Food prices will rise in the next two months, but there is limited space

Introduction: in recent weeks, the price of grain in Hunan market has been stable, with a slight decline Industry insiders estimate that in the next one or two months, with the arrival of the grain shortage season, grain prices may rise moderately, but there is very limited space to rise Lanxi rice city is the largest grain distribution center in Dongting Lake District, Hunan Province Since the price of grain began to rise in September last year, more than 90 rice factories here have been operating at full capacity A large number of merchants from Guangdong, Fujian and other sales areas come here to purchase But by the end of March, the rice market was cold Peng Youlin, the owner of rice Sanlian in Lanxi City, said that since late March, the number of merchants who come to the market to transfer rice has decreased significantly, and the rice is a little hard to sell According to the current situation of grain supply and demand and the market situation, the general view of the insiders in Hunan Province on the recent grain market is that there is no sign of grain price falling in the short term, but it is unlikely to continue to rise substantially The reasons are as follows: 1、 With the increase of grain price, especially affected by the good news such as the No.1 document of the central government, the reduction of agricultural tax and the direct grain supplement, the enthusiasm of farmers in the main grain production areas has been fully mobilized In Yuanjiang, Nanxian, Lixian and other places in Dongting Lake District, the reporter learned that this year's grain planting area has increased significantly compared with the previous years, and the land that has been devalued and abandoned for many years has become "hot" Some farmers who have been working outside all the year began to return to farming, and most farmers have changed from planting single season rice to double season rice in recent years Industry experts estimate that the total grain production will increase significantly this year 2、 Different from the first round of grain price hike in the second half of last year, the source of the second round of grain price hike after the Spring Festival is more focused on policy and market operation, rather than further widening the gap between supply and demand Last year, a large number of grain merchants in the sales area rushed to the production area to buy grain sources, which are now stored in the hands of middlemen in the sales area, far from being fully digested According to the analysis of some grain market people in Hunan Province, at present, most of the grain resources stored in the hands of grain merchants in the sales areas have not been digested It will take at least two months or even longer for the market to fully digest these grains 3、 The sale of aged grain and old stock grain in state-owned grain enterprises will also restrain the market grain price Recently, the grain reserves in Sichuan, Hunan and other places have been or are ready to start to change In addition, the state-owned grain storage and collection enterprises in Heilongjiang Province have recently sent 2.5 million tons of rice out of the warehouse, so it is unlikely that the circulation link will raise the price