Forecast of feed and aquaculture development in 2013

Introduction: Feed: 7i9 in 2012, the biggest problem faced by feed industry is the instability of raw material price trend In recent years, the concentration of feed industry in China is in the trend of rapid increase, and the growth rate of leading enterprises is far higher than that of the industry It is predicted that in 2013, the driving factors for the increase of feed industry concentration are mainly the scale-up of the downstream aquaculture industry; the new competition mode promoted by scale-up aquaculture has broken the original pattern of regional division, and small enterprises are eliminated in the competition due to their weak R & D ability and ability to provide integrated services, and their market share is concentrated to large enterprises The first enterprise to change to B2B mode will win the first chance in the competition, and the large-scale feed enterprises will gradually transition to the enterprise group that provides comprehensive aquaculture services Therefore, it is expected that the feed industry will still maintain a high industry boom in 2013 Yan Kuiyou, director of 7i9 national animal husbandry general station and information center of China Feed Industry Association: according to the statistical data analysis of additive premixed feed in China in the past five years, it is found that the pig additive premixed feed with relatively high profit margin has been widely concerned by enterprises Powerful enterprise groups pay more attention to the input of formula technology innovation Some enterprises have begun to produce 6% and more than 6% proportion of pig additive premixed feed products According to the research, the main product of the premixed feed is 4% - 5% in the market Because the profit of the premixed feed is low, some enterprises even have negative profit 7i9 through research, we know that additive premixed feed will still have a good development space in 10 years First, in feed products, the added value of additive premixed feed is higher than that of compound feed and concentrated feed, and it is an important core part of feed products Second, in the next two to three years, the market prospect of additive premixed feed is still promising Third, with the rapid development of large-scale aquaculture, the number of scattered farmers has accelerated to exit The mode of "feed enterprise + scale breeder" will become one of the important patterns of feed breeding industry Under this mode, the terminal will use more than 4% (including 4%) of pig additive premixed feed to make its own feed, thus raising the market demand Fourth, with the introduction of the newly revised "Regulations on the administration of feed and feed additives" and relevant supporting policies and regulations, the threshold of the industry has been raised, so as to make more room for the development of powerful enterprises 7i9 corn: 7i9 in 2013, the domestic corn supply was generally loose, and the downstream consumption of feed and deep processing was relatively weak Moreover, there is still the possibility of batch import of international corn, and the space for corn to push up in the later stage will be restricted However, there is limited space for the price of corn to fall in Guangdong Despite the increase in the number of corn listed in Northeast China, the market price has not been significantly loosened It is expected that the arrival cost of corn in Northeast China will still run at a high level in the later period, which will support the local sales price In addition, since this month, the purchase price of corn in the North China Huanghuai region has been rising, and the price of corn in the southern sales region has been rising, which also helps to enhance the bullish psychology of both sides in Guangdong 7i9 wheat: 7i9 in 2013, the price center of strong wheat will move up slightly, and the overall pattern of wide fluctuation will be maintained, showing seasonal fluctuation The increase of winter wheat planting area and good growth situation in China laid a solid foundation for the increase of total output in 2013 If there is no problem in the later growth, the domestic wheat supply in 2013 may be better than that in 2012 However, due to the growing area of China, India and other major producers, the International Grain Council recently also said that the global wheat production in 2013 / 14 will pick up However, due to the reduction of production, the global ending inventory and inventory consumption ratio of wheat fell back to the 2008 level, and it is expected that the international wheat price will not fall sharply in 2013 7i9 soybean meal: in 2013, global soybean supply and demand speculation will still dominate the market It is expected that before the first quarter, the global soybean inventory will be strained due to the 2011 / 2012 soybean production reduction in the north and South America, and the soybean prices at home and abroad will remain relatively firm After the first quarter, with the listing of New South American beans, the global soybean market supply pattern will change Unless there are problems with weather and production in South America, the soybean market will mainly fluctuate downward after the first quarter We expect that the macro-economic situation in 2013 will remain stable as a whole, with the focus still on global weather and supply speculation 7i9 fish meal: 7i9 in 2013, the price of fish meal will be high, but for the fish meal industry, this is not a good start Due to the reduction of production in Peru, the import of Peruvian fish meal from China will be greatly reduced in the first half of 2013 At the same time, the fishing situation in the second stage of this season in Peru is not optimistic, and the completion of 400000 tons quota is worrying The fish meal of Southeast Asian countries and the fish meal of the United States will become an important force to make up the supply gap of Peru's fish meal However, due to the limitations of the export volume of China and the formula technology of domestic feed enterprises, the increased import of fish meal will not completely offset the impact of the decrease of Peru's supply As a whole, the supply of domestic imported fish meal in the first half of 2013 will still be in a tight state Due to many variable factors, the price trend of fish meal in the first half of 2013 is full of uncertainty Peru's new season quota will become an important watershed of price trend in 2013 In Peru's new fishing season, whether large quota or small quota, the market's expected strength generated by quota will break the tight balance of supply and demand maintained in the first quarter, and promote the price of fish meal to move in the direction of low resistance 7i9 therefore, in the first half of 2013, the overall demand for fish meal will be suppressed due to the recession of terminal breeding and the high price of fish meal The reduction of demand for imported fish meal by more than 30% is a predictable result With the rapid development of 7i9 in recent years, China has become one of the largest vitamin exporting countries in the world With the continuous development of feed industry, the overall demand for feed vitamins is increasing Only by providing users with specific, sensitive and operable methods can vitamin manufacturers establish the corporate image of industry leaders in the market To guide the consumer market in the right way and provide the service of Applied Technology with the attitude of professionals will be one of the important factors determining the market share of products Therefore, it is imperative to cultivate a professional marketing team or cooperate with dealers with the same functions The only way for enterprises to seek development is to reduce production cost and increase scale efficiency With the continuous enhancement of international intellectual property protection, the importance of this aspect is more prominent 7i9 chicken raising: 7i9 China's broiler industry has entered a period of steady growth The price of industrial chain is transmitted from bottom to top, generally from the change of chicken price to the upstream The level of chicken price affects the enthusiasm of broiler farmers, and the price of broiler also affects the price and demand of commercial chickens The fluctuation cycle of broiler breeding profit is usually as short as several months In each cycle from January 2008 to December 2011, the period of broiler breeding loss is no more than six weeks, From January to December 2012, the period of commercial white feather broiler's deficit reached 7 months The low level of broiler's breeding led to the low price of 0.8-2.3 yuan / feather for a long time The loss of commercial white feather broiler led to the serious elimination of parental white feather broiler and the loss of ancestral chicken The loss for several months has led to the withdrawal of farmers in all sectors In December, the "fast growing chicken" event intensified the withdrawal of farmers It is expected that the broiler industry chain will come out of a greater recovery in 2013 7i9 pig raising: 7i9 in early 2013, pork prices will rise slightly driven by Festival demand, and then continue to operate at a low level Therefore, it is expected that in 2013, the pork price will enter the rising cycle again, and the turning point of stop decline and recovery may appear in the second quarter Pig market supply will increase steadily in general Considering the regulatory role of the market, the growth rate of pig output is relatively slow After that, the supply of pigs will be stable From the perspective of market demand, pork consumption is mainly affected by seasonal factors The Price Bureau judges that the pattern of supply and demand balance of pig market will continue in the later period Considering the small peak of consumption during the Spring Festival, it is expected that pork prices will fall back again after the Spring Festival In the second quarter, the Price Bureau gradually bottoms out and turns around, forming a substantial rebound.