Feed price goes up and meat price goes down

Introduction: from the price soared in the second half of last year to the profit of nearly 600 yuan per head at the beginning of this year, and now it is struggling to lose money, the pig breeding industry once again shows an unpredictable sharp rise and fall There are not a few small pig farmers like Luo Weiguang who are trapped in difficulties The market price of meat pigs remains at a low level Driven by the soaring feed such as soybean meal, the farmers have entered the critical point of profit and loss At present, pig feed is 17.33% higher than that at the beginning of the year, but the price of meat is 28.14% lower than that in July last year "A group of pigs that went out last month still made a profit of 30 or 40 yuan, but it is estimated that the next time they go out, they will definitely lose money." Luo Weiguang (pseudonym), a breeder who runs a pig farm in Baiyun District of Guangzhou city with a stock of about 300 pigs, said frankly that because feed prices have been rising in recent months, it's more money to raise one more pig in the pig farm From these two or three months on, Luo Weiguang decisively reduced the number of stocks to dozens of stocks, and temporarily stopped making up the stocks From the price skyrocketed in the second half of last year to the profit of nearly 600 yuan per head at the beginning of this year, and now it is struggling to lose money, the pig breeding industry once again shows an unpredictable skyrocketing and plummeting There are not a few small pig farmers like Luo Weiguang who are trapped in difficulties The market price of meat pigs remains at a low level Driven by the soaring feed such as soybean meal, the farmers have entered the critical point of profit and loss According to the comprehensive analysis of feed price change information released by sozhu.com last week this year, in the first week of this year, the price of soybean meal was only 3 23 yuan / kg, the lowest price since 2011 However, by the 20th week, its price had risen to 3.64 yuan / kg, the highest in the past two years, up 13.4% According to the monitoring data released by souzhu online weekly, the price ratio of pig to grain, which reflects the profitability of live pigs, has been below the break even line of 6:1 for 16 weeks, slightly dropping to 5.73:1 from 5.79:1 two weeks ago, down 31% compared with the same period last year Although the price of soybean meal fell a little in the next month or so, the feed price kept rising due to the drought in South America In the past four weeks, the price of soybean meal soared to a new high By July 20, the price had soared to 3.79 yuan / kg, up 17.33% from the beginning of the year On the other hand, feed prices such as corn and ingredients have been rising since the beginning of the year As of July 20, they have risen by 11.4% and 7.77% respectively Although feed costs have been rising, the market price of pigs from farmers has been falling Under the attack of "one high and one low", there is a huge contrast in the profits of farmers this year According to the statistics of souzhu.com, the soaring trend of meat price in the second half of last year began to slow down after 2012, and its price gradually fell from 17.2 yuan / kg in the first week to 13.52 yuan / kg in the 20th week, the lowest since January 2011 Although its price rose to 13.81 yuan / kg in the next two months, the price dropped 28.14% compared with July last year "In January this year, each pig can earn nearly 600 yuan, and then the profit margin has dropped to more than 400 yuan, more than 300 yuan, and more than 200 yuan In recent two months, it can only earn dozens of yuan, or even only 340 yuan." Another farmer with a pig farm similar to Luo Weiguang is worried that he will lose money next month Luo Weiguang calculated an account for the reporter According to the current feed and pig price, the price of buying a piglet is about 560-570 yuan, and the feed cost during that period is about 1300 yuan According to the current purchase price of 7.2 yuan / Jin in Guangzhou, the price of a 240 Jin pig is 1728 yuan, which is not equal to the sum of the cost of piglets plus the total cost of breeding "In fact, the more pigs are raised, the less they will lose." Luo Weiguang said "We still manage the pig farm by ourselves If the pig farm needs to be taken care of by others, the cost pressure will be greater." Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of China pig early warning network, said in an interview with Nandu that at present, the trend of farmers' losses has begun to spread across the country It's hard to predict the future market of pigs Many small and medium-sized farmers have to reduce the number of sows Some farmers have even given up raising pigs to work outside "There used to be 300 pigs in the farm, but now I've reduced them to dozens." Luo Weiguang pointed out that in his location, many small and medium-sized farmers have taken the same approach as him "Communicate with some experts and know that there is still a profit margin of more than 100 yuan for sows I am going to transfer to sows." Luo Weiguang said it was also a helpless move Feng Yonghui pointed out that due to the relatively high cost of feed in the south, the momentum of withdrawal is more obvious What worries Feng Yonghui even more is that in 2010, the industry lost money for as long as six months, and a large number of farmers withdrew from the market to set the stage for the sharp rise of meat price in 2011 "Be wary of a resurgence in 2010." It's an indisputable fact that the price lever is "disturbed" by the pressure of imported meat The farmers have entered the critical point of profit and loss to reduce the number of piglets and sows in stock In the second half of last year, when the price of pigs went out of a round of crazy market, the market of pigs in the second half of this year is more uncertain "In fact, the industry was optimistic about the mid-term price, but after March this year, the trend of pig market price is completely beyond expectations." In Feng Yonghui's view, this round of plummeting meat price is not so reasonable Feng Yonghui pointed out that in the past, the price trend was generally judged by the number of piglets and the market supply of pigs, but since the second quarter of this year, the market has changed abnormally in the short term "Affected by the slowdown in China's economic growth, market demand declined in the first half of the year, while the surge in low-cost imported meat hit the domestic market." According to Feng Yonghui, at present, the price of meat is down by more than 20% compared with last year, but the consumption of pork terminal in the first half of the year is only flat and slightly down, which is equivalent to the industry's "price reduction promotion", but the sales volume is not growing at the same time On the other hand, the import of pork doubled year on year According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, China imported 146000 tons of pork, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year; the value of pork was 290 million US dollars, an increase of 2.5 times; the average import price was 1967.8 US dollars per ton, an increase of 55 5% "the price of imported pork is 1 / 3 lower than the price of domestic pork, and the price of pig ears and pig skin is 50%." such price advantage is undoubtedly equivalent to "making worse" for the current depressed market "Now the price of pork continues to be low, why does the country import a large number of pork to impact the price?" One insider expressed his doubts in this way According to the law that after the price of pig industry plummeted, a large number of farmers withdrew, the market supply decreased and then stimulated the price rebound, does this mean that the market industry will recover in the second half of the year? "The number of piglets on hand increased in April, which means that the total number of pigs on the market will also increase in September, but there is still a possibility that prices will fall." In Feng Yonghui's view, whether the price of meat can be corrected in the second half of the year or more depends on whether the government controls the import of imported meat How does the strange circle of 8dz rise and fall end? The industry called for the reform of the sow breeding subsidy policy "I would rather make only 100 yuan per pig all the year round than make a big profit and a big loss every year like now." In the interview, many farmers are deeply helpless about the strange circle of "one year up, one year flat, one year down" in pig breeding industry Qian Yuhua (pseudonym), an executive of a large breeding enterprise, told reporters that from 1995 to 2011, there were six cycles in pig breeding industry, with an average of 32 months each In its view, due to the low level of education, lack of information channels and other reasons, the number of individual pig farmers is always based on the price judgment of the previous period When the market price is high, they will flock to the market, when the price drops, they will withdraw on a large scale, resulting in a sharp rise and fall in the number of pig stocks, resulting in cyclical fluctuations in pig meat production, supply and price, and a vicious cycle However, in Qian Yuhua's view, the formation of this strange circle is not only due to the asymmetric information of individual households, but also the responsibility of government regulation "When the price of pigs is good, the government started to subsidize the breeding of sows, so that a large number of enterprises, including some enterprises without breeding technology before, have come in, and the number of pig stocks has increased dramatically." In Qian's view, this also means that the next wave of low tide in the industry will come soon "In 2007 and 2008, the government guided a lot of external funds to enter the industry through breeding subsidies, and the scale of the industry expanded rapidly However, it also led to losses in the breeding industry in 2009 and 2010 In July 2011, the government also stimulated the market through subsidies because of the alarming rise of pig prices As a result, the price of meat fell sharply in June this year." Feng Yonghui pointed out Qian Yuhua said that in 2007 and 2008, after the huge increase in the number of government subsidized pigs on the market, a chain reaction was that in the second quarter of 2010, the price of pigs on the market was once as low as more than 4 yuan / Jin "At that time, many retail investors withdrew and the pig market was in short supply The imbalance between supply and demand is an important reason for the surge in pork prices in the second half of 2011 " Feng Yonghui believes that the government's regulation needs to find the right time and accurate data support "One of the most important factors in the rapid rise and fall of pork prices is the epidemic Therefore, the government should support the production link of the industrial chain, and improve the disease prevention and control technology and pig farm facilities of farmers " However, Qian Yuhua suggested that the subsidy should be given to enterprises with technology, resources, land and other hardware to promote the development of large-scale breeding, so that the supply of pigs would be more stable The more 8dz pigs are raised, the more losses Luo Weiguang has made to the reporter According to the current feed and pork market price, the price of buying a piglet is about 560-570 yuan, and the price of raising a piglet to 230-240 Jin is about 1300yuan According to the current purchase price of 7.2 yuan / Jin in Guangzhou, the price of a 240 Jin pig is 1728 yuan, which is not equal to the sum of the cost of piglets plus the total cost of breeding.