Feed consumption pushes up the price and the qualified grain source is insufficient

Introduction: due to the continuous growth of domestic feed consumption, wheat feed consumption has increased dramatically According to the introduction of relevant feed enterprises, the current proportion of wheat replacing corn has reached 60%, and the highest proportion of duck feed and part of pig feed has reached 100% Twin feed company, a large domestic feed manufacturer, launched the all wheat medium pig feed, which directly lowered the price of pig feed by about 100 yuan / ton, which made other feed manufacturers follow up Since the new wheat came into the market last year, the price difference between corn and wheat has expanded to about 500 yuan / ton How much is the consumption of wheat feed in 2011 / 2012? There are different versions in the market, some say more than 20 million tons, some say more than 30 million tons, and some say more than 40 million tons There is a big data that is basically clear In 2011 / 2012, China's wheat harvest was really big The official data is 118 million tons, which may be more In addition, about 15 million tons of minimum protected price wheat were auctioned, all of which were consumed In recent years, the per capita consumption of wheat in China has decreased slightly year by year, and the total consumption of wheat rations has not increased much Generally, the total demand of wheat in a year is about 108 million tons, the total output is about 115 million tons, and there will be a surplus of several million tons every year By 2011 / 2012, the opening inventory was close to 40 million tons (except for the National Grain Reserve, which was purchased at the lowest protection price) "Sufficient inventory, supply over demand" has become a habitual expression of the wheat market for many years This is the fundamental reason that the price of domestic wheat futures will not follow the international market in the past Therefore, in the price comparison of rice, wheat and corn, wheat gradually becomes a price depression, and the price of wheat is lower than that of corn and rice Due to the continuous growth of domestic feed consumption, wheat feed consumption has increased dramatically According to the introduction of relevant feed enterprises, the current proportion of wheat replacing corn has reached 60%, and the highest proportion of duck feed and part of pig feed has reached 100% Twin feed company, a large domestic feed manufacturer, launched the all wheat medium pig feed, which directly lowered the price of pig feed by about 100 yuan / ton, which made other feed manufacturers follow up Last year, the consumption of wheat feed mainly appeared in the south, while the main wheat producing areas in the north, such as Henan, Shandong and Hebei, were rare After the new wheat came into the market this year, feed enterprises in the main wheat producing areas in the north have purchased wheat for feed production It has been reported that there are now more than 5 million tons of wheat replacing corn every month Such a large-scale consumption of wheat feed will be unsustainable As long as the price of corn does not fall sharply, it is inevitable that the price of wheat will rise in the future If the market information fails and the amount of wheat substitution is too large, the market ration will be insufficient, and the future wheat price may be much higher than the corn price Of course, changes in the market can not be achieved overnight, after all, there are about 20 million tons of surplus inventory purchased at the lowest protection price this year The author has been dealing with the wheat market for more than ten years and has not been very interested in the subject of wheat yield reduction in China In my opinion, on the one hand, the occasional production reduction of several million tons will not affect the overall situation; on the other hand, the wheat planting area in China has a large span from north to south, and the artificial irrigation conditions in the core production area are good, and the impact of natural disasters on the overall situation is small Since late May, a large number of news of wheat disaster and yield reduction have been seen in the media In the first ten days of June, the author went to the traditional wheat high-yield areas of Henan and Shandong Province for a field trip What I heard and witnessed was that most of the yield per mu of last year was more than 1000 Jin, and this year it is basically 700-800 Jin The second and third grades of wheat were mainly sampled, and the imperfect grains were on the high side The normal years in these areas were mainly the first grade wheat From the later information, we can see that the disaster situation in the northern part of Henan and the central and southern part of Shandong may be lighter than that in the southern part of Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places, and more serious than that in Hebei In short, this year's diseases and insect pests on the main wheat producing areas are very rare In addition to adverse weather conditions, the subsidy policies for wheat varieties and "one spray, Three Preventions" need to be improved The reduction of unit yield in the disaster area will inevitably reduce the total supply of the market In addition, some farmers are reluctant to sell, and some wheat scab seeds are more than 10%, which can not be used as rations and feed Therefore, in the later stage, the market may face the situation that the supply of qualified grain exceeds the demand It may be necessary to use the national reserve grain or deal with it through import Rare diseases and insect pests and the current situation of people and pigs competing for food are superimposed together, and the later wheat market is expected.