Feed industry facing another life and death?

Introduction: in view of the influx of imported soybeans since this year and the influx of imported soybeans since this year, there are various signs that China will gradually tighten the soybean import gate with the arrival of the domestic soybean harvest and listing season in September Industry authorities pointed out that the reduction of soybean imports will undoubtedly produce domino effect, directly affecting the supply of soybean meal and feed production The feed industry of Guangdong Province will face another life and death disaster after the SARS attack in the first half of the year According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in the first seven months of this year, China's total soybean imports reached 12.27 million tons, an increase of 146.9% year-on-year, which has exceeded the annual soybean imports last year In Guangdong, 1.1383 million tons of soybeans were imported in the first half of this year, amounting to US $283 million, a substantial increase of 2.45 times and 2.03 times respectively on a year-on-year basis However, some authoritative organizations estimate that if there is no restriction on the import of soybeans in China this year, it will reach more than 18 million tons, a record high V2V In the face of the flood of imported soybeans, with a large number of domestic soybeans to be harvested and listed in September, there are various signs that China will gradually tighten the gate of soybeans import On the one hand, the temporary measures of genetically modified regulations will be extended to April 20 next year, and it is required that suppliers to sell soybeans arriving after September 20 to China must apply for new approval documents, and local importers must also apply for new approval documents Please prove with a new logo For the importers who hold the old approval documents, the shipment time must be guaranteed to arrive before September 20, otherwise the documents will be invalid For the sake of insurance, most importers will postpone the shipment time to October later On the other hand, the state will strengthen the inspection and Quarantine of imported soybeans, appropriately slow down the speed of license issuance, and periodically regulate the speed of soybean import In August, due to the serious quality problems of soybeans sold to China in the United States and South America, AQSIQ decided to cancel the qualifications of six international traders to ship soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina to China in different degrees, At the same time, we are ready to punish the soybean ships that have not completed the formalities According to the analysis of some traders, the speed of granting soybean import licenses will slow down in September and even in the fourth quarter of this year The gate of V2V import soybean is tightened Although a large number of domestic soybeans are listed in September, the output of domestic soybeans has been hovering between 15 million tons and 17 million tons in recent years, which is difficult to meet the huge market demand Domestic soybean crushing enterprises mostly rely on imported soybeans In Guangdong, 95% of the oil plants rely on imported soybeans for production The direct impact of the insufficient start-up of oil plants is the tight supply of soybean meal, the main raw material for feed production According to the information provided by South China Information Department of information center of China Feed Industry Association, by August 25, eight new and old oil plants in Guangdong Province had been fully exploited Now, the daily production capacity of soybean meal in Guangdong Province is about 13600 tons, while the daily consumption of soybean meal in Guangdong Province is about 7300 tons Therefore, at present, the supply of soybean meal is still sufficient V2V, however, by the middle of September, the follow-up soybean of the oil factory has not been settled clearly, so it is bound to slow down the pressing speed At that time, the supply of soybean meal market will be tight, and the price will be raised From the beginning of August to the middle of August, the market price of soybean meal continued to rise, from 2180 yuan / ton to 2320 yuan / ton Although it fell down, it rose immediately after entering September On September 3, the transaction price has risen to 2250 yuan / ton, higher than the industry expected Due to the shortage of V2V soybean meal and the pressure of rising feed production cost, Guangdong feed manufacturers have begun to show concern Chen Junhai, general manager of V2V Shenzhen jinxinnong Feed Co., Ltd., said yesterday in an interview that the price of soybean meal would definitely rise Yan jiongjun, director of South China Information Department of information center of China Feed Industry Association, said that since this year, soybean meal market demand is very large, and has been in short supply The profit per ton of soybean meal is as high as 50-300 yuan, and there is no bargaining space between feed factory and oil factory From now to the end of the year, there will be three possibilities for soybean meal price trend: first, the state will tighten the soybean import policy, the oil factories will be short of beans, the soybean meal price will rise sharply, and even may appear the rare high price of 2700 yuan / ton last year; second, the state will maintain the status quo of soybean import, intermittent beans will come in, and the price will not be higher than 2300 yuan / ton; third, through cooperation with foreign countries According to the negotiation, if the country relaxes soybean import, the price will hover between 2150-2200 yuan / ton At present, there are many uncertain factors in the price trend of soybean meal According to the information from the animal husbandry and Veterinary Office of the Provincial Department of agriculture, because of the impact of SARS, feed enterprises generally reflect that the first half of this year is the worst half of the year in terms of production efficiency The production cost of V2V feed is facing the pressure of rising The relevant people of the provincial feed industry association believe that enterprises do not need to worry about this Although the price of soybean meal may rise, the benefits of animal husbandry will resolve this risk After SARS, the animal husbandry production in our province has gradually improved, and the market demand is strong In the second half of the year, there are mid autumn festival, national day and other festivals, which will drive the consumption of livestock and poultry products, improve the animal husbandry, and improve the feed sales It is expected that feed production will be more stable in the second half of the year, and the overall experience will be better than that in the first half of the year In addition, the provincial feed industry association is also stepping up the organization of soybean meal and other sources in the northeast, in order to alleviate the pressure of feed enterprises in Guangdong Enterprises should also practice their internal skills and strictly control production costs Will V2V animal husbandry really solve the risk? Yan jiongjun is not sure, but he said that the cost of feed production is high, but the price of feed products will not be increased At present, the market competition is extremely fierce, and if the price is high, the market share may be lost Whether the V2V feed industry will encounter another life and death disaster remains to be seen V2V