Experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences: rising grain and oil prices are unlikely to trigger inflation

Introduction: Reporter Lin Chunxia Beijing report on the increase of domestic grain and oil prices in the past half month, Reporter Lin Chunxia Beijing Report In response to the increase in domestic grain and oil prices in the past half a month, some grain traders have hoarded strange grains, and some people are worried that inflation may be caused by this Yuan Gangming, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that the increase in grain and oil prices is not caused by excessive currency issuance and excessive consumption of the people, but by the temporary shortage of grain and oil This is a reasonable adjustment of market supply and demand, and it is impossible to cause inflation This worry is unnecessary According to the analysis of E2R and Yuan Gangming, there is no strong change in the price of grain and oil E2R This time, the price of grain and oil didn't go up continuously; the rush to buy didn't spread rapidly to other commodities and people, but the low-income groups were storing grain; there was no money withdrawal and running; it didn't reach the level of the state's emergency measures; the government also came out objectively and actively to let the residents know that there would be no large-scale grain shortage Since this year, the whole world has Soybean production reduction, shortage of purchase, coupled with drought in most areas of China, grain and oil production reduction, is only a temporary shortage, there is no need to hoard As for some grain circulation departments, it is reasonable to increase the storage of goods appropriately As a necessity of life, people depend on grain and oil, and the price of grain and oil rises, which will naturally attract the attention of some low-income families According to E2R yuan Gangming, if the money is issued excessively and the consumption is overheated, the daily necessities such as grain, oil, clothing and household appliances will rise, and at the same time some new consumer goods will increase At present, in addition to the price hikes of grain, oil, cotton and steel, the prices of clothing, household appliances and other daily necessities are still lower, and the retail prices of domestic commodities are still negative growth The domestic consumption demand of E2R has been weak In recent years, despite the introduction of many policies to stimulate consumer demand, the growth rate of domestic consumer demand has been within 10% In 1999, domestic demand for consumer goods grew by only 6.8%, in 2000 and 2001, by 9.7% and 10.1%, respectively, while in 2002, it fell to 8.8% In the first three quarters of this year, the demand for consumer goods increased by 8.6%, and the consumer demand is still in a relatively weak state According to the analysis of E2R and Yuan Gangming, some people worry that the rising price of grain and oil may become a driving force for inflation and that the overheated economic investment may cause inflation There are mainly several factors First, grain and oil are irreplaceable necessities of life If the supply is insufficient and the driving force is too large, it may cause panic among some low-income families and lead to the emergence of rush buying The second is the rise in the price of raw steel Some people worry that the rise in the price of steel will lead to the rise in the price of related downstream products, leading to inflation The rise of steel price is mainly caused by the overheated domestic real estate investment From the current situation, the rise in steel prices has not caused a large increase in the prices of other corresponding demand goods, which has been blocked back by the weak consumer demand Judging from the current development situation, there are no conditions for inflation E2R