Experts say China has entered a period of relative food shortage

Introduction: Yu Jingzhong, a famous agricultural expert and former deputy director of the Standing Committee of Jiangsu Provincial People's Congress, made a judgment last September that "the relationship between China's grain supply and demand will turn around in 2004" Recently, amid the rising price of grain, he went to the grass-roots level to inspect grain depots and visit grain markets After the investigation, he said in an interview with reporters that through listening and seeing at the grassroots level, he felt that the "turning point" of food supply and demand had quietly arrived, earlier than people had expected Reporter: in September last year, you predicted that China's grain production will face a sensitive period It is estimated that there may be a "turning point" in the relationship between supply and demand in 2004, that is, from supply exceeding demand to demand exceeding supply Half a year later, I don't know what you think of the original judgment now? Yu Jingzhong: I remember that at the end of last year, I bought BAOYING rice (middle and upper japonica rice) produced in Northern Jiangsu at the grain market near my home At that time, the price per Jin was 1.2 yuan I didn't want to see that this time, it has soared to 1.7 yuan, up more than 40% Several vendors reported that since the second half of last year, grain prices have risen twice The first time was when autumn grain went on the market, Nanjing rice rose from 0.9-1 yuan per Jin in the first half of the year to about 1.2 yuan per Jin; the second time was after the Spring Festival holiday, the rising trend was more fierce, from the end of February to the beginning of March, almost one price a day, less than a week, 0.4 yuan per Jin About yuan, the price of rice has exceeded the record They all said frankly that this year is the best year for grain business In the future, rice prices will only rise or fall, and grain traders will only make or lose money I looked at two supermarkets in Nanjing and found that some rice varieties had been out of stock At present, the purchase price of Japonica Rice in Northern Jiangsu has reached 1 yuan per Jin, but it is difficult to receive Since the purchase of autumn grain last year, the southern rice industry has generally encountered difficulties in purchasing grain At present, we are entering a period of green and yellow, if we do not timely carry out necessary regulation and control, the price of grain will definitely rise, and it will show a trend of consolidation and rising again and again In the first half of this year, the price of Japonica rice is likely to break through 2 yuan per Jin, and that of hybrid rice is likely to break through 1.5 yuan, which will be about double that of the same period last year This further confirms the arrival of "turning point" Compared with the situation of grain oversupply in previous years, China's grain began to enter a period of shortage Reporter: before spring sowing and summer planting, the moderate increase of grain price will give farmers a strong signal, which is conducive to the restorative growth of grain area this year But "as soon as the price of grain sneezes, the heavier the basket will be", the price of non-staple food will rise Will rising food prices lead to new inflation? Yu Jingzhong: since the reform and opening up, there have been three times of serious inflation in China, namely 1985, 1988-1989 and 1993-1995, which are all caused by the sharp rise of grain prices in the previous year or that year At present, food price is still the most important factor affecting the consumer price The Engel coefficient of Chinese households is still around 40%, and the higher the Engel coefficient of the lower income group is, the greater the impact of food price rising factors According to Yangzhou City, due to the rising food price, the per capita living expenses of urban minimum living insurance families have increased by about 50 yuan Therefore, the key is to properly adjust and control in time, and grasp the balance between the two Reporter: then, why are the prices of grain continuously reported to the police? Yu Jingzhong: to answer this question, first of all, we need to have a sufficient estimate of the cumulative effect of grain production reduction for four consecutive years Under the situation of successive years of production reduction in China, the relationship between food supply and demand is already very fragile Last year, serious natural disasters happened again The grain production dropped sharply again, and the total amount of grain in China dropped to the lowest level in 14 years, which is bound to bring a significant impact on the grain market And the first one, from the regional point of view, is undoubtedly the coastal area where food is transferred in, especially its big cities In fact, it is the coastal cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou that have played a leading role in this wave of rising grain prices In terms of varieties, rice should be counted Last year, the country's total rice output was the lowest in 21 years, and the per capita rice share was 10% lower than that in 1978, falling back to the level before the reform, which highlighted the contradiction between supply and demand and became the focus of the grain price rise Therefore, the current focus of macro-control of grain is to ensure the rice supply in coastal cities Two green lights should be given to coastal cities to ensure the smooth transportation of rice from the northeast to the South and the direct import of rice Reporter: what's the status of grain inventory? Yu Jingzhong: we need to have a sufficient estimate of the shortage of grain inventory With the expansion of the gap of grain production and demand in that year, the imbalance of grain purchase and sale has intensified For example, last year, grain purchase and sales were reversed in Jilin and Shandong In such a case, it is not surprising that inventories are increasingly empty In the autumn grain market season last year, I had a field understanding of three counties (cities) of Suining in Northern Jiangsu, Xinghua in Central Jiangsu and Zhangjiagang in southern Jiangsu, confirming this concern: national reserves Xinghua is the largest main grain producing county in Jiangsu Province, and Suining is also the main grain producing county There are five national reserves in two counties, which I visited on the spot Three of the five are standardized new Treasury for national debt project construction, but two are empty The total effective storage capacity is 480 million jin, the book inventory is 160 million jin, and the utilization rate is only one third, while the actual inventory is only 116 million jin, and all of them are wheat Because the original reserve of Japonica Rice (440 billion jin) has been replaced in the last year's rotation, it is still to be replenished, but the price of new rice this year has skyrocketed, which is difficult to be replenished It is understood that the practice of grain rotation in the previous year is not an individual phenomenon, which brings risks - local reserves Among the three counties (cities), only Zhangjiagang has local grain reserves, and the province has assigned 21 million jin of rice tasks Although all of them have been implemented, there are more than 300000 migrant workers in the city This grain reserve is only enough for migrant workers for more than one month - turnover stock In recent years, grain enterprises at the basic level in counties and townships have been "buying and selling grain at the same time", which requires "fast in and fast out", and generally do not keep grain for the new year Because one agricultural development bank implements the policy of "taking back the loan in the same year" for grain enterprises, and the second is to solve the problem of "eating" after the reform, and reduce the risk, forcing the grain purchased by the grass-roots grain depots to be sold in the same year Xinghua and Suining are both like this Zhangjiagang is relatively well funded, and there is more room for the grain sector to operate -- nongovernmental grain market I saw the Daiyao grain wholesale market in Xinghua, which is the largest non-governmental rice market in Jiangsu Province, ranking fourth in the country There are 54 rice processing enterprises now In 2002, 1.6 billion jin of rice was processed and sold I wanted to see the warehouse, but I couldn't find it It turns out that this market has a high degree of specialization and division of labor In fact, it is a combination of rice brokers - rice processing plants - rice brokers It has no warehouse and zero inventory - farmers store grain At present, urban residents "do not store grain at home, but buy it now." What about the farmers? I visited 10 farmers in each of the three counties (cities) and each of them has only 56 Jin of rice, which is enough for more than one month's ration Now the concept of farmers has also changed It is generally believed that there is grain if there is money It is better to save grain than to save it As long as the old can receive the new and save a little, the farmers with lower income tend to save less grain, because they have to sell grain when they have to wait for money Three of the 10 households visited will be short of food before and after the Spring Festival and need relief Reporter: as you mentioned, it can be said that "the national reserve accounts are not consistent, the local reserve quantity is limited, the turnover stock is few, there is rapid flow of water in the private grain market, and farmers' grain storage has gradually become a history" Yu Jingzhong: it's true What we are facing is a pattern of "consumption of grain in that year", with limited room for adjustment and a sharp increase in security risks For example, Hunan, the largest rice Province in China, is obviously short of provincial reserve or municipal reserve It is necessary to increase the local reserve of grain in areas, especially in coastal cities Jiangsu Province has decided to increase the local grain reserve to 2 billion jin (1.235 billion jin) Coastal areas are fully qualified to do so, which should be listed as an important part of the provincial governor's grain responsibility system.