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768 billion tons, revised down for the second consecutive month, down 5.
9 million tons month-on-month, down 1.
7%
year-on-year.
[Grain production]
The downward revision of coarse grain production was the main reason for the downward revision of
the October cereal production forecast.
World coarse grain production is forecast at 1.
468 billion mt in 2022, down 14.
3 million mt month-on-month, or 2.
8%
y-o-y, as bad weather continues to dampen yield prospects in major producing countries.
the October cereal production forecast.
World coarse grain production is forecast at 1.
468 billion mt in 2022, down 14.
3 million mt month-on-month, or 2.
8%
y-o-y, as bad weather continues to dampen yield prospects in major producing countries.
The month-on-month downward revision was mainly due to lower US corn production forecasts, on the one hand, the lack of rainfall led to lower corn yield forecasts; On the other hand, the country's corn acreage was also revised
slightly downward.
Maize production forecasts for the European Union and the Republic of Moldova have also been revised downward, albeit to a lesser extent, mainly due to drier than usual climates further affecting yield forecasts
.
According to Brazil's recently released official data, the corn production forecast has been revised down slightly, but the output remains at the country's all-time high.
The global barley production forecast has been revised upwards by 2.
5 million tonnes, partially offsetting the downward revision of maize production, mainly due to the positive outlook for Russian barley production, which is now forecast at 147.
9 million tonnes, up 1.
7%
year-on-year.
Ukraine's coarse grain production forecast is unchanged from the previous month at 33.
1 million mt, down 38%
year-on-year.
slightly downward.
Maize production forecasts for the European Union and the Republic of Moldova have also been revised downward, albeit to a lesser extent, mainly due to drier than usual climates further affecting yield forecasts
.
According to Brazil's recently released official data, the corn production forecast has been revised down slightly, but the output remains at the country's all-time high.
The global barley production forecast has been revised upwards by 2.
5 million tonnes, partially offsetting the downward revision of maize production, mainly due to the positive outlook for Russian barley production, which is now forecast at 147.
9 million tonnes, up 1.
7%
year-on-year.
Ukraine's coarse grain production forecast is unchanged from the previous month at 33.
1 million mt, down 38%
year-on-year.
World rice production in 2022 is forecast to fall by 1.
7 million tonnes month-on-month to 512.
8 million tonnes (in milled rice) in October, down 2.
4% from the all-time high in 2021 but still above average; The month-on-month downward revision was mainly due to a further reduction in China's production forecast, as persistent summer drought and high temperatures affected crop growth in the Yangtze River basin; In addition, recent severe flooding has dampened production in Pakistan; Rice production forecasts for other countries have also been revised
down slightly.
Although Iran, Thailand and some West African countries have raised their production forecasts, they have not been able to reverse the downward trend
in rice production overall.
7 million tonnes month-on-month to 512.
8 million tonnes (in milled rice) in October, down 2.
4% from the all-time high in 2021 but still above average; The month-on-month downward revision was mainly due to a further reduction in China's production forecast, as persistent summer drought and high temperatures affected crop growth in the Yangtze River basin; In addition, recent severe flooding has dampened production in Pakistan; Rice production forecasts for other countries have also been revised
down slightly.
Although Iran, Thailand and some West African countries have raised their production forecasts, they have not been able to reverse the downward trend
in rice production overall.
Contrary to the trend in coarse grain and rice production, the October forecast for global wheat production in 2022 was revised up by 10.
2 million mt month-on-month to 787.
2 million mt, up 1.
0% y-o-y and a record high
.
Among them, the yield prospects of the EU soft wheat crop improved, so the harvest was better than expected; Russia, supported by favorable weather conditions, contributed the lion's share of the October upward revision
.
In Australia, good soil moisture at the time of planting and favorable rainfall forecasts boosted production outlooks, with the country's wheat production expected to be the second highest ever in 2022, after 2021
.
Therefore, despite a slight deterioration in crop conditions due to insufficient rainfall in Argentina, a slight downward revision to Argentina's wheat yield forecast will not affect the overall trend
in October.
In addition, Ukraine's October wheat production forecast remains stuck at 20 million tons, down 38%
from the previous year.
2 million mt month-on-month to 787.
2 million mt, up 1.
0% y-o-y and a record high
.
Among them, the yield prospects of the EU soft wheat crop improved, so the harvest was better than expected; Russia, supported by favorable weather conditions, contributed the lion's share of the October upward revision
.
In Australia, good soil moisture at the time of planting and favorable rainfall forecasts boosted production outlooks, with the country's wheat production expected to be the second highest ever in 2022, after 2021
.
Therefore, despite a slight deterioration in crop conditions due to insufficient rainfall in Argentina, a slight downward revision to Argentina's wheat yield forecast will not affect the overall trend
in October.
In addition, Ukraine's October wheat production forecast remains stuck at 20 million tons, down 38%
from the previous year.
[Grain consumption]
The forecast for world cereal consumption in 2022/2023 is 2,784 million tonnes, down by 8.
7 million tonnes, down 0.
5%
from 2021/2022.
In line with production forecasts, the main factor in October's downward revision was also coarse
grains.
The forecast for coarse grain consumption in October was revised down by 6.
4 million mt to 1.
491 billion tonnes, down 0.
6% from the previous year, almost entirely due to lower feed use, but this is also expected
.
Maize feed use has declined significantly, especially in the EU and the US, where supply constraints have been led to reduced domestic harvests; Canada's corn feed use declined last year due to high levels of other cereals due to tight supplies of other cereals
.
In addition, the barley feed usage forecast for 2022/2023 is also declining, mainly due to the contraction
of feed use due to lower production in Morocco.
In sorghum, expectations of a decline in feed use in China have led to downward revisions
to global sorghum feed forecasts.
FAO's forecast for world rice consumption in 2022/2023 was revised down by 3.
6 million tonnes from September to 518.
6 million tonnes, 0.
7% less than the peak in 2021/2022, implying that non-edible consumption of rice has fallen from the high levels of the previous year, while edible consumption has roughly kept pace
with population growth rates 。 Wheat consumption forecast for 2022/2023 is 774 million mt, approaching 2021/2022 levels and revised up 1.
3 million mt month-on-month as higher than previously expected
wheat feed use in the region as tighter maize supplies and higher prices in the EU shift in feed demand to wheat.
7 million tonnes, down 0.
5%
from 2021/2022.
In line with production forecasts, the main factor in October's downward revision was also coarse
grains.
The forecast for coarse grain consumption in October was revised down by 6.
4 million mt to 1.
491 billion tonnes, down 0.
6% from the previous year, almost entirely due to lower feed use, but this is also expected
.
Maize feed use has declined significantly, especially in the EU and the US, where supply constraints have been led to reduced domestic harvests; Canada's corn feed use declined last year due to high levels of other cereals due to tight supplies of other cereals
.
In addition, the barley feed usage forecast for 2022/2023 is also declining, mainly due to the contraction
of feed use due to lower production in Morocco.
In sorghum, expectations of a decline in feed use in China have led to downward revisions
to global sorghum feed forecasts.
FAO's forecast for world rice consumption in 2022/2023 was revised down by 3.
6 million tonnes from September to 518.
6 million tonnes, 0.
7% less than the peak in 2021/2022, implying that non-edible consumption of rice has fallen from the high levels of the previous year, while edible consumption has roughly kept pace
with population growth rates 。 Wheat consumption forecast for 2022/2023 is 774 million mt, approaching 2021/2022 levels and revised up 1.
3 million mt month-on-month as higher than previously expected
wheat feed use in the region as tighter maize supplies and higher prices in the EU shift in feed demand to wheat.
[Grain Stocks]
World cereal stocks forecast for the end of the 2023 season of 848 million mt are down 1.
6%
from the start of the period, despite an upward revision of 2.
9 million mt month-on-month.
Based on the latest stocks and consumption, the ratio of global cereal stocks to consumption in 2022/2023 was 29.
7%, down from 31.
0% in 2021/2022, but still at historically high levels
.
The downward revision to the world cereal stocks forecast is mainly due to the expected decline in global coarse grain stocks by 5.
4 percent from initial levels to 352 million tonnes, down 2.
9 million mt
month-on-month.
Global maize stocks are expected to contract sharply by 5.
3% in 2022/2023, due to lower production in the EU and the US, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in maize stocks; At the same time, the expected increase in China's domestic corn feed use has also affected the country's corn stocks
.
Since September, FAO has raised its forecast for world rice stocks at the end of the 2022/2023 marketing season by 2.
1 million tonnes to 193.
1 million tonnes, down 1.
8% from the all-time high in 2021/2022 but still the third highest level
on record.
Rice stocks in China and India are expected to grow, supporting global rice stocks to remain high
.
6%
from the start of the period, despite an upward revision of 2.
9 million mt month-on-month.
Based on the latest stocks and consumption, the ratio of global cereal stocks to consumption in 2022/2023 was 29.
7%, down from 31.
0% in 2021/2022, but still at historically high levels
.
The downward revision to the world cereal stocks forecast is mainly due to the expected decline in global coarse grain stocks by 5.
4 percent from initial levels to 352 million tonnes, down 2.
9 million mt
month-on-month.
Global maize stocks are expected to contract sharply by 5.
3% in 2022/2023, due to lower production in the EU and the US, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in maize stocks; At the same time, the expected increase in China's domestic corn feed use has also affected the country's corn stocks
.
Since September, FAO has raised its forecast for world rice stocks at the end of the 2022/2023 marketing season by 2.
1 million tonnes to 193.
1 million tonnes, down 1.
8% from the all-time high in 2021/2022 but still the third highest level
on record.
Rice stocks in China and India are expected to grow, supporting global rice stocks to remain high
.
The outlook for other regions is less promising, with total rice stocks in all other countries falling 8.
2 percent from the previous year to 50.
1 million tonnes, reaching a three-year low
.
In contrast to coarse grains and rice, global wheat stocks are expected to rise 3.
2% from opening levels to 303 million mt, up 3.
6 million mt
month-on-month.
Among them, Russia will benefit from good wheat production prospects, and wheat stocks will increase; There are also Canada, China and Ukraine, where most of the growth in global wheat stocks has been concentrated
.
2 percent from the previous year to 50.
1 million tonnes, reaching a three-year low
.
In contrast to coarse grains and rice, global wheat stocks are expected to rise 3.
2% from opening levels to 303 million mt, up 3.
6 million mt
month-on-month.
Among them, Russia will benefit from good wheat production prospects, and wheat stocks will increase; There are also Canada, China and Ukraine, where most of the growth in global wheat stocks has been concentrated
.
[Grain Trade]
FAO's forecast for world cereal trade in 2022/2023 is 467 million tonnes, down 2.
3 million tonnes month-on-month and down 2.
4% from 2021/2022, with all staple cereal volumes expected to contract.
The 2022/2023 coarse grain trade volume forecast is 222 million tonnes, down 3.
0% from 2021/2022 and basically unchanged
from the previous month's forecast.
Global maize trade is expected to decline slightly (0.
5%) from 2021/2022 levels, mainly reflecting contraction in China's import demand and lower
exports from Argentina, Ukraine and the United States.
The lower corn harvest is partly responsible for the decline in exports forecasts for the three major exporters, with inflation controls in Argentina, disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and price disadvantages due to a strong dollar also dampening exports
, respectively.
In barley and sorghum, lower import demand from China and lower barley purchases from Turkey due to higher production contributed to lower forecasts for global barley and sorghum trade in 2022/2023, down 13.
5% and 14.
0%
respectively from 2021/2022.
3 million tonnes month-on-month and down 2.
4% from 2021/2022, with all staple cereal volumes expected to contract.
The 2022/2023 coarse grain trade volume forecast is 222 million tonnes, down 3.
0% from 2021/2022 and basically unchanged
from the previous month's forecast.
Global maize trade is expected to decline slightly (0.
5%) from 2021/2022 levels, mainly reflecting contraction in China's import demand and lower
exports from Argentina, Ukraine and the United States.
The lower corn harvest is partly responsible for the decline in exports forecasts for the three major exporters, with inflation controls in Argentina, disruption from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and price disadvantages due to a strong dollar also dampening exports
, respectively.
In barley and sorghum, lower import demand from China and lower barley purchases from Turkey due to higher production contributed to lower forecasts for global barley and sorghum trade in 2022/2023, down 13.
5% and 14.
0%
respectively from 2021/2022.
In terms of exports, lower production is expected to lead to a contraction in sorghum exports from the United States and barley exports from Argentina and Ukraine, while Ukraine's export capacity is limited
due to the impact of the war.
The latest forecast for world wheat trade in 2022/2023 is 192 million mt, essentially unchanged from the previous month and down 1.
9 percent
from the record level in 2021/2022.
Among them, wheat exports from Argentina, India and Ukraine in particular fell from the previous season's level, and although Canada, the European Union and Russia increased their exports, driven by ample supplies, they were not enough to reverse the decline
.
From the perspective of importing countries, increased production will lead to lower
purchases from China, Iran and Kazakhstan.
International rice trade forecast for 2023 is 53 million tonnes, slightly downward, down 1.
4 percent from the 2022 forecast, mainly reflecting tighter export supplies and uncertainties in
importing countries' trade policies and currency trends.
due to the impact of the war.
The latest forecast for world wheat trade in 2022/2023 is 192 million mt, essentially unchanged from the previous month and down 1.
9 percent
from the record level in 2021/2022.
Among them, wheat exports from Argentina, India and Ukraine in particular fell from the previous season's level, and although Canada, the European Union and Russia increased their exports, driven by ample supplies, they were not enough to reverse the decline
.
From the perspective of importing countries, increased production will lead to lower
purchases from China, Iran and Kazakhstan.
International rice trade forecast for 2023 is 53 million tonnes, slightly downward, down 1.
4 percent from the 2022 forecast, mainly reflecting tighter export supplies and uncertainties in
importing countries' trade policies and currency trends.
[FAO Price Index]
The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 147.
8 points in September, up 2.
2 points (1.
5 percent) from September and 14.
9 points (11.
2 percent)
above the corresponding month last year.
International wheat prices rebounded 2.
2 percent in September as uncertainty about whether the Black Sea Cereals Initiative could be extended after November intensified, affecting Ukraine's export capacity
.
In addition, market concerns about drought conditions in Argentina and the United States, while increased wheat demand within the EU due to tight corn supplies, while the pace of EU exports accelerated, further supported wheat prices
.
International coarse grain prices rose slightly again (+0.
4%) in September, but the trend varied across the various products
.
Among them, world maize prices were basically stable (+0.
2%)
.
The strength of the US dollar offset supply-side pressure
on corn prices, despite a weaker outlook for US and EU production, combined with uncertainty about Ukrainian exports.
International barley prices declined by 3.
0%, mainly reflecting improved harvest prospects in Australia and Russia; World sorghum prices rose 13.
2 percent due to lower
production prospects in the United States.
8 points in September, up 2.
2 points (1.
5 percent) from September and 14.
9 points (11.
2 percent)
above the corresponding month last year.
International wheat prices rebounded 2.
2 percent in September as uncertainty about whether the Black Sea Cereals Initiative could be extended after November intensified, affecting Ukraine's export capacity
.
In addition, market concerns about drought conditions in Argentina and the United States, while increased wheat demand within the EU due to tight corn supplies, while the pace of EU exports accelerated, further supported wheat prices
.
International coarse grain prices rose slightly again (+0.
4%) in September, but the trend varied across the various products
.
Among them, world maize prices were basically stable (+0.
2%)
.
The strength of the US dollar offset supply-side pressure
on corn prices, despite a weaker outlook for US and EU production, combined with uncertainty about Ukrainian exports.
International barley prices declined by 3.
0%, mainly reflecting improved harvest prospects in Australia and Russia; World sorghum prices rose 13.
2 percent due to lower
production prospects in the United States.
The FAO rice price index rose 2.
2 percent in September, led by changes in India's export policy, which led the rise in October, with buyers likely to turn to other rice suppliers
.
Market disruptions and production uncertainties caused by severe flooding in Pakistan further supported rice prices to remain firm
.
However, room for price increases remains limited
due to weak overall demand.
2 percent in September, led by changes in India's export policy, which led the rise in October, with buyers likely to turn to other rice suppliers
.
Market disruptions and production uncertainties caused by severe flooding in Pakistan further supported rice prices to remain firm
.
However, room for price increases remains limited
due to weak overall demand.
