Forecast of price situation of soybean meal and soybean oil in China after entering the Customs (12.19)

OA show ('918 '); it is expected that soybean and soybean meal will follow the same direction of the international market price after entering the customs, and soybean oil may go out of the trend that deviates from the international market From the current tariff levels of 3%, 5% and 13% respectively for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil, there is not much room for tariff reduction for soybeans and soybean meal However, the price difference between domestic and international soyoil is still large At present, the price of soyoil on cb0t in May is 16.50 cents / pound, which is equivalent to 3020 yuan / ton in RMB Based on the CIF price of 3250 yuan / ton, the relevant costs are as follows: ① tariff = 3250x13% = 42 2.5 yuan / ton ② value added tax = (3250 + 422.5x13% = 477.4 yuan / ton; ③ import agency fee = 3250x11% = 35.75 yuan / ton; ④ insurance fee = (3250 + 422.5 + 477.4) X3% = 12 45 yuan / ton; ⑤ interest and interest tax = 3250x2x6.5% / 12x1.03x1.43 = 40.98 yuan / ton; ⑥ loss = (3250 + 422.5 + 477.4) X3% = 12.45 yuan / ton; ⑦ port transfer fee: 50 yuan / ton; ⑧ commodity inspection fee: 15 yuan / ton; ⑨ domestic refining: 200 yuan / ton; the total price of the above items is about 4480 yuan / ton in the soybean oil plant, which is still relatively large compared with the domestic market After adding WT0, the price difference will be significantly reduced and tend to be reasonable At that time, there will be a change process of increasing the contribution rate of soybean meal gross profit and decreasing the contribution rate of soybean oil gross profit Recently, the price of soybean oil in the spot market has decreased from 6400 yuan / ton before the year to 5700 yuan / ton at present The price of soybean meal has increased from 1400 yuan / ton before the year to 1980 yuan / ton at present The price of soybean has increased from 1800 yuan / ton before the year to 2400 yuan / ton at present According to the above data, the gross profit contribution rate of soybean oil decreased from 52% to 44% and that of soybean meal increased from 48% to 56% before and after the price change based on the calculation of 18% and 15% of oil output rate of imported and domestic soybeans and 82% and 85% of meal output rate As a result, the demand for domestic soybeans with high meal yield is increasing Therefore, in this sense, the negative impact of entering the Customs on domestic soybean meal is not significant, and even in the international market, soybean meal remains strong, there is the possibility of rising instead of falling At present, soybean and soybean meal in the international market are rising strongly, and soybean oil is still hovering at the bottom In this case, the demand for crude soybean oil in the international market will increase in the next step, while in the first half of the year, the country's import index of crude soybean oil will not be released, so as to stimulate domestic soybean oil to go out of a period of recovery trend However, due to the psychological impact of entering the customs, there is still a certain space for soybean and soybean meal to decline in the next period, but on the whole, the year 2000 will be dominated by an increase China feed industry information network UAR (author:)