Forecast of domestic soybean meal price trend in the next two months

Introduction: the price of domestic soybean meal fell slightly on July 7, and the lowest transaction price in Shandong market was 2050 yuan / ton How to look at this change, I think it is not necessary to be too nervous We should firmly believe that the domestic soybean meal market will still maintain a high volatility pattern before the new soybean listing, and 2100 yuan tons may become the axis of volatility The main reasons for DRT are as follows: the overall supply of soybean meal in DRT will still be insufficient According to the latest market forecast, it can be concluded that the arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in August is about 1 million tons, plus 300000-400000 tons of domestic futures flowing into the spot market in the same period and 200000 tons of port soybeans carried forward in July (it is estimated that the port soybeans inventory at the end of July is 1 million tons, the author thinks the figure is on the high side Because the actual arrival volume in July is about 1.7 million tons, the domestic market soybean supply in July is mainly imported, and the consumption volume is only 700000-800000 tons, which is unbelievable; in addition, the port soybean inventory of 1 million tons is not consistent with the fact that many enterprises rush to buy warehouse receipts in Dalian), the domestic market soybean supply volume in August is about 1.5-1.6 million tons, compared with the domestic monthly average The demand for more than 1.3 million tons of soybean meal is not abundant As DRT entered August, soybean meal stocks (including those of feed manufacturers and oil plants) in the early market were nearly exhausted The supply of other meal (cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal) is not very sufficient The price of fish meal and meat bone meal is higher, and the impact on soybean meal is weakened At present, the overall price level of corn in China is relatively low, and the price in the southern market is still around 1120 yuan / ton From the perspective of comprehensive cost composition, it is beneficial to maintain the high price of soybean meal DRT, of course, another reason for maintaining this high volatility is cost determination In August, the use cost of soybeans in domestic oil plants was basically about 2350 yuan / ton Based on the processing cost of 120 yuan / ton and the processing profit of 50 yuan / ton in oil plants, the price of secondary soybean oil was maintained at 5100 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean meal should also be 2035 yuan / ton Affected by the rising foreign market, the CIF price of imported soybeans in September was basically more than 2300 yuan / ton With proper freight, the use cost of oil plants was not low Although the market prospect of DRT soybean and soybean meal is promising in the next two months, with the listing of domestic new soybean, the supply of soybean will recover rapidly, and the purchase price of new soybean will directly affect the price trend of soybean meal.