheat will reach 15.7 billion jin; if considering the decrease of farmers' input and per unit yield in recent years, this year's summer grain yield of Jiangsu Province will only reach 15.8 billion Jin and the total yield of wheat will reach 15.8 billion jin based on the year's summer grain yield of 534 Jin / mu and 545 Jin / mu of wheat 13 billion 500 million jin According to the analysis of the current growth situation, the weather condition is still good since sowing this year, and the growth condition of the crops in the field is good It is estimated that the per unit yield will be the same or slightly higher than that of last year At present, it is predicted that the per unit yield of summer grain will be 550-560 Jin / mu, and the wheat will be 560-570 Jin / mu, so the total yield of summer grain this year will be 16.3-16.6 billion jin, and the total yield of wheat will be 13.9-14.1 billion jin The summer grain of Jiangsu Province will still be Keep the situation of production less than demand 2 According to the official announcement of the meteorological department, this year will be another El Nino year Because of the impact of El Nino on the climate, it will often cause floods in the South and droughts in the north If the early plum appears in June, there will be rotten wheat field, which will have a great impact on the quantity and quality of wheat supply in Jiangsu Province this year If it affects Jiangsu Province at the end of June and July, it will bring flood disaster, but it has little effect on summer grain Climate factors deserve continued attention 3 In the face of the impact on agriculture after China's accession to the WTO, the state will still take various measures to reduce the impact on the domestic food market This year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO The quota of wheat tariff is 8.468 million tons The state-owned grain trade department (such as COFCO) has a certain proportion of import and export rights for each grain commodity The rest of the import and export will be allocated to the non-state-owned trade department If the export volume of the state-owned grain trade sector does not reach the proportion of the tariff quota allocated to the state sector in October each year, the rest will be redistributed to the non-state trade sector As the country will still adhere to the basic policy of controlling imports and expanding exports, its Chinese trade sector accounts for 90% of the wheat tariff quota, and the country will still have certain regulatory capacity Before October, the amount of imported grain will not be very large From January to April 2002, the imported wheat was only 360000 tons, which shows that the country's control is still effective, even if the state-owned trade imports more, it will also The impact can be mitigated by dumping Unfavorable factors: first, the quantity of national grain carry over inventory is still large, the situation of oversupply has not changed, and the supply pressure makes the space for the future market price to rise sharply very small Second, the effect of China's accession to the WTO on market psychological expectation Due to the impact of China's accession to the WTO, Anhui, Henan and other major grain producing provinces have introduced the policy of stock reduction and promotion, resulting in the end of last year's wheat consumption peak season is not prosperous, and the price has dropped At present, the market is still not optimistic about the market price trend after entering WTO, especially wheat At present, it is the slack season of flour consumption The manufacturers had not strong desire to purchase In addition, after entering WTO, the quality advantage of imported wheat is obvious Many flour enterprises have inquired about the supply of imported wheat For Jiangsu Province, due to the regional influence, the quality of real estate white wheat is difficult to compete with the North wheat, so the enterprises are basically losing money in selling wheat Third, the impact of the rotation of grain sales and reserves In the past two years, the treatment of aged grain and central and local grain reserves has an increasing impact on the market After each treatment, in fact, they occupy part of the market share, and the impact on the market price cannot be ignored In the first half of last year, the whole country found out the family background of Chenhua grain through warehouse clearing and inventory checking In the second half of last year, the state only handled a small part of Chenhua grain This year, the state will handle the stored Chenhua grain in batches, and it is expected that the quantity will not be small To sum up, from the perspective of supply and demand, the wheat market is weak in the future, and the price is unlikely to rise However, due to the fact that the current wheat sales price is basically the same as the inventory cost, there is not much room for decline (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: