Expert perspective: where is the price of corn this autumn

Introduction: Martyn foreman, economist of Doane agricultural service company, said that despite the decline of corn grade and unit yield, the price fluctuation of corn market is still fixed in a certain region As the summer goes away, the impact of weather uncertainty has gradually weakened and the trading range has narrowed The price of corn is obviously under the pressure of late summer and autumn harvest The seasonal impact has been obviously felt, but where will the price go? To determine if there is a downside risk to corn prices this autumn, let's look at the relationship between the inventory utilization ratio and the December corn price low from September to December Based on our current supply and demand forecast, we expect that the inventory utilization ratio of corn in 2001 / 02 will be below 14% This simple model implies that the risk of price decline is relatively limited The conservative literal result is that the 12-month price should be supported near $2.25 A 12-month low of $2.00 or less would require 20% inventory usage, which is much higher than current estimates This analysis also suggests that the low price of this autumn may be supported near the loan protection price, which suggests that farmers are less likely to apply for loan protection this time But the upward price in late autumn has a positive impact on the market We also use the same method to measure the peak in autumn In a more conservative way, the price of corn in December can rebound to $2.50 If we adopt more strict literal translation of this prediction, we can see $2.80 optimistic If other factors don't need to be taken into account, according to the current price, the probability of price rise far exceeds the risk of decline It is clear that if the carry over inventory target is further strained, the future price outlook will be more optimistic Crop yield prediction, crop growth report and weather analysis were used to analyze the possibility of corn yield in corn belt This is what Elwynn Taylor, a visiting meteorologist at Iowa State University, said: "the USDA survey report of the U.S Department of agriculture has the most perfect record, but it has not played its due role in the past 10 years," he added: "before the first report in September, it had little to do with unit yield in the past six years," he added, observing weather growth Conditions suggest that environmental pressures do occur but are not fully reflected in crop growth levels In the three weeks of July and the beginning of August, during the critical period of corn pollination and heading in the United States, the stress on corn crops is greater than that of the same period in the past In fact, the stress on corn crops is very different According to the current situation, the crop yield should be 10% above the trend line or 20% below the trend line, and the final result may be 3% below the trend yield B, or 130 bushels / acre in the United States In some peripheral areas, the yield per unit of corn may be 18% lower than the trend yield Historically, the current reported crop growth should result in a yield of 130 bushels / acre to 137 bushels / acre, and a soybean yield of nearly 37.5 bushels / acre Elwynn Taylor said that in the past December, the adverse impact of six weeks' temperature will continue in some areas, and the low temperature in August may change on August 28, which will lead to the extension of crop growth period.