Forecast of domestic grain price trend in the first half of 2003

Introduction: it is expected that from January to June 2003, the domestic corn price will show two stages That is, after a short period of decline, and then enter a slow rise stage CFJ January March: in the first stage, during this period, the domestic corn price will decrease periodically, and the decrease after the Spring Festival is greater than before the Spring Festival The main factors influencing the price change in this stage include four aspects First of all, the demand of domestic feed enterprises decreased after the Spring Festival After the centralized purchase before the Spring Festival, the corn stock of most domestic corn grain enterprises can be maintained to the production needs of the middle and late February, so February will be a period of downturn in domestic corn trading In March, the relative demand of China's aquaculture industry is off-season At this stage, the demand for corn from feed enterprises will decrease, which will affect the price of corn CFJ secondly, after the Spring Festival, the grain sales activities of farmers in Northeast China will not officially start until March However, at this stage, farmers in North China, Huang Huai Region start to sell grain, which can make up for the supply gap of farmers in Northeast China Although in 2002, the corn supply in Huang Huai Region of North China was insufficient due to the decrease of output and the increase of local consumption, but the shortage was regional As far as the whole region was concerned, the total corn supply was still greater than the total demand Therefore, after the Spring Festival, a part of the corn stored in the Huang Huai Region of North China due to farmers' reluctance to sell in the previous year was sold in the market at this stage, thus affecting the market price CFJ third, the gradual easing of the tension of railway transportation capacity in Northeast China will facilitate the entry of corn into northeast China, and will also be an important reason for the decline of corn prices CFJ fourth, from January to March, China's corn export will continue to maintain a high level, and the total export volume is expected to be 3.5 million tons, which will make the domestic corn price not fall sharply in the first quarter when the demand is reduced CFJ April June: in the second stage, during which domestic corn prices will rise CFJ first of all, the impact of the decline in the overall supply level of domestic corn on the price will be reflected in this stage, and become the main driving force for the price rise Since 1998, China began to adjust the planting structure, the corn yield has been affected by both the decrease of planting area and the natural disaster, which has led to the decrease of total corn supply and inventory level At the same time, it also leads to the change of spatial distribution of corn stock That is to say, more corn is stored in the northeast, the corn inventory in North China is reduced, and that in South China and southwest China is greatly reduced The characteristics of corn production and marketing areas are more obvious, which will increase the influence of corn in Northeast China on the national market Another problem worthy of attention is that after the opening of the corn market in Huanghuai area of North China, the stock of corn decreased significantly, and the influence of the stock of corn in the local grain sector on the market has been significantly reduced At the same time, the development of breeding industry and corn deep processing industry has also made the local transformation from "corn supply self-sufficient" to "corn supply insufficient" After the Spring Festival of CFJ, the amount of corn that farmers in the North China Huanghuai region can sell on the market will be relatively limited, which can not completely replace the corn in the northeast, so the local corn supply will also rely on the supply of the northeast In the end of 2002, there was an early entry of corn in Northeast China (in the normal year, corn in Northeast China will not enter the customs until March and April of the next year, i.e the last year's basic consumption of new corn in Huang Huai area of North China is completed, while in December 2002, corn in Northeast China will enter the customs In April, enterprises in Hebei, Shandong and other places began to purchase corn in Northeast China) The main factor is the increase of demand and decrease of supply in North China, Huang Huai Region CFJ second, after April, the demand for corn in the breeding industry will gradually increase, thus to a certain extent, driving the market price CFJ third, it is expected that in 2003, the corn planting area in China will decrease compared with the previous year, which will lead to the decrease of corn output and supply The reason is that the price of soybeans in Northeast China is rising, and the increase of farmers' income from planting soybeans will stimulate farmers to transfer part of their corn planting land to soybeans At the same time, this year, the country will expand the planting area of high oil soybeans in Northeast China, which will also reduce the corn planting area CFJ fourth, from January to June 2003, China's corn will continue to maintain a high level of export, which will also be an important driving force for prices Although it is predicted that China's corn export volume will be reduced in 2003 compared with 2002 due to the increase of major domestic production such as the United States and the improvement of international corn supply environment, China's government will continue to introduce measures to encourage corn export, and at the same time, corn purchase in Northeast China will be reduced in 2002 CfJ