Expert: The downward inflection point in pig prices may be coming.

According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in the wholesale agricultural market in China was 42.72 yuan/kg on June 18, 2019, double the 21.36 yuan/kg on June 18, 2019It has been 24 months since the national pig price went up in June 2018The continued high prices of pigs have seriously increased the burden of living on consumersDomestic pork prices were loosened at the start of the new year and fell for 14 weeks in a row, but rebounded again last weekInternational pig prices long-term depressed, domestic high pig prices when ushered in a downward cycle?theof the pig market, which is two days of ice and fire."At present, the purchase price of pigs is 34 yuan / kg, if self-breeding, each sale of a pig, the profit is about 1600 yuanIf it is not self-breeding, for each pig sold, the profit is only 300 yuanMainly the piglets are too expensive, a piglet to 1000 yuan"On June 19th, Huang Pengcheng, who had kept pigs for many years, said Huang Pengcheng, who had kept pigs for many years in Liuhe Town, Luchun County, Hubei ProvinceHuang Pengcheng is a veterinary origin, ten years ago built a small pig farm, self-breeding, perennial pig 200 pigsDespite the continued high fever of pigs, "bull market" duration is very long, the industry feel is extremely different, with "ice and fire two days" to sum up can be said to be appropriatesmall farmers such as Huang Pengcheng,, are "ice"From this year on, Huang Pengcheng has not raised pigsLast spring's outbreak of swine fever in Africa kept him in the mood"Don't look at the high profits and the risks of raising pigs nowIf the disease, would have been good pig, a few days time one by one are deadHuang Pengcheng saidIn the spring of this year, he turned to try to raise chickens, currently raising 200, if the benefits can be, the plan to expand the scalethe leading national pig breeding enterprises are "fire"According to Wen's annual report, the net profit for 2019 was RMB13,906 million, up 251.38 percent year-on-yearNew Hope Six And Co., Ltdachieved a net profit of 5.04 billion yuan in 2019, up 195.78 percent year-on-yearIn 2018, the Maku Group, in response to the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, made full efforts to develop "three anti-pig houses", which can effectively prevent disease, anti-odor and anti-African swine fever, successfully weathered the severe test of African swine fever, and increased net profit by 1075.37 percent in 2019."The current pig cycle superimposes the epidemic and prevention and control policies, environmental protection policies, pig product transfer policies and production cyclical factors, which are very different from the previous cycles." Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Livestock and Veterinary Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, saidHe told reporters that since 2006, China has experienced three complete pig cycles, namely, June 2006 to May 2009, June 2009 to April 2014, May 2014 to May 2018, the duration of 36 months, 59 months and 49 months, respectively, from the trough to the peak of the rise of 23 months, 28 months and 26 monthsThe current upward cycle has been 24 months since June 2018in Zhu Zengyong's view, the first prominent feature of this round of rising cycle different from the previous few cycles is the deep decline of pig storage column and capable sow storage column, and all the production of all breeding subjects are affected to varying degreesWithout the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, pork prices are expected to continue to decline in 2018 and are likely to experience cyclical lows in the first half of 2019 However, the outbreak of African swine fever in August 2018 disrupted the normal pace of the pig cycle Under the impact of the outbreak, since October 2018, the number of sows can be increased by more than 5% year-on-year warning line and the decline continues to increase By September 2019, the number of sows in the country had fallen by 38.9% year-on-year, while the number of pig stocks had fallen by more than 41% a sharp decline in production capacity caused the price of pigs to continue to rise rapidly, much higher than the previous cycle, and the rise cycle is short In terms of monthly average prices, the highs of pig prices since 2006 were RMB16.87/kg, RMB19.68/kg, RMB20.45/kg and RMB37.11/kg respectively, and the price of pigs in February 2020 was up 81.5 per cent from the June 2016 high It took only 14 months from the trough to the previous high, compared with 25 and 24 months for the first two cycles turning point may be coming .　　"As long as there are no unexpected events that have a significant impact on capacity, the pig cycle may start to enter the downward channel and the inflection point is coming." Zhu Zengyong made such a judgment about the current direction of pig cycle operation The main influencing factors the inflection point of pig price are supply and demand From the point of view of supply, the stock of pigs and sows is the most important index to judge the inflection point of pig price Since October 2019, the number of sows in the country has rebounded for eight consecutive months In terms of production cycle, the supply of pigs will resume in the 10 months as soon as possible Pig storage column and piglet supply for the fourth consecutive month of recovery growth, foreshadowing the fastest five months after the pig supply, that is, in July this year, the supply of commercial pigs will increase significantly month-on-month In terms of consumption, pork consumption is expected to fall by 30 to 40 per cent in the first half of this year, higher than the decline in pork supply Supply recovery in the second half of the year is expected to be faster than the recovery rate of consumption Therefore, overall, the high price of pigs may have passed, the later will gradually return to a reasonable price level It is expected that the national pig supply will increase significantly in 2021, further driving pig prices to accelerate the recovery to reasonable prices .　　"By the biosecurity level, capital, technology, management and other factors, small and medium-sized retail supplement column to expand production speed, time and scale, than large-scale enterprises and large farmers much slower." Leading enterprises through the company and farmers of the way of rapid expansion, while feed, slaughter and other breeding industry chain upstream and downstream enterprises have also accelerated into the field of aquaculture Zhu Zengyong said , for example, the Group of Makahara, has accelerated its distribution across the country since the outbreak of swine fever in Africa, and is expected to increase the number of pigs out of the country to 20 million by 2020 Zhu Zengyong believes that by the epidemic and the impact of epidemic prevention and control, the future threshold of pig farming in China will be raised At the same time, mechanization, intelligence and industrialization of pig-driven industrial production mode has started, the future of China's pig industry will accelerate into the era of industrial production, although the main body of production is still diversified, but the integration of enterprises, leading enterprises will accelerate the development, become the main force affecting the development of the market policy guidance to keep up with .　　"The pig cycle is market-generated, not unique to China By improving the stability and competitiveness of pig production, it is the relevant departments to reduce the fluctuation of pig price swine price swine price sourcing in each round Zhu Zengyong said One of the methods is based on domestic pork supply, rational use of domestic and foreign resources Pork import is an effective means to regulate the supply and demand of China's pork market In particular, the current production capacity is still in the process of recovery, reasonable import of pork to help prevent excessive price increases Relevant departments should continue to improve the domestic pig industry early warning system, provide producers with more access to market information resources, timely release of pork import early warning information to the community, reasonably guide the market to import pork, to achieve both to reduce pig prices, but also to prevent excessive imports impact on the domestic market The second approach is to use medium- and long-term interest-bearing loans, insurance and other financial instruments to stabilize pig production an old friend of the reporter is a big pig farmer, pig-breeding for more than 30 years, year-round storage column 20,000 head, 2019 by the African swine plague epidemic, capital turnover but come, under the urgency of low-cost sale of real estate Zhu Zengyong said that if government departments timely and targeted issuance of medium- and long-term low-interest, interest-bearing loans, can help farmers to solve financing problems, to ensure that pig prices in the downturn in the production capacity of moderate reduction For small and medium-sized farmers, they can be guided to establish a cooperative organization of breeding, or the implementation of the "company and farmers" model, thus forming a scale advantage, compaction the main responsibility of epidemic prevention, to ensure the supply of production materials, effectively establish production and marketing docking, reduce operational risks .