Forecast of domestic soybean meal price trend in August this year

Introduction: since the end of last week, the domestic soybean meal price has been rising rapidly As of August 4, the soybean meal price in Guangdong is 2080-2100 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2100 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is 2120-2130 yuan / ton, that in Guangxi is 2140 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 2260 yuan / ton, and that in Heilongjiang is 2050 yuan/ Tons, soybean meal increased 150-250 yuan / ton from two weeks ago, and the price increased about 10% The reasons for the increase of soybean meal price in the domestic market are as follows: 1 The rising import price of foreign soybeans (the price of imported soybeans reached 2360-2400 yuan / ton last week), which resulted in the rising cost of soybean meal in domestic oil plants and the increasing sales price of soybean meal in oil plants under the pressure of cost; 2 After January, the demand of domestic aquaculture and aquaculture for feed is increasing, and the sales of soybean meal is significantly improved compared with the previous period CD7 affects the price trend of domestic soybean meal in the later period: CD7 Positive Factor: CD7 1 The cost of imported soybean keeps rising The cost of domestic soybean meal will continue to rise CD7 2 Domestic soybean meal demand has been effectively improved Uncertainty of soybean arrival in March and August of CD7 CD7 4 Support of the national full tax rebate policy for soybean meal export CD7 5 The price trend of edible oil in the later period is expected to be stable According to the statistics of COFCO futures, since July 20, more than 200000 tons of crude soybean oil will be imported to Hong Kong, 90% of which is Argentine soybean oil, 100000 tons of South American soybean oil and 20000 tons of American soybean oil in August, plus a small amount of imports in June, a total of 40 tons in the near future Ten thousand tons of soybean oil are imported into China, and the inflow of these soybean oil into the market will play a good role in stabilizing the domestic soybean oil price Therefore, the domestic soybean oil price is unlikely to rise significantly CD7 negative factors: CD7 1 Domestic soybean meal prices have risen to a higher level in recent years CD7 2 Domestic soybean meal supply may increase in the near future CD7 3 Domestic oil plants increase sales at a high level Cd7iv Domestic feed processing plants have adopted soybean meal substitutes According to the above factors, the price of soybean meal in China is still influenced by a large number of factors, and the market is still uncertain However, the main factor influencing the price trend of soybean meal in the near future is the arrival of soybean in August, If the quantity of imported soybean meal in August is stable, the price of soybean meal will depend on the joint effect of other factors; if the quantity of imported soybean meal in August is small and the supply is short, the price of soybean meal in August will continue to maintain the current rising market CD7