[figure] feed market rule and market forecast in eastern China

Introduction: feed market rule and market forecast in eastern China feed market rule and market forecast in eastern China 7k3 (Part I: Jilin and Guangdong feed corn) 7k3 grain market of China Agricultural University Liu Shaobo Shi Youlong Ge Xiang Liu Nuo 7k3 is related to feed industry development and profit Therefore, to study the law of feed market is to analyze the trend of animal husbandry and the profit of feed industry In the past, the circulation of grain was controlled by the state, and the circulation channels were hindered by various reasons Therefore, the location price was very different Although the policy was relaxed after the reform, it was restricted by transportation, market conditions and infrastructure Therefore, there are certain differences in the prices of grain, feed and livestock products in different provinces and regions In order to study the market rules of the differences between the north and the south, the production areas and the sales areas in China, we choose Jilin and Guangdong to represent the eastern region of China Starting from 1994, we have 89 months and 30 provinces' data to study the existing rules, so as to serve the commercialization and regionalization of agriculture in China After China's accession to the WTO, it will provide reference for decision-making and understanding of the law of feed market in North and south 7k3-1 The price rule and current situation of corn in Jilin and Guangdong Province 7k3 corn is the basis of compound feed, corn price is related to the profit and loss of feed industry, and also related to the development of feed industry Therefore, the study of corn price is equal to the analysis of livestock production trends and feed industry profits In 1999, the national corn output was 128.986 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total grain output Due to the development of animal husbandry, corn has become the main food variety in China China's corn is mainly produced in liaojihei, Huanghuaihai and yunguichuan corn belts Jilin Province is the key production area of Heilongjiang Province In 1999, the output reached 16.926 million tons, accounting for 13.1% of the national output and 73.4% of the total grain output of Jilin Province In 1999, the total output of mixed fodder in Jilin was 1.352 million tons, only accounting for 2.44% of the national output of 5.527 million tons It can be seen that Jilin is a province that exports raw materials There is still considerable room for the development of feed industry In contrast to Jilin corn market, Guangdong is the province with the fastest development of feed industry and animal husbandry in recent years, and the most use of commercial corn Guangdong's corn output is only 725000 tons, accounting for 0.56% of the national output and 3.7% of the province's grain output In 1999, Guangdong's mixed feed output reached 7.318 million tons, accounting for 13.2% of the national mixed feed output Guangdong corn mainly depends on outsourcing The selection of these two models basically represents the production, use and circulation of feed corn and compound feed in eastern China 7k3 Jilin is the main corn production area and export province in China, so the price of corn is relatively cheap The average price for 89 months is 1.038 yuan per kilogram Guangdong's animal husbandry is developing rapidly, which consumes a large amount of corn, and is located in the southernmost part of China, with a long transportation distance Therefore, the price of corn is relatively high The same 89 month average price is 1.553 yuan per kilogram Compared with the national price, Jilin is 23.2% lower than the national average price of 1.279 yuan, and Guangdong is 21.4% higher than the national average price The national corn price is roughly between the two Their distribution is shown in the following figure: 7k3 7k3 from the graph, the three corn price curves have the following rules: 7k3 1 The trend and waveform of corn price curve in two provinces and regions are basically the same as that in the whole country, showing three parallel lines: Jilin corn price is the lowest; Guangdong is the highest, and the two curves are basically parallel lines It shows that the fluctuation and wave form of corn price in North and South provinces are consistent in China, but the baseline is different It seems that different provinces and regions should have different profit and loss points of corn price, but their fluctuation periods are still the same 7k32 The interval of the price curve of the two provinces reflects the transportation cost and price difference from Jilin to Guangdong Although there are slight differences in different periods, it is about 0.5 yuan Judging from the 89 month range, freight and price difference tend to shrink This reflects the characteristics of the commodity economy and will gradually form a unified national market 7k33 The waveform of the national curve is relatively gentle, and there are prominent points in the provinces and regions It shows that the production area has a sudden impact on the price with seasons, sales volume and inventory size The national average will offset prominent changes between provinces Of course, the most prominent point does not exclude the data error The fluctuation rule of corn price in Jilin and Guangdong is 7k32 The national corn price fluctuation standard is 1.20 yuan Provinces and regions can't stand up to a unified standard, but their fluctuation laws are consistent Feed corn price ratio reflects the profit situation of feed industry: 130% of pig feed corn price ratio; 135% of egg feed price ratio; 160% of broiler feed price ratio, which is the appropriate level of feed profit for many years It is beneficial to feed industry and feed industry Analysis of price fluctuation of 7k3 corn in China Table 1: 7k3 fluctuation direction 7k3 trough period 7k3 peak period 7k3 trough period 7k3 peak period 7k3 trough period Interval time 7k3 5 months 7k3 28 months 7k3 5 months 7k3 22 months 7k3 29 months 7k3 national average 7k3 1.080 7k3 1.551 7k3 1.149 7k3 1.293 7k3 1.063 7k3 Jilin maize average 7k3 0.000 7k3 1.286 7k3 0.866 7k3 1.068 7k3 0.825 7k3 The average maize price in Guangdong Province is 7k30.000 7k3 1.915 7k3 1.4087k3 1.499 7k3 1.3077k3 1 From the above table, it can be seen that there are two half cycles of maize price in 89 months of national statistics The price fluctuation of the province is consistent with that of the whole country There is no first trough in Jilin and Guangdong because of the short data in the first eight months Corn prices rose in 1995, with a 28 month peak of 1.551 yuan Higher than the international market price The average price of corn in Jilin and Guangdong is also the peak, and the price difference between the two provinces is about 0.4-0.5 yuan It basically reflects the North-South freight and profit volume The current cycle has lasted for 51 months: 1.293 yuan for the peak and 1.063 yuan for the trough, 29 months now The price ratio of pig feed corn, egg feed and chicken feed is 144%, 158% and 177% respectively The three indicators are all over 130%; 135% and 160% standards It shows that feed pricing is on the high side in this stage, which is beneficial to feed industry and unfavorable to livestock production At present, the ratio of pig feed to corn is 163 and 150%, egg feed to corn is 173 and 168%, chicken feed to corn is 193 and 170% The corn price ratio of Jilin is higher than that of Guangdong In particular, the feed of broilers was 23% higher than that of Guangdong It seems that Jilin has great potential to develop feed industry, and its profitability is stronger than other provinces Of course, both provinces are above the standard price comparison It shows that feed pricing is relatively high At present, corn price is a trough, which is beneficial to feed industry The operation of compound feed in both provinces should be profitable Even if Guangdong purchases raw materials, it can keep profits, which shows that the feed industry is very effective Of course, it also has something to do with the affordability of animal husbandry 7k3 review of corn price regulation in Jilin and Guangdong Province from live pig profit 7k3 1 Review of corn price trend from live pig profit 7k3 analysis of corn price fluctuation in China Table 2 7k3 fluctuation direction 7k3 trough period 7k3 peak period 7k3 trough period 7k3 peak period 7k3 trough period 7k3 interval time 7k3 5 months 7k3 28 months 7k3 5 months 7k3 22 months 7k3 29 months 7k3 National pig food price 7k3 6.2857k3 5.258 7k3 7.857 7k3 5.637 7k3 5.823 7k3 Jilin pig food price 7k3 0.000 7k3 5.840 7k3 9.747 7k3 6.444 7k3 6.857 7k3 Guangdong pig ration 7k3 0.000 7k3 5.182 7k3 7.244 7k3 5.487 7k3 5.510 7k3 2 It can be seen from the chart that, unlike the price, the profitability of pig raising is very close to that of Jilin, Guangdong or the whole country, and the price gap between pig and grain is very small Guangdong, in particular, is basically in line with the national curve Jilin is slightly higher than the whole country, and there is no profit and loss boundary point lower than 5.50 Although the profit of pig farming in Jilin fluctuated obviously, the more profit it made in the low corn price period At present, we should seize the main opportunity and strive for the maximum profit It seems that there is still considerable potential for the pig industry in Jilin Province and it should continue to develop According to the current corn cycle, the national pig food price ratio is 5.82, and pig raising exceeds the profit and loss threshold and can make profits The profitability of pig raising in Jilin and Guangdong is 6.857 and 5.510, and the price gap between pig and grain is far less than that of corn It shows that the profit of pig raising in grain producing area and grain purchasing area is not entirely determined by the price of corn From the graph point of view, the price gap between pig and grain is becoming smaller and smaller It shows that the profitability of different provinces is close to each other At present, there is no strong regional trend in pig breeding in the East Because North and South can make profits, no one can replace anyone Further analysis and observation are needed in the future 7k34 According to the pig profits of two provinces: will continue to increase the stock, expand the demand for corn, in theory, to promote the price of corn in Jilin and Guangdong is rising Feed industry should pay attention to price changes and adjust pricing in time The breeding industry should pay attention to adjust the stock at any time to prevent losses 7k3 7k3 4 review on the profit of laying hens the law of corn price in Jilin and Guangdong 7k3 1 Review on the trend of corn price from the profit of laying hens 7k3 analysis on the fluctuation of corn price in China Table 3 7k3 fluctuation direction 7k3 trough 7k3 peak 7k3 7k3 peak period 7k3 trough period 7k3 interval time 7k3 5 months 7k3 28 months 7k3 5 months 7k3 22 months 7k3 29 months 7k3 National egg grain price ratio: 7k3 6.214 7k3