Experts predict that China's soybean prices will be stable and tend to fall

Introduction: not long ago, the Ministry of Agriculture organized experts to investigate the production situation of several major soybean producing provinces in China According to the analysis of experts, this year's soybean planting area has a small increase, and it is expected that the output will be equal to or slightly increase with that of the previous year The production level and variety quality of soybean will be improved in an all-round way, and the market price is expected to be stable and falling After three consecutive years of production reduction, China's soybean production began to recover this year, which is expected to increase by 3.3% over the previous year The reasons for the increase of planting area are as follows: first, the benefits of soybean are relatively good Take Heilongjiang Province as an example, the total planting area of main crops soybean, wheat, corn and rice shows a downward trend In 2001, the average cost of planting wheat per mu of land lost 40 yuan, while corn is basically the same Due to the constraints of water resources, water rice is difficult to expand The cost of soybean production per mu of land gains 3 6.57 yuan is still the most advantageous variety in Heilongjiang Province; 2 The impact of price Since January this year, due to the promulgation and implementation of the national regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms and its supporting rules, the import of soybeans has been greatly reduced, and the price of soybeans in the domestic market has seen an increase, which has aroused the enthusiasm of farmers to plant soybeans; 3 Policy support This year, the Ministry of Agriculture Three provinces in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia have seized 10 million mu of high oil and high yield soybean production base, given 10 yuan subsidy to each mu of soybean land participating in the plan, and also mobilized the enthusiasm of local governments and farmers Heilongjiang Province plans to develop 8 million mu of high oil soybean this year, including 5.7 million mu at the national level From the perspective of trade, domestic production can not meet the needs, so it still needs to rely on imports to make up From January to March this year, China imported 2.29 million tons of soybeans After March 20, the import of genetically modified soybeans was suspended, and the market price rose It is expected that the import of soybeans will start to resume in June The supply of domestic soybeans will not break documents, and the market price will also drop Experts predict that under the influence of relevant WTO policies, import structure will change, oil import will increase, oil import will decrease, and the CIF price of imported soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be lower than the domestic market price, and the import volume of these two varieties will increase, which will reduce the demand for soybean to a certain extent, and the soybean import volume may decrease Experts believe that under the new trade policy environment, import volume is still an important factor affecting soybean prices It is estimated that according to the existing processing capacity of our country, another 3 million tons of soybean imported before September this year can meet the demand However, at present, the large-scale oil processing enterprises in the coastal areas are still blindly expanding their production scale, and the domestic processing capacity is seriously surplus The actual import of soybean will exceed the actual demand, and the domestic soybean market price will fall again due to this impact In addition, due to the implementation of approval and labeling procedures for imported genetically modified soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans will increase, which will play a supporting role in the price of domestic soybeans, and the price gap between the two will also narrow However, the general trend of market prices is fundamentally determined by the supply and demand of domestic and international soybeans Judging from the current situation of sufficient supply, soybean prices will be stable and tend to fall for some time in the future, and it will be difficult to rise.