FAO Market Weekly: recent feed trends

Introduction: 1 Domestic trends: 1 Feed: 1) fish meal: the domestic fish meal market has been rising steadily in recent years At present, the market price of imported fish meal in domestic ports has exceeded the 5000 yuan mark, and the stock of fish meal in domestic ports is not large A fish meal ship purchased by Xianjing company from Peru left the port of Peru on the 19th and is expected to arrive in China in the late November According to the analysis of the insiders, it is unlikely to affect the already strong market of fish meal in China after arriving at the port At present, the prices of imported fish meal (above 63) in the main areas of China are all around 5200 yuan / ton, while the market prices of domestic fish meal (above 63) are 4650 yuan / ton 2) soybean meal: the domestic soybean meal market continued to be sluggish this week, but the decline has been significantly reduced In addition to the stable soybean meal price in Heilongjiang region, the price of soybean meal in other regions fell by 20-40 yuan At present, the ex factory price of Heilongjiang Province is still 1480 yuan, and the oil factory has no profit, so the output is reduced Dalian's ex factory price dropped by 20 yuan to 1530 yuan, Shandong's by 1610 yuan, down 10 yuan, East China's by 1630-1660 yuan, Guangdong's by 1700 yuan, down 40 yuan in general It is reported that due to the price of soybean meal falling again and again, at present, this price has begun to attract some processing factories to sell soybean meal to the overseas market At the same time, with the increase of feed consumption in the next few months, the price of soybean meal is likely to go out of the trough At present, the domestic soybean meal market quotation is about 1720 yuan / ton 3) amino acids: due to the high international market and the decrease of domestic inventory, the latest transaction price of methionine in China is about 23-24 yuan / kg in the near future; the latest transaction price of lysine is about 18.5-18.8 yuan / kg The methionine inventory in Shanghai port is about 60 tons, and it is estimated that 50-60 tons of new products will arrive at the port in late October; the lysine inventory in Shanghai port is about 30 tons, and it is estimated that new products will arrive at the port in mid November 4) other raw materials: the latest transaction price of whey powder in Guangdong is about 6-6.2 yuan / kg; protein in recent international market: CIF $485; low protein: CIF $410; The market price of cotton meal in Anhui Province is 1020 yuan / ton 2 Grain and oil: 1) soybean: as the soybean dispute between China and the United States has been basically resolved, it is said that American soybean has been shipped to China this week, and it is estimated that it will arrive at the domestic port in the first half of November At present, the price of imported soybean in each port is basically between 1980-2000 yuan From the current situation of soybean supply, the newly produced soybeans in North China and Huang Huai Region have begun to be listed, and the new soybeans in Northeast China will soon be listed At the same time, the supply of imported soybeans is still relatively sufficient, and there is no shortage of soybean supply From this point of view, the space for soybean prices to rise is relatively limited Looking forward to the later market trend, soybean prices are worrying 2) wheat: affected by the psychological expectation of China's accession to the WTO, the demand side of wheat will hold a wait-and-see attitude According to the report of the grain and oil information center, China's wheat planting area has decreased, the output has decreased, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become more and more prominent It is expected that the wheat import will exceed 10 million tons this winter and next spring As the new wheat has just come into the market and will be imported by the end of the year, the market supply and demand is not a problem But before the new wheat goes public next year, the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually intensify At the same time, the market has been rumored that China will import wheat from the United States The number of signed contracts is about 300000 tons, and the total amount of imported wheat of about one million tons will be ordered in the near future However, these wheat are only used as national reserve grain to fill the shortage of imported wheat stocks in recent two years Do not enter the circulation channel, so it will not impact the wheat market at this stage 3) corn: the main production area of Jilin has a corn inventory of about 32 billion jin If there is no breakthrough in sales, nearly one third of the grain will tend to be aged 4) soybean oil: Heilongjiang soybean oil continues to decline, and its price is close to the ex factory price of the oil mill However, marketing expert Thomas milk said that after the global edible oil falls to the bottom of the price in the cycle, the global edible oil price may rise because the demand is greater than the output and the vegetable oil inventory in the vegetable oil producing countries is significantly reduced 2、 International trends: 1 Peruvian Market: the end of the moratorium on anchovies in Peru and the market panic caused by the unsatisfactory results of the trial fishing made the market trade of fish meal light this week, with only a few transactions of Peruvian fish meal Contrary to the original forecast, the price did not fall, but remained firm The fishery authority cancelled the fishing moratorium at a time of poor fishing conditions to benefit the fishmeal producers At present, the FOB hamburger price of FAQ fish meal is up 10 US dollars / ton from last week, reaching 535.00 US dollars / ton; the steam dried fish meal remains unchanged, still at 560.00 US dollars / ton 2 The production of fish meal in the 41st week: with the end of the closure of anchovies (Engraulis rings and Engraulis nasus), the fishing volume in Peru has improved significantly, reaching 150900 tons in the 41st week, a significant increase from 7900 tons last week This is equivalent to 33000 tons of fish meal production Peru's fishing volume (tons) region: 41 weeks in 2001, 1-41 weeks in 2001, 1-41 weeks in 2000 paita 2300 705400 893550 chimote 24800 3000800 2689400 center 102500 1599900 1869300 Pisco 21300 553000 1147500 South - 392000 499700, totaling 150900 6251100 7099, 450 3 Fishing situation of fish meal in Chile: the fishing volume in the 41st week of Chile basically remained unchanged: 56556 tons, and 58533 tons in the 40th week 57% of the fishing comes from the coast of northern Chile and 43% from the south Similar to Peru, mackerel is the main fish There are also small annual mackerel quotas in North and south Chile The season of the southern anchovy and sardine fishing season has not yet arrived, and the number of anchovies in the north is uncertain, indicating that the fishing volume in the next few weeks is not optimistic Chile's fishing volume (tons) region: 41 weeks in 2001; 1-41 weeks in 2001; 1-41 weeks in 2000; Chile, North + Centre (i.e region I-V) 32136 868481 1199824 Chile, South 24420 1463562 1592824 in total; 56556 2332043 2792648 (author:) shared to feed micro blog: